Canada: Trudeau retires after 1979 election

[King of Kensington]

Let's say Pierre Trudeau - after stepping down after the 1979 defeat - does not decide to return as leader.  Who do the Liberals pick to succeed Trudeau?  How long does Joe Clark's Conservative minority last?  Would Ed Broadbent and the NDP do better in an election?

[Hatman 🍁]

I suppose Chretien would've become leader, as Turner didn't want the job at the time.

[RogueBeaver]

Donald Macdonald would almost certainly be PET's successor. Clark's minority lasts so long as marginally less moronic than RL. I don't see Clark lasting beyond early 1981, nor do I see him winning a majority simply because you'd need a total Grit Ontarian collapse to compensate for Quebec.

[King of Kensington]

Probably a Liberal minority with Macdonald leading the party - then again he would have to been parachuted very quickly into the leadership.  Trudeau had more of a "progressive" appeal than Macdonald and tacked left in the 1980 election.  The NDP in 1980 got 22% of the vote in Ontario but only 5 seats - lots of close calls.  Seats like Thunder Bay-Nipigon, Kenora, Hamilton East, Windsor-Essex and -Walkerville might have gone NDP and the NDP may even have come close in Spadina. 

Not sure though about Social Credit - their abstention in the non-confidence vote for the Clark government is said to have made them irrelevant and Quebec turned on them.  But perhaps having a non-Quebec leader of the Liberals might have helped Social Credit a bit?  Or were they doomed to extinction?

[DC Al Fine]

Not sure though about Social Credit - their abstention in the non-confidence vote for the Clark government is said to have made them irrelevant and Quebec turned on them.  But perhaps having a non-Quebec leader of the Liberals might have helped Social Credit a bit?  Or were they doomed to extinction?

The Socreds had major demographic issues and didn't have Real Caouette anymore. However, the Tories taking some Liberal votes may have postponed the inevitable and let the win a couple seats (They came within 10% in Roberval and Beauce).