Canadian provincial leadership elections 2015

[lilTommy]

Delegate totals so far (count down to 2221!), as reported by Alice Funke:

Selinger: 351 (most of which coming from CUPE)
Ashton: 169
Oswald: 126

UFCW is the next big union that will make an endorsement, they have 160 delegates. They're expected to go to Ashton. The Steelworkers are also expected to go to Ashton.

I'm starting to think Ashton will win. Oswald is only winning suburban ridings with few members, and has no union support so far.

Oswald won Minto and St.James, they are not Suburban, well Minto isn't. She should win most/all the southern Winnipeg seats seeing as that is her turf, she represents (Seine River). Most of the core/northern seats have still to select, the bulk of the membership is there in the city.
Ashton seems to be doing very well at winning those over though (OK two of the three). Lets not forget the Northern MB seats have some big membership numbers (I think I read somewhere that Thompson, Ashton's riding, has one of the largest memberships) and those will all likely go with Ashton's way. Any other unions we haven't brought up yet?

Selinger "should"win St.Boniface (his riding) if he doesn't, this is a huge problem for him... he could win with mostly Labour/support but not that of the riding delegates.

[Boston Bread]

Most Oswald supporters should go to Ashton on the second ballot as an anti-Selinger move, am I correct? If so Selinger should be done for even if he gets a plurality of delegates.

[DL]

Most Oswald supporters should go to Ashton on the second ballot as an anti-Selinger move, am I correct? If so Selinger should be done for even if he gets a plurality of delegates.

I'm not so sure about that - Ashton is a very controversial person in the Manitoba NDP and people either love him or hate him...he is seen as being on the far left, but also personally toxic and is reputed to have some very questionable ethics...(sort of a Manitoba version of George Galloway)

[Krago]

If Greg Selinger loses among riding and ex-officio delegates, but retains the NDP leadership due to union delegates, does that make him the Ed Miliband of Manitoba politics?

[RogueBeaver]

ON: Baird endorses Elliott.

[King of Kensington]

ON: Baird endorses Elliott.

Sounds like it's basically a coronation. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Today's map:



Funke's numbers are:

Selinger: 354
Ashton: 174
Oswald: 146

Oswald did well in yesterday's delegate meetings, but they were a bunch of rural ridings with small memberships.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ashton wins Fort Richmond, Selinger wins Kildonan.

New map:

[Hatman 🍁]

Over the weekend, Selinger won Brandon East, Brandon West, St. Johns and Logan, Ashton won Radisson and Oswald won Transcona and Wolseley. Still waiting on The Maples, which started counting this morning (117 delegates!)

[lilTommy]

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/02/17/greg-selinger-manitoba-ndp-leadership-race_n_6697996.html?utm_hp_ref=canada-politics

Looks like Selinger won all 117 delegates from Maples, via HuffPo, the delegate count:

Selinger - 258
Oswald - 208
Ashton - 177

[Hatman 🍁]

New map:

[Hatman 🍁]

New map:



Oswald takes Dauphin (17 delegates) and Riding Mountain is split 3-2 (Selinger - Oswald)

[Hatman 🍁]

New map:



Oswald wins Agassiz and Portage la Prairie (5 delegates each)

[RogueBeaver]

ON: Gretzky endorses Brown.

[Hatman 🍁]

ON: Gretzky endorses Brown.

Oh Wayne Gretzky. There are two other Gretzky's in Ontario politics. His uncle Al is a perennial Freedom Party candidate (and former federal Tory candidate) and his cousin-in-law Lisa Gretzky is an NDP MPP.

[Hatman 🍁]

Updated Manitoba NDP leadership map:



Just waiting for 3 more ridings. Delegate counts include union support and youth.

Delegates to come: 405
Delegates needed: 1111

Selinger can still theoretically win on the first ballot.

[Boston Bread]

Does Selinger look favoured to win a runoff?

[RogueBeaver]

Best outcome for bleus would be Selinger winning narrowly.

[Hatman 🍁]

Does Selinger look favoured to win a runoff?

Can't say I have any idea how this is going to go.

[lilTommy]

From the Long quiet, re-building Nova Scotia NDP... looks like leadership race that will probably happen after the Federal election this year, (Feb 2016 is the date I just read) already has a candidate step up:

MLA Lenore Zann is running
http://thechronicleherald.ca/novascotia/1270631-mla-lenore-zann-to-run-for-ndp-leadership

Other names...
- "former MLA Gary Burrill (former Colchester-Musquodoboit MLA) confirmed Sunday he will officially announce his leadership bid in April."
- "caucus colleague and Sackville-Cobequid MLA Dave Wilson, first elected in 2003, is also widely expected to throw his hat in the ring."

[Hatman 🍁]

Midland goes to Selinger:



I've removed union delegates from the total, as many have pointed out that they're not reliably going to go to one candidate or another. If we do include union endorsements, the totals would be:

Selinger: 821
Ashton: 569
Oswald: 439

[lilTommy]

Midland goes to Selinger:



I've removed union delegates from the total, as many have pointed out that they're not reliably going to go to one candidate or another. If we do include union endorsements, the totals would be:

Selinger: 821
Ashton: 569
Oswald: 439

Selinger in all likelyhood will not win the riding delegates at this rate? his own riding has how many delegates? since that is one of the two left to select and likely has a large number, enough for him to surpass Ashton in delegates?.
Interestingly only one area, Winnipeg NorthWest, was won over by one candidate (Selinger) I had thought "hometown" would provide some areas of block ridings... but the North was mixed with Selinger and Oswald taking one riding eash and Ashton and Oswald splitting South Winnipeg and Selinger taking one.

[Hatman 🍁]

St. Boniface only has 23 delegates and Swan River has 22 (MLA is a Selinger supporter). However, if you do the math that will not be enough to even get to 2nd place.

St. Boniface is tonight, while Swan River is mail-in, so who knows when we'll know when they're in.

[136or142]

Probably bad news for Sellinger:

WINNIPEG, Canado - Manitoba unions will hold a lot less sway than expected over Premier Greg Selinger's future, after being unable to fill hundreds of delegate slots for the governing NDP's leadership vote next weekend, sources have told The Canadian Press.
Unions were allocated up to 691 of a potential 2,217 delegate positions for the March 8 vote that will determine whether Selinger will be forced out of his job by an internal revolt. But two sources connected to the race said unions were only able to fill 361 of those slots by the deadline Wednesday night, with a handful of potential additions still being tabulated by party headquarters.

http://www.brandonsun.com/national/breaking-news/unions-to-hold-less-sway-in-manitoba-ndp-leadership-race-sources-294322751.html?thx=y

[RogueBeaver]

Selinger is probably finished, he may not make the 2nd ballot.