Maryland 2016 elections

[warandwar]

The 90 day legislative session is about to start and Hogan's inauguration is coming up. This means that very soon Hogan will reveal his budget. Maryland's got a bit of a budget gap and Hogan has promised to cut spending. However, he's refused to talk about policy until after the inauguration, meaning he's given no indicator how he plans to pay for the tax cuts he's promised. His budget will be interesting, just to see how much he wants to shaft Baltimore, MoCo and PG.

Hogan has already run into trouble. He has picked Carroll County Sen. Joe Getty as his top legislative lobbyist, vacating his seat. As is the procedure in Maryland, the Carroll County Republican Central Committee has picked his replacement. Unfortunately for everyone, they picked Robin "not sane at all" Frazier, straight off of her dominating performance of getting 9% as a write-in for her old seat on the County Commission. Hogan has made noise about not wanting to appoint her, but legally he doesn't have much of a choice.

In 2016, Mikulski's seat will be up, as well as all the House seats and the Baltimore mayor's race. My gut feeling is that Mikulski will retire, but she certainly has it in her to serve another term.

[Free Bird]

Old Barb has already said she's going for another

[warandwar]

Old Barb has already said she's going for another

Do you have a link? I don't remember hearing this, but then again I'm in New Haven now.

[ilikeverin]

I know those of us at UMD are waiting with bated breath for the budget... things have been pretty dire here (a hiring freeze on new faculty is definitely a Bad Thing (tm) at a university that's trying to increase its reputation), and departments are basically on notice that these sorts of policies could persist if the budget news isn't good.  Combine this with Purple Line shenanigans and somehow College Park becomes even more miserable.

[warandwar]

Hogan released his budget. Not really, actually. He's releasing the full budget tomorrow, but he gave some details:

• Eliminating a raise for State Employees
• Cutting around 200 mil from Medicaid, mostly from provider rates (cutting payments to doctors)
• continuing the 2% base cut for all state agencies that O'Malley started in December
• Cutting the geographic aid formula by 50%. Basically, this means larger counties like PG and MoCo, as well as the city lose out on expected funding. How will they make up for it? That's their problem!
• no tax cuts, but a vague promise that this will "eventually"
• no cuts for the PG hospital or the P/R lines, though Hogan made it clear he is still considering cutting off funding

Overall, a fairly bland budget, but certainly a Republican one. It seems Hogan has decided to put off cutting any taxes until later, meaning he's potentially putting off more drastic cuts to the budget.
Here's the Post and the Sun

[warandwar]

Honestly, not a bad budget. He's smart, he knows to get re-elected he's going to have to be moderate hero to get anywhere in this state.

It's not that moderate, just vague. He was extremely vague with his economic proposals throughout the campaign, only saying that he would cut taxes, but never saying how. Fast forward to now and he is still saying that he will cut taxes, but still has not said how. His campaign was based on cutting taxes, so he will need to, at some point, actually cut them.

One thing to add about the schools is that Hogan cutting the projected funding completely shafts the major counties (they need to find ways to make up the funding), but does so in a way that it's clear Hogan did the shafting. This means all blame for whatever follows (overcrowding, decaying schools) can be put (unfairly or not) on Hogan's head.

[warandwar]

Hogan's budget also continues the Maryland Republican Party's brave stand for the rights of algae and chicken poo, as well as cutting funding for water quality improvement.

[Gass3268]

As someone who recently moved to Maryland, how much of a push back can the legislature give to Hogan? I know that the MD Gov has a ton of power when it comes to budgeting, curious as to how much.

[warandwar]

Honestly, not a bad budget. He's smart, he knows to get re-elected he's going to have to be moderate hero to get anywhere in this state.

It's not that moderate, just vague. He was extremely vague with his economic proposals throughout the campaign, only saying that he would cut taxes, but never saying how. Fast forward to now and he is still saying that he will cut taxes, but still has not said how. His campaign was based on cutting taxes, so he will need to, at some point, actually cut them.

One thing to add about the schools is that Hogan cutting the projected funding completely shafts the major counties (they need to find ways to make up the funding), but does so in a way that it's clear Hogan did the shafting. This means all blame for whatever follows (overcrowding, decaying schools) can be put (unfairly or not) on Hogan's head.

That's why I said "moderate hero". It's not actually moderate. It's just baiting for approval.

Sorry, I was trying to say that it's not really baiting for approval, it's just delaying the inevitable. This budget doesn't make Cuomo-esque "tough choices", it just balances the budget on the backs of the schools and the poor. This is just a prelude for Hogan, he's promising to cut taxes and how he'll do that is what Maryland will find out in a few weeks

[warandwar]

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/education/bs-md-hogan-charters-20150226-story.html

Here's an article about Hogan's education initiatives, something that's getting him heat. Hogan's defended his budget by saying it's the highest ever for public schools. That's true, but Maryland has this thing called "maintenance of effort" which says you have to either increase school spending or maintain it, so it is literally impossible for Hogan to have anything else besides the highest ever amount of money for schools. The important thing is that per-pupil expenditure is falling in most places, with Hogan's fooling around with the funding formulas.

Hogan is also pushing a bill to let charter schools hire un-unionized teachers. I'm not sure who would want to work a non-union teaching job in Baltimore and I don't think this will go anywhere.

[smoltchanov]

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/education/bs-md-hogan-charters-20150226-story.html

Here's an article about Hogan's education initiatives, something that's getting him heat. Hogan's defended his budget by saying it's the highest ever for public schools. That's true, but Maryland has this thing called "maintenance of effort" which says you have to either increase school spending or maintain it, so it is literally impossible for Hogan to have anything else besides the highest ever amount of money for schools. The important thing is that per-pupil expenditure is falling in most places, with Hogan's fooling around with the funding formulas.

Hogan is also pushing a bill to let charter schools hire un-unionized teachers. I'm not sure who would want to work a non-union teaching job in Baltimore and I don't think this will go anywhere.

In Baltimore - probably no one. But what about much more conservative areas like Eastern Shore or northwest of the state?

[warandwar]

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/education/bs-md-hogan-charters-20150226-story.html

Here's an article about Hogan's education initiatives, something that's getting him heat. Hogan's defended his budget by saying it's the highest ever for public schools. That's true, but Maryland has this thing called "maintenance of effort" which says you have to either increase school spending or maintain it, so it is literally impossible for Hogan to have anything else besides the highest ever amount of money for schools. The important thing is that per-pupil expenditure is falling in most places, with Hogan's fooling around with the funding formulas.

Hogan is also pushing a bill to let charter schools hire un-unionized teachers. I'm not sure who would want to work a non-union teaching job in Baltimore and I don't think this will go anywhere.

In Baltimore - probably no one. But what about much more conservative areas like Eastern Shore or northwest of the state?

No charter schools there (there's only 50 total in MD). Don't think there's any room for them, either (not many students there).
Here's the current distribution:
Anne Arundel County Public Schools ... 2
Baltimore City Public Schools ... 31
Frederick County Public Schools ... 3
Prince George's County Public Schools ... 10
St. Mary's County Public Schools ... 1

I think what you're saying is that a teacher will chose a non-union charter school job because they don't like unions, or something like that. I think the job would actually have to be better than a job in a public school for that to happen. Maryland has a strong teacher's union, as well as some of the best schools in the country. A nonunion charter school job just won't be attractive.

Anyways, this bill is DOA, so it's fairly irrelevant whether or not teachers would want these jobs.

[smoltchanov]

Of course - it's DOA. But i think governor knows it as well (if not better) then we are. And his purpose is simply to score some points with some category of voters. Those, that you describe, are already set in stone against him, so he will lose nothing there, because there is nothing to lose for him. But among those, who voted for him, the idea may be popular and cement their allegiance to him. Suburban Baltimore voters, who swung heavily to Republicans not only in governor, but in statelegislative races too. Dundalc, for example...

[warandwar]

Of course - it's DOA. But i think governor knows it as well (if not better) then we are. And his purpose is simply to score some points with some category of voters. Those, that you describe, are already set in stone against him, so he will lose nothing there, because there is nothing to lose for him. But among those, who voted for him, the idea may be popular and cement their allegiance to him. Suburban Baltimore voters, who swung heavily to Republicans not only in governor, but in statelegislative races too. Dundalc, for example...

Dundalk

The purpose is to defend himself from accusations that he's short-changing education. These accusations come from MoCo and PG, mainly, not from Dundalk. It didn't work.

[smoltchanov]

Of course - it's DOA. But i think governor knows it as well (if not better) then we are. And his purpose is simply to score some points with some category of voters. Those, that you describe, are already set in stone against him, so he will lose nothing there, because there is nothing to lose for him. But among those, who voted for him, the idea may be popular and cement their allegiance to him. Suburban Baltimore voters, who swung heavily to Republicans not only in governor, but in statelegislative races too. Dundalc, for example...

Dundalk

The purpose is to defend himself from accusations that he's short-changing education. These accusations come from MoCo and PG, mainly, not from Dundalk. It didn't work.

Sorry for typo. But it must be obvious for Hogan that he will never acquit himself before MoCo and PG liberals, who absolutely dominate that counties politics (i am at loss to name even one elected Republican in MoCo and even more - in PG)

[warandwar]

Of course - it's DOA. But i think governor knows it as well (if not better) then we are. And his purpose is simply to score some points with some category of voters. Those, that you describe, are already set in stone against him, so he will lose nothing there, because there is nothing to lose for him. But among those, who voted for him, the idea may be popular and cement their allegiance to him. Suburban Baltimore voters, who swung heavily to Republicans not only in governor, but in statelegislative races too. Dundalc, for example...

Dundalk

The purpose is to defend himself from accusations that he's short-changing education. These accusations come from MoCo and PG, mainly, not from Dundalk. It didn't work.

Sorry for typo. But it must be obvious for Hogan that he will never acquit himself before MoCo and PG liberals, who absolutely dominate that counties politics (i am at loss to name even one elected Republican in MoCo and even more - in PG)

For Hogan to get reelected he needs some votes from MoCo and PG. So, even though he's clearly screwing them over with his education budget, he wants to present himself as trying to make MD's schools even better.

[smoltchanov]

Of course - it's DOA. But i think governor knows it as well (if not better) then we are. And his purpose is simply to score some points with some category of voters. Those, that you describe, are already set in stone against him, so he will lose nothing there, because there is nothing to lose for him. But among those, who voted for him, the idea may be popular and cement their allegiance to him. Suburban Baltimore voters, who swung heavily to Republicans not only in governor, but in statelegislative races too. Dundalc, for example...

Dundalk

The purpose is to defend himself from accusations that he's short-changing education. These accusations come from MoCo and PG, mainly, not from Dundalk. It didn't work.

Sorry for typo. But it must be obvious for Hogan that he will never acquit himself before MoCo and PG liberals, who absolutely dominate that counties politics (i am at loss to name even one elected Republican in MoCo and even more - in PG)

For Hogan to get reelected he needs some votes from MoCo and PG. So, even though he's clearly screwing them over with his education budget, he wants to present himself as trying to make MD's schools even better.

Thanks. Out of curiosity (i like when politicians are elected from areas where other party seemingly absolutely dominate) - is there a Republican elected for something "tangible" in MoCo? I really doubt after even rather liberal Morella and Denis couldn't get reelected in 2002 and 2006 correspondingly, but still.

Thanks in advance!

[warandwar]

There are no elected Republicans in MoCo.


Mikulski announced her retirement today. Surprised me, but I don't blame her for retiring after 5 terms and losing her committee chair. She's a remarkable woman and retires as the longest serving woman ever. There's a lot of people who'll want to succeed her of course. I'd peg Edwards, Delaney and Van Hollen as the most likely. There's many others getting Great Mentioned, like O'Malley, Mizeur, Tom Perez, $RB, Franchot (not likely, I think), Gansler (ew), Cummings and Sarbanes. For the Republicans, people are suggesting Ehrlich or Andy Harris. I'd be surprised if Ehrlich ran, considering how much he seemed to hate his life when he was running in 2010. Harris is just a weird asshole. Don't think a Republican has much of a chance in Presidential-year Maryland, of course.

[smoltchanov]

Of course. To have good chances to win Republicans would need Charles Mathias, not  Andy Harris. And they don't have anyone like him now.

And - thanks! Though i usually consider such complete 1-party dominance a bad thing generally..

[warandwar]

O'Malley said today that he won't run.
Van Hollen is very, very likely to run, and Delaney is interested. Dutch is saying he might, but I doubt it. He did this last time with the gov's race.
Edwards, I think, could very well run. She'd be a great Senator.
Sarbanes' name is being tossed around, but those people have likely never met him. He's not the type to run for Senate.
Brown's name is being tossed around, but I'm not sure he'd want to run again. His running mate, my former county exec, Ken Ulman is being mentioned, but he's more likely to run in 2018, I think.
I heard yesterday that Ben Jealous would be a possibility. That'd be interesting, trying to do what Kwesi couldn't.
Ehrlich and Harris have shown zero interest, which is not very surprising. Dan "almost got third place" Bongino is very interested, but that's not surprising since he seems to love losing elections.

[Maxwell]

O'Malley said today that he won't run.
Van Hollen is very, very likely to run, and Delaney is interested. Dutch is saying he might, but I doubt it. He did this last time with the gov's race.
Edwards, I think, could very well run. She'd be a great Senator.
Sarbanes' name is being tossed around, but those people have likely never met him. He's not the type to run for Senate.
Brown's name is being tossed around, but I'm not sure he'd want to run again. His running mate, my former county exec, Ken Ulman is being mentioned, but he's more likely to run in 2018, I think.
I heard yesterday that Ben Jealous would be a possibility. That'd be interesting, trying to do what Kwesi couldn't.
Ehrlich and Harris have shown zero interest, which is not very surprising. Dan "almost got third place" Bongino is very interested, but that's not surprising since he seems to love losing elections.

Bongino did almost beat Delaney, let's be fair.

[warandwar]

No, Delaney almost lost to Bongino.
As in, you could have replaced Bongino with anyone and the final result would be the same. Actually, Mooney would have lost by much more, but then that's why he moved to a state where no one knew him.

[warandwar]

Van Hollen announced today. He's got a lot of money and connections so he'll be hard to beat.
This opens up his seat, which will see no shortage of democrat interest. Perhaps if Edwards runs for Senate, Mizeur runs here?

[ElectionsGuy]

Summary: Every Democrat will win except MD-01

[smoltchanov]

Naturally. Times, when Republicans could win, say MD-08 (and they essentially held it since 1960 to 1978 and since 1986 to 2002) are in the past. When i see PRESENT Republican candidates in this district (frequently - VERY conservative) - i can't avoid a sad smile.