Canadian provincial leadership elections 2015

[136or142]

That's crazy that an election result in another province across the country would cause such a swing in Ontario. Canadian politics are really bizarre sometimes.

It's the bandwagon effect. FPTP punishes vote-splitting, so when one progressive party appears to rise, strategic progressive voters rush to that party.

I doubt that. Strategic voting has only very rarely ever occurred on a wide scale, and its succeeded even less. The Alberta Liberal Party decline started long before the election campaign.

[Hatman 🍁]

That's crazy that an election result in another province across the country would cause such a swing in Ontario. Canadian politics are really bizarre sometimes.

It's the bandwagon effect. FPTP punishes vote-splitting, so when one progressive party appears to rise, strategic progressive voters rush to that party.

I doubt that. Strategic voting has only very rarely ever occurred on a wide scale, and its succeeded even less. The Alberta Liberal Party decline started long before the election campaign.

Yeah, and don't forget that the strategic voting website was recommending anti-PC voters to back Liberals and APers in seats the NDP ended up winning in Alberta.

[lilTommy]

More evidence that this isn't a Patrick Brown effect: PC vote is steady, while Liberal vote is bleeding into the NDP.

Yes, but Brown is part of the reason why Liberals are bleeding NDP rather than to the PC. I think if Elliott won, then the PC's would look more appealing/less scary than the NDP to moderate Liberals.

It also seems to confirm our notion that Horwath's base is less socially liberal than Wynne's.

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There are a lot of don't knows but that is a non-insignificant number of Dippers who are creationists and anti-sex ed (although it might be just reflexively opposing whatever Wynne does).

Maybe, and it might reflect some of the Northern more rural base, and some of the newer base in SW rural areas but that still scares me as a Dipper... But Wynne being "seen" as socially liberal has pulled some would be NDP support her way (as well as Horwath not really pushing much of a big socially progressive agenda, the party supports the sex-ed reforms, not the lack of consultation), even though the poll has the NDP/Liberals tied in TO and was is 30% a piece.

[Linus Van Pelt]

There's also the recent issue of Wynne's electric utility (Hydro One) privatization, which brings back memories of the fiasco of the failed Harris/Eves attempts to do the same.

[RogueBeaver]

PQ will announce Round 1 results tomorrow.

[136or142]

PQ will announce Round 1 results tomorrow.

Round 1 announcement: PQ TKOs itself

[King of Kensington]

It also seems to confirm our notion that Horwath's base is less socially liberal than Wynne's.

I suppose that explains Jagmeet Singh's statement.

http://www.weeklyvoice.com/community-news/jagmeet-singh-calls-for-parental-inputs-on-sex-ed/

Here's Jagmeet speaking in Panjabi about the sex ed curriculum for about 10 minutes.  Any Panjabi speakers here?  What is he saying?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SMGQZSecdFc

[Hatman 🍁]

Jagmeet has obviously been put into a tricky situation. His constituents are more likely to be socially conservativatve than your typical NDP riding. Problem for the NDP now is most of their ridings are more populist leaning, since they lost most of their downtown Toronto seats.

[RogueBeaver]

Good preemptive concession speech by Cloutier now. He'd be a good leader for them, as would Hivon.

[RogueBeaver]

PKP wins 58/29/13.

[King of Kensington]

I feel like I should have some comment on this, but this was such a coronation that's it hard to really say anything. 

[Boston Bread]

It should eventually be interesting to see whether the center-left PQers and unions which usually support them stick PQ him or move to QS, which is already at the teens in some polls.
I personally hope for a four way race next time.

[RogueBeaver]

Most should stick. I'm curious for comments by Dippers with ties to both QS and unions, say Boulerice and Turmel. PKP has already started the ideological conversion process (already deeper than PMJ's ever was), unironically talking about "neoliberalism" in his acceptance speech. One amusing fact: as a student PKP was a Marxist who changed his name from Pierre-Carl to PK cause Marx.

[King of Kensington]

Citizen Kane.

[RogueBeaver]

Pierre Céré, is that you?

[RogueBeaver]

They'll be lucky if his leadership is as mediocre as his CEO tenure. A bull with his own china shop who doesn't know what he doesn't know and listens to no one? This gonna be fun.

[Boston Bread]

Yet another poll suggests no bump for Brown:

Ipsos-Reid says:
34% Liberal
32% PC
25% NDP

http://globalnews.ca/news/2010547/liberals-losing-ground-in-ontario-but-still-in-lead-exclusive-global-poll/

It looks like there won't be any end to contradictory polling in Ontario, even as likely voter models are tossed out. Sad to see so many still support Wynne, though.

[lilTommy]

New Newfoundland CRA poll:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/ndp-support-swings-upward-as-liberals-fall-slightly-cra-poll-1.3104398?fb_action_ids=10205777397288026&fb_action_types=og.shares

Liberal - 50% (-6)
PC - 27% (-4)
NDP - 22% (+9)

http://cra.ca/support-grows-for-nl-ndp/

[Hatman 🍁]

Yay. In other Newfie news, they've finalized their new boundaries that will be used for the next election: http://www.nledbc.ca/reports

[DC Al Fine]

The Nova Scotia NDP leadership field is all but set.

Running are:

Dave Wilson: MLA for Sackville-Cobequid and Health Minister in the Dexter government.
Lenore Zann: MLA for Truro-Bible Hill-Millbrook-Salmon River
Gary Burrill: Ex-MLA for Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley

An quirk of this race is the divide within the NDP has been reversed. Typically the NDP has divided on Halifax-Rural lines, with the rural wing being mostly blue collar, union types, and the Halifax wing representing the "cultural left". This time it is reversed, with Wilson representing an Halifax riding and the old left, and Zann representing a small town and running for the new left.

Gary Burrill is a non-entity, so this race is effectively between Wilson and Zann. Right now I'd give Wilson a slight edge.

[lilTommy]

The Nova Scotia NDP leadership field is all but set.

Running are:

Dave Wilson: MLA for Sackville-Cobequid and Health Minister in the Dexter government.
Lenore Zann: MLA for Truro-Bible Hill-Millbrook-Salmon River
Gary Burrill: Ex-MLA for Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley

An quirk of this race is the divide within the NDP has been reversed. Typically the NDP has divided on Halifax-Rural lines, with the rural wing being mostly blue collar, union types, and the Halifax wing representing the "cultural left". This time it is reversed, with Wilson representing an Halifax riding and the old left, and Zann representing a small town and running for the new left.

Gary Burrill is a non-entity, so this race is effectively between Wilson and Zann. Right now I'd give Wilson a slight edge.

Just in time for the NSNDP leadership race... new CRA polling has the party increasing support and jumping into second place:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/nova-scotia-liberals-see-drop-in-corporate-research-associates-poll-1.3106040

Liberal - 50% (-10)
NDP - 27% (+9)
PC - 19% (-8)