Malta Bird Massacre (eh.. Spring Hunting) Referendum - April 11, 2015

[Zanas]

Counting will begin at 9am tomorrow. No exit poll.

Well that's underwhelming...

[politicus]

75% turnout. A bit low.. especially with the high number of collected documents. Maybe some people were intimidated by the groups of hunters outside some polling stations, yelling at people etc. Even with secret ballot it is probably still easy to guess who are likely no voters in small local communities.

68% voted in local election, also lower than collected documents.

Not sure if this is usual, but it seems strange to pick up documents and then not vote.

The hunters seem confident. FKNK leader Lino Farrugia has issued a statement where he thanks all those who "contributed to the success of the Yes campaign."


Turnout for 2011 (divorce) - 2015 (hunting) - difference

1st (Valetta)   71     68   -3
2nd district     71    69   -2
3rd district        72   68   -4
4th district        73   74    1
5th district        72   81    9
6th district        70   81   11
7th district        72   74      2
8th district        73   72   -1
9th district         71   71    0
10th district     71   70   -1
11th district      75   80    5
12th district   69   69    0
13th district   70   81   11

Big increase (11%) on Gozo and in district 6 and +9% in district 5, but lower in five other districts incl. Valetta.

[politicus]

Last poll showed Yes leading by a wide margin in Gozo and western Malta and No winning by a wide margin in PN-oriented North-Eastern urban conglomerates. The South-East incl. Valetta is almost a tie.

Yes/No

1-4: 32/34
5-7: 48/32
8-12: 24/49
Gozo (13) 47/31

http://www.maltatoday.com.mt/news/data_and_surveys/51646/hunting_referendum_an_eastwest_divide#.VSmnyZPbAZM

Wonder if high turnout will increase the overall tendency so the high turnout in 5-6 will benefit Yes and high turnout in 11 will benefit No? Or does high turnout in pro-hunting areas indicate the silent No minority has shown up as well? The former seems most likely.

[politicus]

The South-East and West are Labour dominated and Labour also won Gozo last time (first time ever). North-East is the Nationalist stronghold.

[politicus]

Yes won a narrow victory, but no an final result yet. The SHout anti-hunting coalition has "conceded".

“We are 14 organisations without a political structure, we don't have two party leaders who said they vote yes; we only depended on the people. We did what we could. We didn't do it for our personal ends. Today in 2015, we know that at least 49% of the electorate does not want spring hunting.”

Seems Busutti from the Nats said he would vote Yes as well.. missed that. Wonder why, most of his voters are against it. Maybe to attract swing voters (they lost pro-hunting Gozo last time), but with the church (well, unofficially) and Times of Malta against it just seems odd.

Difference around 4,000 of 253,158 votes. 50,8% Yes and 49,2% No.

Well, the high turnout in hunter districts gave an indication, but still disappointing.

[BaconBacon96]

This is a terribly sad result.

[politicus]

All three final polls had 6-7% No lead. Pollster James Debono says both much higher turnout in pro-hunting districts, and a shift of undecideds towards Yes in the final days decided this. Gozo had highest number of undecideds in the polls and may have been crucial, but had second lowest turnout. Still, 1,500 extra Yes votes on Gozo would be 40% of the the difference.

[politicus]

Turnout was:

1st district   67.85   16,406
2nd district 69.22   17,112
3rd district   68.21   17,741
4th district   74.29   18,192
5th district   80.98   21,835
6th district   81.86   20,878
7th district   80.13   21,439
8th district   72.37   18,776
9th district    71.99   18,390
10th district 70.47   17,595
11th district 80.7   22,392
12th district 84.73   23,147
Gozo   68.04   19,255
TOTAL 74.68   

So 80%+ in Western Malta. Gozo was second lowest, Valetta lowest. 80%+ in two No areas in the NE, but in the low 70s in the rest of NE (8-10).

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

It will be very interesting to see if the anti-Muscat sentiment amongst hunters amounts to anything more than bluster. Traditionally the Maltese are boringly loyal to their parties - the elections are very much reliant on transfer harvests and GOTV. Perhaps this will be the impetus for some change.

Oh yeah, and horrible result. People are terrible.

Has anyone found results for the locals? I want to see if the Democratic Alternative get anything. (I assume not)

[politicus]

Immediate consequence: Hunting starts Tuesday.

Long terms consequences:

1) The environmentalist movement has been defeated on an issue where it had strong public support.

"If environmentalists are defeated on such a highly emotional issue, they have little chance of mobilising public support to protect underwater posidonia meadows or garigue from mega-projects. The message sent by a Yes victory to government and the developers’ lobby is that the greens are a spent force. Moreover if defeated on this one, green NGOs will be licking their wounds for years and the present government will feel emboldened to press ahead in its plans to turn Malta into an imitation of Dubai."

2) The hunting lobby will press for reinstating year round hunting. Both political parties fear them.

http://www.maltatoday.com.mt/comment/blogs/50306/the_consequences_of_a_yes_victory#.VSo4eZPbAZM

[politicus]

It will be very interesting to see if the anti-Muscat sentiment amongst hunters amounts to anything more than bluster. Traditionally the Maltese are boringly loyal to their parties - the elections are very much reliant on transfer harvests and GOTV. Perhaps this will be the impetus for some change.

Why should there be any anti-Muscat sentiment after he supported them?

GOTV always works in Malta, so you can not say election results are really changed by GOTV efforts.

Labour did swing a lot of traditionally Nationalist areas last time (fx took Gozo for the first time ever) and got an unusually big majority.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The link you posted had hunters sulking at Muscat for even allowing their precious pastime to come up for a vote.

[politicus]

The link you posted had hunters sulking at Muscat for even allowing their precious pastime to come up for a vote.

Yes, but that was before he broke the gentleman agreement that the two big parties should stay neutral - after a poll showed a 7% No lead - and recommended voting Yes. After he actively supported them and helped them win I doubt there is a backlash.

They need him in power if they are to press for year round hunting.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Oh fair enough. Any word on local results?

[Cassius]

Happy hunting:D

[politicus]

Happy hunting:D

You do realize that in the Maltese class war it is the well-educated urban middle class that hates hunting and despise the barbaric Labour voting bird murdering rural proles?

[politicus]

Oh fair enough. Any word on local results?

Not yet, just turnout.

[ObserverIE]

@Tony if you think this can not hurt Labour hard at least their opponents see it differently. According to The Nationalist mouthpiece Time of Malta this is almost a battle of the soul of Malta: Class, corruption and political power:

(even for a country with a tradition for hyperbolic rhetoric, this is still harsh)

"Muscat is out of his depth here because he cannot understand that educated people will never accept hunting on principle."

"A win for the No vote is Muscat’s biggest nightmare because he knows he will get the blame for the demise of spring hunting. He knows exactly how to read the thinking of his gullible, working class supporters. He knows how to please them and he also knows their limited understanding of democratic principles. If spring hunting gets banned, he knows hunters will be out on the streets blaming him because it happened under his watch. Hunting is an immensely political issue and it could be the beginning of the undoing of that great swindle called Malta Tagħna Lkoll ('Malta For All' 2013 manifesto)"

...

Labour has become the antithesis of the common good and a parody of what it once stood for. Power has replaced principle and power, absolute power, is the recipe for corruption. Inversely, a win for the No vote would send a clear message that Labour’s backroom deals are a no-go."

"This referendum has nothing to do with the shooting of quails or God knows what other bird most of us do not even recognise: this referendum is about decency, a choice between good and bad, a choice between the educated and the uneducated, between the middle class and the working class."

http://www.timesofmalta.com/articles/view/20150331/opinion/Why-hunters-must-lose.562115

If that was the general tone of the "No" campaign (and I heard something along the same lines from a campaigner called Moira Dalli in a report on the BBC PM programme the other evening) it's amazing that they even got to 49.2%.

Snobbery loses votes. Condescension loses votes. Making it clear that you view large parts of the electorate as being stupid or as your social inferiors loses votes.

[politicus]

I doubt it was the general tone - it was mainly lefty green organizations running SHout - but it was definitely an element among the Conservative anti-hunting crowd and exposed in the media.

[politicus]

Yes won by a mere 2,220 votes. The final tally is 126, 434 votes in favour of keeping spring hunting and 124,214 votes against.

Without Gozo the No campaign would have won by 3,316 votes!

Total number of votes  253,157, but 2,509 votes were invalid.

Yes got 50.44% and No 49.56%.

[politicus]

Share of valid votes:

South East:

District 1 (Valletta, Floriana, Hamrun, Pieta and Parts of Marsa and Sta Venera)

No 8,687 (53.55%) 
Yes 7,535 (46.45%)
Invalid 184
Total 16,406

District 2 (Isla, Bormla, Birgu, Zabbar, Kalkara and Xghajra)

Total 17,112
10,511 (61.94%) voted "Yes"
6,460 (38.06%) voted "No"
141 invalid votes.

District 3 (Zejtun, Marsascala and parts of Fgura)

Total 17,741
Yes 9,938 (56.37%)
No 7,692 ( 43.63%)
Invalid 111

District 4 (Gudja, Ghaxaq, Paola, Tarxien, Sta Lucija, parts of Marsa and parts of Fgura)

Total 18,191
Yes 9,876 (54.85%)
No 8,128 (45.15%)
Invalid 187

[politicus]

West:

District 5 (Kirkop, Birzebbugia, Marsaxlokk, Mqabba, Qrendi, Safi and Zurrieq)
 
Total 21,835
Yes 12,874 (59.83%)
No 8,644 (40.17%)
Invalid 317

District 6 (Luqa, Qormi and Siggiewi)

Total of 20,878
Yes 12,147 (58.94%)
No 8,463 (41.06)
Invalid 268

District 7 (Dingli, Mdina, Mgarr, Mtarfa, Rabat and Zebbug)

Total  21,439
Yes 13,239 (62.37%)
No 7,988 (37.63%) 
Invalid 212

[politicus]

North East:

District 8 (Birkirkara, Iklin, Lija, parts of Naxxar and parts of Sta Venera)

Total 18,776
Yes 7,540 (40.43%)  
No 11,114 (59.58%)
Invalid 122

District 9 (Ghargur, San Gwann, Msida, Swieqi and Ta Xbiex)

Total 18,390
Yes 6,415 (35.11%)
No 11,858 (64.89%)
Invalid 117

District 10 (Gzira – Pembroke – St Julians and Sliema)

Total 17,595
Yes 5,242 (30,01%)
No 12,224 (69,99%)
Invalid 129


District 11 (Mosta, Balzan and Attard) saw

Total 22,392
Yes 8,239 (37.19%)
No 13,915 (62.81%)
Invalid 238

District 12 (parts of Naxxar, Mellieha and St Paul’s Bay)

Total 19,255
Yes 8,699 (45.55%)  
No 10, 398 (54.54%)
Invalid 158

Lower No margin than expected, probably mainly due to low turnout, but also simply silent Yes voters (probably people with family members and friends hunting and/or working class women annoyed by classicism/snobbery, but who knows..)

[politicus]

Gozo:

Total 23,147
Yes 14,179 (62.13%) 
No 8,643 (37.87%)
Invalid 325

Enough of a difference to eliminate the narrow No majority on Malta.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Times of Malta piece is amazing: were they hoping to throw the vote the other way?