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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections
  2019 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  ANOTHER poll with Conway ahead: +2 to +10 on SurveyUSA
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Author Topic: ANOTHER poll with Conway ahead: +2 to +10 on SurveyUSA  (Read 4321 times)
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
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« on: March 10, 2015, 07:14:24 pm »

It's starting to look somewhat grim for the Kentucky GOP...

http://www.kentucky.com/2015/03/10/3738389_bluegrass-poll-jack-conway-holds.html
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Flake
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« Reply #1 on: March 10, 2015, 07:25:33 pm »

New Poll: Kentucky Governor by Survey USA on 2015-03-08

Summary: D: 40%, R: 38%, U: 20%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
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« Reply #2 on: March 10, 2015, 07:25:43 pm »

Incidentally, Heiner - not Comer - has a pretty commanding lead in the Republican primary now.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #3 on: March 10, 2015, 08:56:44 pm »

Eh, let's remember that SUSA kind of sucks at polling KY. I won't easily forget all their heartbreaking "Grimes within the MoE" polls even when nobody else was showing it close.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #4 on: March 10, 2015, 11:16:01 pm »

Wow, Conway leads 2 with SURVEYUSA 8 months out. Astounding.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #5 on: March 10, 2015, 11:49:06 pm »

Still a Toss-Up.

After watching McConnell win by 15 points in a race that was supposed to be neck and neck, I'm skeptical of this actually being true come November, especially when it comes from SUSA, who showed Grimes ahead in OCTOBER.
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morgieb
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« Reply #6 on: March 11, 2015, 12:44:45 am »

Didn't SurveyUSA have Grimes up in October?
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #7 on: March 11, 2015, 12:48:55 am »

Didn't SurveyUSA have Grimes up in October?
Yes. And their final poll had McConnell only up 5.
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
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« Reply #8 on: March 11, 2015, 09:13:14 am »

Remember, this is the pollster that got Ernie Fletcher "elected." They're not exactly a big Democratic pollster.

Plus, Conway is leading in every non-Republican poll, sometimes by as much as 12 against Comer.
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Mr. Reactionary
blackraisin
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« Reply #9 on: March 11, 2015, 01:13:47 pm »

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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
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« Reply #10 on: March 11, 2015, 01:18:08 pm »

Will The Media do its best to destroy Conway and the Democrats? Yes.

The real question is: Will it be enough?
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Joshua
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« Reply #11 on: March 11, 2015, 01:20:05 pm »

Are the KY state Democrats just riding high off Beshear's popularity?

Before they held the state house, I didn't think this race was winnable for Dems. But I guess it'll be the tossup of 2015.
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
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« Reply #12 on: March 11, 2015, 01:22:40 pm »

Are the KY state Democrats just riding high off Beshear's popularity?

Maybe it has more to do with the Republicans' unpopularity. The GOP made "right-to-work" its top priority, which has ruined the GOP at the state level.
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Flake
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« Reply #13 on: March 11, 2015, 01:30:51 pm »

Are the KY state Democrats just riding high off Beshear's popularity?

Maybe it has more to do with the Republicans' unpopularity. The GOP made "right-to-work" its top priority, which has ruined the GOP at the state level.

The KYGOP isn't ruined, in fact it's probably stronger today than any other time in american history.
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Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #14 on: March 11, 2015, 01:32:52 pm »

Someone get this guy some clown makeup.
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
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« Reply #15 on: March 11, 2015, 01:40:43 pm »

The KYGOP isn't ruined, in fact it's probably stronger today than any other time in american history.

"Right-to-work" is unpopular.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #16 on: March 11, 2015, 02:15:34 pm »

I'll be laughing when Conway blows this in November.
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
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« Reply #17 on: March 11, 2015, 02:22:57 pm »

I'll be laughing when Conway blows this in November.

What if he doesn't?
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Xing
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« Reply #18 on: March 11, 2015, 02:53:17 pm »

Toss-up. Whatever the accuracy of this poll may be, +2 is not exactly a commanding lead.
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Biden/Abrams Voter
Adam Griffin
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« Reply #19 on: March 11, 2015, 06:20:06 pm »

SUSA doesn't suck at polling. Every pollster sucked in 2014 save for a couple of coincidentally-correct pollsters; SUSA has a great track record by and large.
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
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« Reply #20 on: March 11, 2015, 07:23:00 pm »

The Courier-Journal has a big article about how SurveyUSA has recalibrated its poll this time to give more "accurate" results...

http://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2015/03/10/bluegrass-poll-revamped-improve-results/24718143

In other words, they've changed their methodology to reflect Republicans rigging elections. Such is the state of polling today.
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Flake
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« Reply #21 on: March 11, 2015, 08:28:50 pm »

The KYGOP isn't ruined, in fact it's probably stronger today than any other time in american history.

"Right-to-work" is unpopular.

So is being a Democrat in Appalachia at this point Tongue
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
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« Reply #22 on: March 11, 2015, 08:41:47 pm »

So is being a Democrat in Appalachia at this point Tongue

Ever hear of a place called Elliott County?
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #23 on: March 11, 2015, 08:44:12 pm »

I come to threads discussing Kentucky's elections just for Bandit's analysis.  His analysis is the best analysis, very yes.
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Flake
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« Reply #24 on: March 11, 2015, 10:58:35 pm »

So is being a Democrat in Appalachia at this point Tongue

Ever hear of a place called Elliott County?

Ever hear of the complete decimation of Democratic officeholders from West Virginia to Tennessee? Just because there's one county that still supports Democrats (even though it barely voted for Obama over Romney in 2012) indicates one trend: it's moving to the Republicans. In 2000, Gore won the county by thirty points (despite Bush winning the state by 15), but in 2012, Obama won the county by three points (27% total drop in twelve years) while the margin for the Republican margin in Kentucky only increased by 8%.
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