Why did 1994 go worse for democrats then 1980(In congress)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 30, 2024, 05:19:37 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Why did 1994 go worse for democrats then 1980(In congress)
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Why did 1994 go worse for democrats then 1980(In congress)  (Read 1565 times)
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,761


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: March 25, 2015, 06:38:38 PM »

In 1980 the Republicans had only 158 seats and gained 31 compared to 1994 when the Republicans had 176 and gained 54. Republicans did gain 12 seats in 1980 compared to 10 in 1994 but in a much more favorable map.

1980 you had

High unemployment
High inflation
High interest rates
Iran hostages
Soviets empire expanding

1994 you had

An ok economy
No War
Deficts going down
No threats
Logged
Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,659
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: March 25, 2015, 07:08:36 PM »

In 1980 the conservatives in the South still voted for the Democrats in state, local, and congressional elections, they just voted for the Republicans for the Presidency.    Even after the House elections of 80 the Democrats still easily held the majority of Southern House seats (including the VAST majority of Texas's seats....).   

In 1994 the southern conservatives more or less aligned themselves fully with the Republicans, at least for Congress (I think they still voted democrat for state and local elections though).      The majority of the Republicans gains came from the South and western mountain states.   
Logged
Sumner 1868
tara gilesbie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,075
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: March 25, 2015, 07:20:20 PM »

There were a lot of freshman Democrats in 1992 who had never been established, and thus very vulnerable. Turnout in 1980 was 52% while only 37% bothered to vote in 1994. There was also the unpopularity of several Democratic governors who badly handled the recession spreading down-ticket.
Logged
Vosem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,634
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: March 25, 2015, 07:45:21 PM »

In the 1980 House elections, only some of the earliest cracks of the Solid South were showing. By 1994, those cracks were very wide.
Logged
Negusa Nagast 🚀
Nagas
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,826
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: March 25, 2015, 08:01:36 PM »

One was a midterm; the other was a presidential election.
Logged
Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
Joshua
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,710
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -5.91

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: March 25, 2015, 08:38:48 PM »

One was a midterm; the other was a presidential election.

The midterm turnout drop didn't negatively affect Democrats nearly as bad two decades ago, just as the increased Presidential turnout in 1980 didn't help them as much either.
Logged
NerdyBohemian
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 748
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: March 25, 2015, 09:07:28 PM »

In the 1980 House elections, only some of the earliest cracks of the Solid South were showing. By 1994, those cracks were very wide.
Logged
Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,546


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: March 25, 2015, 09:20:56 PM »

One was a midterm; the other was a presidential election.

Well back.before 1992, it was usually the midterms that were easier for Dems due to the FDR generation of seniors voting Democratic. 
Logged
Clarko95 📚💰📈
Clarko95
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,608
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -5.61, S: -1.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: March 25, 2015, 09:57:44 PM »

In addition to the Southern realignment fully taking place in 1994, in Northern and Western suburbs the Democrats got killed by Clinton's tax increases (in 1992, he campaigned on a middle class tax cut, but with the huge deficit, chose to simply increase taxes on the rich), gun control, the stimulus that was proposed in 1993, and the health care debacle was hugely embarrassing.

Going with the Southern angel of American politics, despite Clinton and Gore both being from the South, they culturally identified with the liberal wing of the Democratic Party, unlike Carter, where being liberal hadn't quite become a negative things yet.

Cultural issues were also a big, big theme during not just 1994, but all of the 1980s and 1990s. The Democrats happened to be on the wrong side of a lot of those issues when the electorate was far more culturally conservative on abortion, guns, and gays (anyone remember how Hawaii almost legalized gay marriage in 1993 by the courts? True story).

40 years of Democratic control of the House led to a lot of complacency amongst Democrats, and when a bunch of scandals appeared in the early 1990s, the Democrats were hit hardest (being in control).
Logged
Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,659
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: March 26, 2015, 09:35:02 AM »
« Edited: March 26, 2015, 09:41:10 AM by Nyvin »

In addition to the Southern realignment fully taking place in 1994, in Northern and Western suburbs the Democrats got killed by Clinton's tax increases (in 1992, he campaigned on a middle class tax cut, but with the huge deficit, chose to simply increase taxes on the rich), gun control, the stimulus that was proposed in 1993, and the health care debacle was hugely embarrassing.

Going with the Southern angel of American politics, despite Clinton and Gore both being from the South, they culturally identified with the liberal wing of the Democratic Party, unlike Carter, where being liberal hadn't quite become a negative things yet.

Cultural issues were also a big, big theme during not just 1994, but all of the 1980s and 1990s. The Democrats happened to be on the wrong side of a lot of those issues when the electorate was far more culturally conservative on abortion, guns, and gays (anyone remember how Hawaii almost legalized gay marriage in 1993 by the courts? True story).

40 years of Democratic control of the House led to a lot of complacency amongst Democrats, and when a bunch of scandals appeared in the early 1990s, the Democrats were hit hardest (being in control).

The Democrats were definitely NOT pro-gay in the 90's at all, Clinton signed DADT and hardly any democrat spoke in support of gays.   Really it wasn't until around 2006 or 2008 that Democrats really started being supportive of gays.   '

The other issues (abortion, gun control, and healthcare)   were largely the reasons the realignment happened in the South and West.    There really weren't many House seats lost in the North at all (there were a few).    I think Clinton's Federal Assault Weapons Ban in 94 was particularly unpopular in Western states.
Logged
Clarko95 📚💰📈
Clarko95
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,608
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -5.61, S: -1.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: March 26, 2015, 08:46:05 PM »

The Democrats were definitely NOT pro-gay in the 90's at all, Clinton signed DADT and hardly any democrat spoke in support of gays.   Really it wasn't until around 2006 or 2008 that Democrats really started being supportive of gays.   '

I never said they were pro-gay.

The problem was that society hated gays, and Democrats were "meh". Republicans used the issue of gay rights as a political weapon against Democrats, and it paid off in the 1990s.
Logged
JerryArkansas
jerryarkansas
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,535
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: March 26, 2015, 09:51:56 PM »

Realize this, if a Republican had been in office instead of Clinton, they would have tried, and most likely succeeded in passing a constitutional amendment narrowing marriage as between a man and woman.  DOMA and DADT are tame in comparison to what would have happened.
Logged
Sumner 1868
tara gilesbie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,075
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: March 26, 2015, 10:27:29 PM »

The Democrats were definitely NOT pro-gay in the 90's at all, Clinton signed DADT and hardly any democrat spoke in support of gays.   Really it wasn't until around 2006 or 2008 that Democrats really started being supportive of gays.   '

I never said they were pro-gay.

The problem was that society hated gays, and Democrats were "meh". Republicans used the issue of gay rights as a political weapon against Democrats, and it paid off in the 1990s.

Not quite. Polling in the early 1990s show that, except for the "marriage" question, the majority of Americans outside the South already come to agree with the gay rights movement (even Idaho rejected a anti-homosexuality ballot measure in 1994!). Because Clinton entertained a fantasy that the Democrats could revive in the South, he swung like a roller coaster on the issue his entire presidency.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.039 seconds with 12 queries.