Bold Predictions for the Next Few Cycles

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Given the recently bumped thread, let me share some of my bold Predictions for the next few cycles:

-The Democrats do not reclaim the House for at least another 15 years
-2016 sees no net change in the Senate, with NV going GOP and IL Dem.
-In 2018, The Republicans pick up Senate seats in Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia, and Florida, just enough for a filibuster-proof majority.  King caucuses with the GOP for 61.
-2016 is the year that Pennsylvania goes red in a Presidential Election- doing so while Virginia is blue.
-Scott Walker wins all of the Romney states plus Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Iowa, and Wisconsin, for a comfortable victory over Hillary Clinton.  He chooses Carly Fiorina to be VP.
-2018 is a weird election, as Republicans make significant Senate gains (getting a filibuster-proof majority) despite Democrats winning back Governorships in Wisconsin, Florida, Michigan, Massachusetts, Maryland, Illinois and Nevada.  Republicans take Kentucky in 2015, West Virginia in 2016 and Alaska (from the Independents) in 2018, making the Nation's governorships much more even.
-Despite having a supermajority, Mitch McConnell retires before the 2020 elections and is replaced as majority leader by Lamar Alexander, giving the Tea Party someone else to hate.
-In 2020, President Walker is comfortably re-elected, but the Republicans lose their supermajority, losing seats in North Carolina and Colorado, while picking up none.
-2022 is an absolute bloodbath for Republicans, losing Senate seats in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Florida, New Hampshire, and Ohio.  Collins also retires mid-term and is replaced by a Democrat.  With King continuing to caucus with the Republicans, they hold a 52-48 majority.  The Republicans also only win 225 House seats and fire Boehner as Speaker after a 12-year run.
-In 2024, Joe Manchin runs for President as an Independent and wins 25% of the vote.  Bill Haslam wins the election, narrowly defeating Mark Warner and Joe Manchin.  However, the Democrats win a Senate seat in Nevada, narrowing the GOP majority to 51-49.
-In 2026, the Democrats take their first Senate majority since 2014 and, in 2028, defeat President Haslam with someone that none of us have ever heard of yet (probably someone about 20-25 years old today).

Now, as I got far out, it became a complete guessing game, but the point is that I expect a major Republican majority to develop soon.  But, like everything, it will not be permanent.

[Free Bird]

... I can't be the only one that sees 1980-1992 parallels here right?

[Vega]

That's interesting, but it's extremely improbable.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

... I can't be the only one that sees 1980-1992 parallels here right?

There is actually a trend that constantly repeats itself:

1. Poor President
2. All-time great from opposite party as 1 (even if they may not be liked by other party)
3. "Third-term understudy" from same party as 2 that only wins one term
4. Solid, two-term President from opposite party as 3, but one that still has to deal with memories of all-time great from opposite party.
5. President from same Party as all-time great that generally winds up being an average President.

Look:
Carter (D)
Reagan (R)
Bush 41 (R)
Clinton (D)
Bush 43 (R)

Or:
Hoover (R)
FDR (D)- even though I don't like his politics, he was successful in what he wanted to do
Truman (D)
Eisenhower (R)
Kennedy/LBJ (D)

Or:
Cleveland (D)- Even if he would now probably be a Republican
McKinley/Roosevelt (R)
Taft (R)
Wilson (D)
Harding/Coolidge (R)

[coloradocowboi]

These aren't bold predictions. They are a Republican wishlist.

Bold Predictions:

2015: GOP wins in KY, despite bitter primary
2016: Marco Rubio wins IA caucus, gets on as Scott Walker's VP. They win FL in the Gen Election, but lose NC and AR. Dems have a minor wave year, taking back the senate with NH,IL, WI, OH, PA, and IN (!). They hold NV, but lose NJ in a special election. Senate goes 51-49 then.They do not gain back House of Reps.
2017: GOP wins back VA Gov Mansion. Dems win back NJ--not that bold though.
2018: Backlash to Clinton is bad as the economy takes another dip. GOP wins back the Senate with MO, IN, MT, ND, WV, FL. They increase their seats in the House of Reps. But they lose Gov elections in key states of MI, WI, PA. Rauner and Hogan go down, NM goes Dem too. It's a weird year. They don't really take any Gov mansions because they've maxed out. But, in short, the Dems get killed in Congressional elections, especially in the Midwest and South.
2020: Hillary CLinton is a goner, presumably, and a Joni Ernst-Cory Gardner ticket seems poised to win. The polls have them up. But, the polls miss the behemoth of minority voter turnout. Clinton is re-elected by a relatively comfortable margin and gains back seats in the House, and picking up IA and CO in the Senate.
2022: Dem governors block gerrymandering, making dozens of once safe seats for GOP competitive again. In 2024 the House will be competitive for the first time since 2008. But 8 years of a lackluster Clinton presidency and Dem rule mean that the Presidency might be as well, if the Republicans can moderate.

By 2032 the GOP will either be extinct or a business-minded party that caters to suburbanites and the affluent business community, regardless of race. They may even be more socially liberal than Dems. They will do well in states like CT and NJ for the first time. The Dem coalition will remain the disadvantaged, but they may become less tolerant of free speech. They will become competitive in states like TX and MS.

GOP Coalition--Libertarians, gays, white feminists, Asian immigrants, gentrifiers, tech, white Latinos, business, environmentalists

Dem Coalition--African Americans, indigenous descendant Latinos, urban white poor, teachers, faith communities

Up for grabs--Rural whites (dun dun dun!!!!)

Those are my predictions.

[Maxwell]

lol the GOP will be extinct. Good one.

[The Other Castro]

Somewhat realistic predictions:

2016- Dems win Presidency, Senate majority
2018- Dems lose Senate majority, gain Governorships
2020- GOP wins Presidency, hold Senate majority
2022- GOP loses Senate majority, loses Governorships
2024- Dems win Presidency, hold Senate majority

Bold predictions
2016- Clinton wins in a bigger than expected landslide, Dems win Senate
2018- Dems barely hold on to Senate
2020- Clinton declines 2nd term after Bill dies, health problems, Sandoval runs and wins
2024- Sandoval wins landslide 2nd term after governing as a pure centrist, beginning of major split in Republicans, very conservative Republicans split from main party to form Freedom Party
2028- Republican and Freedom candidates split vote, Texas Governor Joaquin Castro wins comfortably

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

2016 - Hillary wins somewhat handily, but not by Obama margins, against Rubio/Walker. Democrats pick up NH, WI, FL, IL, and OH, leading to slim control. GOP picks up KY, WV, loses NC.

2018 - Advantage GOP. Republicans pick up IN, MO, WV, MT, OH, and a few seats in the House. However, Democrats pick up IL, KS, MI, and ME governorships.

2020 - Hillary retires. Cruz/Ernst vs. Klobuchar/Heinrich, and Cruz wins by a slim margin. Democrats pick up NC and CO, but narrowly lose VA.

2022 - Democratic bounceback. Democrats pick up AZ, NC, IA, and an unforeseen red state. WI, MA, MD, and FL flop back to Democrats. They also come closer to taking the House after dismantling the gerrymanders in PA/MI.

2024 - Cruz and Ernst are narrowly re-elected over Booker/Masto after a hard fight. GOP loses NV.

2026 - Early into Cruz's second term, the college bubble bursts and we're sent hurdling into a recession. Democrats pick up GA, TX, IA, AK, and SC, the last two in a surprise, and take back the House. They also win governorships across the country. A 35-year-old Lief rejoices.

2028 - Someone we haven't heard about wins the presidency.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

2016 - Hillary wins somewhat handily, but not by Obama margins, against Rubio/Walker. Democrats pick up NH, WI, FL, IL, and OH, leading to slim control. GOP picks up KY, WV, loses NC.

2018 - Advantage GOP. Republicans pick up IN, MO, WV, MT, OH, and a few seats in the House. However, Democrats pick up IL, KS, MI, and ME governorships.

2020 - Hillary retires. Cruz/Ernst vs. Klobuchar/Heinrich, and Cruz wins by a slim margin. Democrats pick up NC and CO, but narrowly lose VA.

2022 - Democratic bounceback. Democrats pick up AZ, NC, IA, and an unforeseen red state. WI, MA, MD, and FL flop back to Democrats. They also come closer to taking the House after dismantling the gerrymanders in PA/MI.

2024 - Cruz and Ernst are narrowly re-elected over Booker/Masto after a hard fight. GOP loses NV.

2026 - Early into Cruz's second term, the college bubble bursts and we're sent hurdling into a recession. Democrats pick up GA, TX, IA, AK, and SC, the last two in a surprise, and take back the House. They also win governorships across the country. A 35-year-old Lief rejoices.

2028 - Someone we haven't heard about wins the presidency.

Interesting that you have 2016 and 2022 both being bad years for Republicans, but Toomey surviving both.

[Sumner 1868]

... I can't be the only one that sees 1980-1992 parallels here right?

Obama won two terms. That alone debunks this.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2016 Dems win Senate majority 51-49 OH, PA, FL, WI go blue and presidency
Govs: Mnt and MO red, while NC go blue


2018 Dems lose ND nd MO senate and Cain replaces Collins and Titus replaces Heller who decides to run for gov

IL, OH, Ma and MD go Dem blue in govs

[MT Treasurer]

-2016 is the year that Pennsylvania goes red in a Presidential Election- doing so while Virginia is blue.

I don't know why, but my gut feeling tells me so, too.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

bold Prediction: in 2124, Chuck Grassley will still be in the Senate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

-2016 is the year that Pennsylvania goes red in a Presidential Election- doing so while Virginia is blue.

I don't know why, but my gut feeling tells me so, too.


Nope, Toomey will be ousted, and Dems will have a good convention.

[pbrower2a]

... I can't be the only one that sees 1980-1992 parallels here right?

There is actually a trend that constantly repeats itself:

1. Poor President
2. All-time great from opposite party as 1 (even if they may not be liked by other party)
3. "Third-term understudy" from same party as 2 that only wins one term
4. Solid, two-term President from opposite party as 3, but one that still has to deal with memories of all-time great from opposite party.
5. President from same Party as all-time great that generally winds up being an average President.

Look:
Carter (D)
Reagan (R)
Bush 41 (R)
Clinton (D)
Bush 43 (R)

Or:
Hoover (R)
FDR (D)- even though I don't like his politics, he was successful in what he wanted to do
Truman (D)
Eisenhower (R)
Kennedy/LBJ (D)

Or:
Cleveland (D)- Even if he would now probably be a Republican
McKinley/Roosevelt (R)
Taft (R)
Wilson (D)
Harding/Coolidge (R)

George W. Bush is beyond any question a very poor President. His only real success was in getting re-elected (probably by riding cultural trends more than any real achievement). 9/11 made him popular for doing much of what was obvious... but a really-great President would have asked for Americans to make some sacrifices to thwart the evil that was the 9/11 attack. "Go shopping" is not my idea of a noble sacrifice.

His stewardship of the economy was an unmitigated disaster. He pushed private debt for consumer spending that financed more the growth of the Chinese economy than the American economy. He sponsored a binge in real estate speculation that squeezed out investment in plant and equipment that creates well-paying jobs that finance healthy home-buying, small-business formation, and consumer spending.  

He lied to get America into a war for his cronies, and that war broke open the budget.  His loose watch over the Armed Forces tolerated gross misconduct that none can excuse. He bungled the response to a natural disaster, something unprecedented in American history. He was President as the worst economic meltdown in nearly eighty years began, and it led to the biggest increase in government ownership of economic assets ever -- 'receivership socialism'. For a loud proponent of free-market solutions, this 'receivership socialism' utterly discredits him. He had a Hoover economy and an LBJ war -- two catastrophic failures at once.  

The testimony to his failure is that Barack Obama is his successor, and practically an antithesis.  

This is not a partisan swipe. Several Republicans would have been better prepared for the Presidency and would have been firmer conservatives in economic policy. 

[Nyvin]

George W. Bush is beyond any question a very poor President. His only real success was in getting re-elected (probably by riding cultural trends more than any real achievement). 9/11 made him popular for doing much of what was obvious... but a really-great President would have asked for Americans to make some sacrifices to thwart the evil that was the 9/11 attack. "Go shopping" is not my idea of a noble sacrifice.

His stewardship of the economy was an unmitigated disaster. He pushed private debt for consumer spending that financed more the growth of the Chinese economy than the American economy. He sponsored a binge in real estate speculation that squeezed out investment in plant and equipment that creates well-paying jobs that finance healthy home-buying, small-business formation, and consumer spending.  

He lied to get America into a war for his cronies, and that war broke open the budget.  His loose watch over the Armed Forces tolerated gross misconduct that none can excuse. He bungled the response to a natural disaster, something unprecedented in American history. He was President as the worst economic meltdown in nearly eighty years began, and it led to the biggest increase in government ownership of economic assets ever -- 'receivership socialism'. For a loud proponent of free-market solutions, this 'receivership socialism' utterly discredits him. He had a Hoover economy and an LBJ war -- two catastrophic failures at once.  

The testimony to his failure is that Barack Obama is his successor, and practically an antithesis.  

This is not a partisan swipe. Several Republicans would have been better prepared for the Presidency and would have been firmer conservatives in economic policy. 

I have to agree,  calling Bush 43 an "average president" is such a gross exaggeration that you'd have to be thinking all the other presidents were a good 2-3 tiers lower than what they really are.

[pbrower2a]

2016 -- Hillary Clinton wins the Presidency easily. Republicans see a reverse wave knock off enough Republicans in the Senate to give the Senate back to the Democrats but not enough to give the House back to the Democrats despite the Democrats winning 53% of the vote for the House of Republicans. 

Congress remains dysfunctional. 

2018 -- Republicans win back the Senate with a new political gimmick. Right-wing fronts begin using outright intimidation. Keep your job -- vote Republican -- as employers start mass firings of anyone who refuses to sign loyalty oaths to the Party.

2020 -- your guess is as good or mine.

[Nyvin]

2016 - Democrats take back the Senate, winning NH, PA, OH, IL, WI, NC, FL, MO, maybe IA if Grassley dies or retires or something.  

Hillary wins the Presidency with a large Electoral College margin, solidifying the theory that the GOP is becoming uncompetitive for the White House.   Hopefully Breyer and Ginsburg retire in 2017 or 2018.    

Hillary makes for a better fit with the public for Democrats to win seats in the House.  Losing votes in city centers but making big gains in smaller towns and suburbs, basically spreading the Democrat vote out geographically, which I think is the primary problem the Democrats face in the House elections

2018 - the Democrats almost inevitably will face loses in the Senate, maybe losing the majority.    The good part though is a lot of governor races will become competitive and the Democrats might make real good gains there similar to how the GOP did in 1986.    That will make it much easier on them for redistricting in 2020.  

2020 - Who the heck knows,  I'd be slightly willing to bet Hillary wins reelection though, barring some crazy unforeseen events.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That's still only a 289 - 249 EC win....hardly what I'd call a "comfortable victory"

[Talleyrand]

2016- Hillary Clinton narrowly elected President. Democrats gain Illinois and lose Nevada in the Senate, making it a wash.

2018- Republican landslide of horrific proportions, with Republicans gaining 10-12 senate seats, 2-3 governorships, and 260-275 House seats.

2020- Hillary retires and Marco Rubio elected president in a landslide with 350-450 electoral votes. Republicans win a filibuster proof senate majority.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2016 - Democrats take back the Senate, winning NH, PA, OH, IL, WI , maybe IA if Grassley dies or retires or something.  

Hillary wins the Presidency with a large Electoral College margin, solidifying the theory that the GOP is becoming uncompetitive for the White House.   Hopefully Breyer and Ginsburg retire in 2017 or 2018.    

Hillary makes for a better fit with the public for Democrats to win seats in the House.  Losing votes in city centers but making big gains in smaller towns and suburbs, basically spreading the Democrat vote out geographically, which I think is the primary problem the Democrats face in the House elections

2018 - the Democrats almost inevitably will face loses in the Senate, maybe losing the majority.    The good part though is a lot of governor races will become competitive and the Democrats might make real good gains there similar to how the GOP did in 1986.    That will make it much easier on them for redistricting in 2020.   IL Tom Dart or Madigan, MM, MD, MA and OH Tim Ryan gov elections.  Senate, Cain replaces Collins and Titus replaces Heller, Dem lose ND and MO and Mnt.

2020 - Who the heck knows,  I'd be slightly willing to bet Hillary wins reelection though, barring some crazy unforeseen events.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That's still only a 289 - 249 EC win....hardly what I'd call a "comfortable victory"

[Free Bird]

2016- Hillary Clinton narrowly elected President. Democrats gain Illinois and lose Nevada in the Senate, making it a wash.

2018- Republican landslide of horrific proportions, with Republicans gaining 10-12 senate seats, 2-3 governorships, and 260-275 House seats.

2020- Hillary retires and Marco Rubio elected president in a landslide with 350-450 electoral votes. Republicans win a filibuster proof senate majority.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

2016 - Hillary is elected with 50% of the vote and 303 EVs against Jeb Bush (who wins 48%+ or so), losing only Florida from Obama's map. Ohio and Colorado are plurality wins for HRC, while Virginia, Iowa, and New Hampshire are just above her national PV percentage. Georgia, while going GOP in the end, puts up major red flags for the Republicans, and Hillary maintains strength North Carolina. Democrats pick up 3 - 6 Senate seats, either narrowly losing or narrowly winning the Senate. Democrats pick up 15 - 25 seats (probably the lower number), but nothing notable.

2018 - GOP picks up 6 - 10 Senate seats, probably doesn't exceed 58 or 59 in total. GOP gains back the 15 - 25 seats in the House. Overall, the House doesn't change much over the 2011 - 2023 period. In the Gubernats, Democrats narrowly gain back some states when incumbents retire, while GOP holds most open seats and incumbents.

Sometime between 2017 and 2019, I expect a small recession to occur. Unemployment probably peaks between 6% and 7.5%, so it's not terrible, but Hilldawg takes the blame. Her signature achievenments are probably immigration reform, further changes to Medicare/Medicaid/SS/SSDI, while otherwise defending Obama's accomploshments on healthcare/foreign policy, and is noted for some environmental legislation when continuing droughts cause political pressure on Congress to act with her. Maybe some incremental tax reforms as well? Steps down after one term.

2020 - Gardner is elected President, running as a "21st Century" Republican with good speaking and debating skills. Dunno about VP. Probably gets 51% - 52% of the PV, and gets over 299 or more EVs. Probably picks off one of the low-hanging states in the Blue Wall (possibly Nevada, Pennsylvania, and/or Wisconsin. Iowa comes along for the ride as well). Senate gains minimal for the GOP, could even remain unchanged or even lose seats. House is unimpressive, just north of 250? Gardner probably survives two terms, might lose Congress in 2022, but probably 2026.

[Devils30]

2016- Hillary defeats Scott Walker 347-191 in the electoral college and 5.5% in the popular vote. She carries Florida by 5% and holds off Walker in his home state of Wisconsin along with taking Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado and North Carolina. Democrats regain a 51-49 Senate majority with wins in IL, WI, PA, FL, NH but lose OH.

2017- NJ goes blue, Virginia narrowly goes back to the GOP.

2018- Republicans take the Senate back narrowly but the night goes down as a rather disappointing one for the party. The GOP wins open seats in Missouri and West Virginia but cannot defeat Democratic incumbents in Indiana and North Dakota, much less Ohio, Florida, Virginia and Pennsylvania. Gwen Graham is elected Governor of Florida and Democrats win back WI, MI, NV, NM and hold PA. The GOP wins OH and CO. Hillary's approval of 52% is nothing special but a far cry from Obama's midterm disasters.

2020- Hillary defeats Tom Cotton in a race never close from the start. Georgia narrowly goes blue for the first time in 28 years. Democrats take the Senate back with wins in NC, ME and CO. Gardner is a strong candidate but swept out of office due to Colorado's demographics. Dems pick up the NY state senate as well.

2022- Hillary's popularity is so so but Democrats are much more competitive in the House thanks to court-drawn maps in WI ,MI, PA, FL, CO, VA. GOP ties Senate with wins in WI, CO and keeps House but Dems gain seats.

2024- Moderate R wins Presidency, the right is still vocal but removed from the early 2010s tea party fervor. R's are over social issues but pass a tax cut that primarily benefits the top 1%, Democrats with a new younger leadership are up in arms.

2026- Democrats retake the House for the first time since 2010 in a reverse- 1994 style election as a Democratic Gingrich type of figure emerges. They easily win the Senate with wins in GA, IA, MT.  while holding open seats in VA, NH.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Bold Prediction: All of your stupid predictions will be wrong.

[Sumner 1868]

Bold Prediction: All of your stupid predictions will be wrong.

Rough talk, yet I'm willing to endorse this.