2016 and beyond...

[Senator Cris]

State of the Race (September 2016).

Hillary Clinton 256
Scott Walker 206
Toss-Up 76

RCP National Average (Clinton + 1.3%)
Hillary Clinton 48.2%
Scott Walker 46.9%
Undecided/Others 4.9%

Rasmussen: Walker + 2%
Marist: Walker + 2%
Fox News: Walker + 1%
CNN: Tie
Quinnipiac: Clinton + 1%
Gallup: Clinton + 1%
PPP: Clinton + 3%
Selzer: Clinton + 3%
Purple: Clinton + 3%
SurveyUSA: Clinton + 4%
YouGov: Clinton + 4%

Toss-Up: Lead %
Lean: Lead >3% but <5%
Likely: Lead >5% but <8%
Solid: Lead >8%

Colorado - RCP Average (Walker + 2.9%)
Scott Walker 49.4%
Hillary Clinton 46.5%
Undecided/Others 4.1%

Florida - RCP Average (Walker + 0.3%)
Scott Walker 47.8%
Hillary Clinton 47.5%
Undecided/Others 4.7%

Iowa - RCP Average (Clinton + 1.4%)
Hillary Clinton 48.4%
Scott Walker 47%
Undecided/Others 4.6%

New Hampshire - RCP Average (Clinton + 2.7%)
Hillary Clinton 49.1%
Scott Walker 46.4%
Undecided/Others 4.5%

Ohio - RCP Average (Walker + 1.8%)
Scott Walker 48.8%
Hillary Clinton 47%
Undecided/Others 4.2%

Wisconsin - RCP Average (Clinton + 0.2%)
Hillary Clinton 47.6%
Scott Walker 47.4%
Undecided/Others 5%

Nevada - RCP Average (Clinton + 3.7%)
Hillary Clinton 49.4%
Scott Walker 45.7%
Undecided/Others 4.9%

Pennsylvania - RCP Average (Clinton + 3.1%)
Hillary Clinton 49%
Scott Walker 45.9%
Undecided/Others 5.1%

Virginia - RCP Average (Clinton + 3.7%)
Hillary Clinton 49.5%
Scott Walker 45.8%
Undecided/Others 4.7%

North Carolina - RCP Average (Walker + 3.8%)
Scott Walker 49.5%
Hillary Clinton 45.7%
Undecided/Others 4.8%

[Senator Cris]

The Debates.

FIRST PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE

Date: October 4, 2016.
Location: Cleveland State University in Cleveland, Ohio.
Topic: Domestic policy.

Debate winner poll: Scott Walker 49% Hillary Clinton 19% Undecided/Tie 32%

VICE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE

Date: October 10, 2016.
Location: University of Iowa in Iowa City, Iowa.
Topic: Domestic and foreign policy.

Debate winner poll: John Kasich 43% Tim Kaine 34% Undecided/Tie 23%

SECOND PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE

Date: October 14, 2016.
Location: Dartmouth College in Hanover, NH.
Topic: Domestic and foreign policy.

Debate winner poll: Hillary Clinton 59% Scott Walker 24% Undecided/Tie 17%

THIRD PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE

Date: October 22, 2016.
Location: Yale University in New Haven, CT.
Topic: Foreign policy.

Debate winner poll: Hillary Clinton 39% Scott Walker 31% Undecided/Tie 30%

[Senator Cris]

Campaign Visits by State (After DNC)

The table shows that Iowa and Wisconsin are joining Ohio and Florida in being the crucial battleground states of this election. The biggest drop in the number of campaign visits is in Ohio, that lost 33 campaign events compared to 2012. Ohio is the home-state of the republican vice-presidential nominee John Kasich. Governor Kasich is popular in Ohio and the pick led to a reinforcement of Walker in Ohio, that this year is considered a state leaning republican at the presidential level.
The other big loss is in Virginia, the home-state of Senator Tim Kaine, that is the Hillary Clinton's running-mate. As Ohio, this state is considered gone by Republicans.
Virginia has been overcome by Colorado, that gained 4 events compared to 2012. This state moved a lot toward Walker during the final weeks of the campaign, so it was most visited than 2012 but not at the same level of Iowa, Florida and Wisconsin.
Florida confirms itself as one of the crucial battleground states of the cycle, with a gain of 6 campaign stops. But the biggest gains are in Iowa and Wisconsin, the home-state of Scott Walker. Iowa gained 15 events and Wisconsin had 25 more events than 2012.
These datas can only confirm what the polls are saying to us: this election will be decided in Florida, Wisconsin and Iowa. But there could be surprises...

2012

2016

[Senator Cris]

Comments? Thoughts?

[ElectionsGuy]

Looks awesome. Great effort.

[/]

Looks awesome. Great effort.

[heatmaster]

Okay so we have had the conventions and debates: one problem about the October 20 debate, it falls on a Thursday,  the same night as the likely date of the Al Smith Dinner: so I hardly think that two big media events are going to clash or am I missing something here. Thought this needs to be pointed out.

[Senator Cris]

Final Gubernatorial Map

Republicans 32
Democrats 14
Toss-Up 4

Without Toss-Up States:
Republicans 34
Democrats 15
Exact tie 1

Indiana - RCP Average (Pence + 0.5%)
* Mike Pence 48%
John Gregg 47.5%
Undecided/Others 4.5%

Montana - RCP Average (Tie)
* Steve Bullock 47.5%
Ryan Zinke 47.5%
Undecided/Others 5%

New Hampshire - RCP Average (Cilley + 1.2%)
Jackie Cilley 48%
Chris Sununu 46.8%
Undecided/Others 5.2%

North Carolina - RCP Average (McCrory + 2.7%)
* Pat McCrory 49%
Roy Cooper 46.3%
Undecided/Others 4.7%

Missouri - RCP Average (Hanaway + 3.4%)
Catherine Hanaway 49.6%
Chris Koster 46.2%
Undecided/Others 4.2%

Looks awesome. Great effort.

Looks awesome. Great effort.

Thank you!

Okay so we have had the conventions and debates: one problem about the October 20 debate, it falls on a Thursday,  the same night as the likely date of the Al Smith Dinner: so I hardly think that two big media events are going to clash or am I missing something here. Thought this needs to be pointed out.

Thanks for have pointed out this. Fixed.

[Senator Cris]

Final Senate Map

Republicans 49
Democrats 46
Toss-Up 5

Without Toss-Up Seats:
Republicans 51
Democrats 48
Exact tie 1

Toss-Up: Lead %
Lean: Lead >3% but <5%
Likely: Lead >5% but <8%
Solid: Lead >8%

Changes compared to September:
Arizona. From Lean R to Likely R.
Colorado. From Lean D to Toss-up.
Indiana. From Likely R to Safe R.
Wisconsin. From Toss-up to Lean D.

Colorado - RCP Average (Bennet + 2.9%)
* Michael Bennet 49%
Cynthia Coffman 46.1%
Undecided/Others 4.9%

Nevada - RCP Average (Cortez Masto + 0.8%)
Catherine Cortez Masto 48.4%
Mark Hutchinson 47.6%
Undecided/Others 4%

New Hampshire - RCP Average (Ayotte + 0.2%)
* Kelly Ayotte 47.8%
Maggie Hassan 47.6%
Undecided/Others 4.6%

Ohio - RCP Average (Portman + 2.6%)
* Rob Portman 49.1%
Ted Strickland 46.5%
Undecided/Others 4.4%

Pennsylvania - RCP Average (Tie)
* Pat Toomey 47.5%
Joe Sestak 47.5%
Undecided/Others 5%

Illinois - RCP Average (Duckworth + 3%)
Tammy Duckworth 49.2%
* Mark Kirk 46.2%
Undecided/Others 4.6%

Wisconsin - RCP Average (Feingold + 3.4%)
Russ Feingold 49.6%
* Ron Johnson 46.2%
Undecided/Others 4.2%

Florida - RCP Average (Rubio + 3.7%)
* Marco Rubio 49.5%
Patrick Murphy 45.8%
Undecided/Others 4.7%

North Carolina - RCP Average (Burr + 4.8%)
* Richard Burr 48.6%
Kay Hagan 43.8%
Undecided/Others 7.6%

[Senator Cris]

State of the Race (Final Map).

Hillary Clinton 236
Scott Walker 215
Toss-Up 87

Without Toss-Ups:
Hillary Clinton 276
Scott Walker 262

RCP National Average (Clinton + 1.2%)
Hillary Clinton 48.8%
Scott Walker 47.6%
Undecided/Others 3.6%

Rasmussen: Walker + 2%
Fox News: Walker + 2%
Purple: Walker + 1%
Selzer: Tie
Quinnipiac: Clinton + 1%
SurveyUSA: Clinton + 1%
PPP: Clinton + 1%
CNN: Clinton + 2%
Gallup: Clinton + 2%
Marist: Clinton + 3%
YouGov: Clinton + 5%

Toss-Up: Lead %
Lean: Lead >3% but <5%
Likely: Lead >5% but <8%
Solid: Lead >8%

Changes compared to September:
Colorado. From Toss-up to Lean R.
Pennsylvania. From Lean D to Toss-up.

RCP Analyst: "It's a strange trend. Walker is recovering in all the swing states polls. We are moving Colorado from the Toss-Up category to the Lean Walker column. We are moving Pennsylvania from Lean Clinton to Toss-Up. But the margin in the national polls is still the same compared to September. More than one point lead for Hillary Clinton. How we can explain it? In 2012, some analysts predicted an Obama win in the Electoral College and a Romney win in the popular vote. At the end, Obama won both but the fact that the Electoral College favored Obama was recognized by all. And now, how we can explain this situation? An error in the national polls with a Clinton bias or an error in the states polls with a Walker bias? Or simply that there will be a low turnout than 2012 from typical republican states and a strong turnout from typical democratic states, as California?"

Florida - RCP Average (Walker + 0.8%)
Scott Walker 48.4%
Hillary Clinton 47.6%
Undecided/Others 4%

Iowa - RCP Average (Clinton + 0.9%)
Hillary Clinton 48.5%
Scott Walker 47.6%
Undecided/Others 3.9%

New Hampshire - RCP Average (Clinton + 2.4%)
Hillary Clinton 49.4%
Scott Walker 47%
Undecided/Others 3.6%

Ohio - RCP Average (Walker + 2.1%)
Scott Walker 49.2%
Hillary Clinton 47.1%
Undecided/Others 3.7%

Pennsylvania - RCP Average (Clinton + 2.8%)
Hillary Clinton 49.3%
Scott Walker 46.5%
Undecided/Others 4.2%

Wisconsin - RCP Average (Clinton + 0.2%)
Hillary Clinton 48%
Scott Walker 47.8%
Undecided/Others 4.2%

Nevada - RCP Average (Clinton + 3.3%)
Hillary Clinton 49.9%
Scott Walker 46.6%
Undecided/Others 3.5%

Virginia - RCP Average (Clinton + 3.9%)
Hillary Clinton 50%
Scott Walker 46.1%
Undecided/Others 3.9%

Colorado - RCP Average (Walker + 3.5%)
Scott Walker 50.1%
Hillary Clinton 46.6%
Undecided/Others 3.3%

North Carolina - RCP Average (Walker + 4.3%)
Scott Walker 50.3%
Hillary Clinton 46%
Undecided/Others 3.7%

[Senator Cris]

I'm Nate Silver and this is our final Senate forecast. According to our forecast, the most likely result is a Republican majority with 51 seats and Democrats/Independents having 49 seats. But it's close. Speaking of the seats in which the favorite is under 60% of probability to win, if Democrats will retain the seat in Nevada and will gain seats in both Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, then they will have 50 seats. As you know, if there is a tie, the Vice President breaks the tie. And if Clinton will be elected President, Senator Tim Kaine breaks the tie in favor of Democrats. If Walker wins, Governor John Kasich breaks the tie in favor of Republicans.
So, it's close, but at the same time is hard for Democrats. To gain a majority, they should win in all 3 of Nevada, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire and at the same time they should win the presidency. It's possible, but unlikely.

Let's take a look at our percentages.
The democratic candidates are 100% favored to hold in California, Connecticut, Hawaii, New York, Vermont, Washington, Maryland and Oregon.

Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth is a 85% favored to defeat incumbent republican Mark Kirk in the state of Illinois. Kirk is a moderate republican and this can help him in Illinois, but this state is a democratic state and also a presidential turnout is not good news for the incumbent Senator. Don't forget that Kirk narrowly won in a midterm year, 2010, that was a GOP wave year. So Kirk's chances are very slims here.

Former U.S. Senator Russ Feingold has a 83% probability to gain his old seat in Wisconsin, defeating incumbent Ron Johnson. If you take a look at the recent polling, you can see that Johnson is doing worse that Sen. Mark Kirk. But our forecast has the Wisconsin republican in a slightly better position than his colleague from Illinois because Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker is at the top of the GOP ticket and if Walker will win his home state by a large margin (very improbable), Johnson will be favored thanks to Walker's cottails. But it's improbable. Feingold is a strong favorite here.

Incumbent democratic Senator Micheal Bennet is a 78% favored to retain his seat in Colorado. Colorado is a state that trended republican during the presidential campaign and now Walker is favorite to win it and this helped republican Walker Stapleton, but despite this he is still trailing in the polls. Bennet is favored here and he is favored to get a second term in the U.S. Senate.

Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid is retiring in Nevada. This is an open seat and democrats have to retain it. It's a very close race. In the most recent polls, democrat Cortez-Masto is leading but not more than one point. Both Cortez-Masto and republican Lieutenant Governor Mark Hutchinson are great candidates that ran great campaigns, but the fact that 2016 is a presidential year and that Nevada is a trending democratic state allow us to give a 55% probability of victory for the democrat.

It's anyone game in Pennsylvania. Incumbent Senator Pat Toomey and Democrat Joe Sestak are tied in the most recent polls and really, it's anyone game. Toomey is popular, but Sestak ran a great campaign than expected. This race is winnable for both parties and our forecast has Sestak as a 51% favorite only because of the fact that Pennsylvania is a democratic leaning state and only because this year is a presidential year, that means an high turnout than 2010, when Toomey narrowly defeated Sestak.

A very close race in New Hampshire, where republican Senator Kelly Ayotte is challanged by popular Governor Maggie Hassan. The race can go either way, but in the recent weeks all 3 republican candidates on the ballot (Walker, Ayotte and Sununu) recovered in the polls and that's why we are giving to Senator Ayotte a 52% probability of winning. It's still anyone game, but if we should find a favorite, Ayotte is that.

Incumbent republican Rob Portman is a 75% favorite to be re-elected in the state of Ohio. Democrat Ted Strickland is a good candidate that ran a good campaign, but Ohio is trending republican and the fact that popular Ohio Governor John Kasich is in the GOP ticket is helping Portman a lot. Portman is the clear favorite here, and Strickland can only hope in a very good environment for the Democrats.

Senator Marco Rubio is the clear favorite in the Florida Senate race, with a 91% chance of winning. Democratic Representative Patrick Murphy is a good candidate, but Rubio is very popular in Florida, so popular that he is running 3 points ahead of Scott Walker in the most recent polls.

Former Senator Kay Hagan is challenging Senator Richard Burr in North Carolina. Hagan lost by 2 points in 2014 to Senator Thom Tillis, and Burr has a 96% chance of defeating here this year. North Carolina is a state that leans republican and Clinton is not close to Walker at the presidential level, so no hope for Hagan here.

Others republicans are favorite by a 98-2 to a 100-0 margin in Arizona, Georgia, Missouri, Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota and Utah.

[Senator Cris]

I'm Nate Silver and this is our final presidential forecast. According to our forecast, the most likely result is a Clinton victory in the Electoral College with 276 electoral votes, compared to Scott Walker's 262. But it's close. As you can see, in 3 states the favorite has not more than a 54% chance to win. These states are Florida, Iowa and Wisconsin for a total of 45 electoral votes that can go either way. So, Clinton can win with 305 electoral votes or Walker can get 278 electoral votes. It's close, but we have found a favorite in these states.

Let's take a look at the most interesting states. Clinton is favored to win by huge margins in the typical democratic states. We are giving a 3% chance to Scott Walker in Minnesota because of the recent polls showing a recover of the republican nominee here, but it's very unlikely.

Hillary Clinton is a 92% favored to win in Virginia. Virginia was a key swing state in 2012, but this state is trending democratic. Hillary is popular here and the pick of Virginia Senator Tim Kaine has secured the state for her.

The democratic nominee has a 86% chance of victory in Nevada. Scott Walker will do better than Mitt Romney here, but he is not a good fit to make this state competitive again.

The former Secretary of State has a 79% chance of winning the state of Pennsylvania. Clinton is still the favorite here, but Walker recovered in the latest weeks. Republicans are confident that this state will be close again, considered that both Walker and Kasich campaigned in Pennsylvania in the last week of campaign. We can see this state going to Walker, but only in case of a republican landslide, that is very improbable. Clinton will win here.

Clinton is a 75% favored to win New Hampshire. She is keeping a lead here, but the democratic nominee has not campaigned so much here, considering this state already gone for her. Walker campaign is sure that a new 2000 scenario here is not out of possibilities. It will be close, but at the end Clinton will win New Hampshire.

Here we go. Clinton has a 52% chance to win the crucial state of Iowa. Walker is the governor of a state that is next to Iowa. Walker is a midwestern and this helped the republican nominee in this state, but Hillary Clinton is keeping a small lead here. It will be very close and according to our model, the winner will win with a >1% margin. It's close, but Clinton is a very slightly favorite here. But a Walker victory is still possible and we wouldn't be shocked.

Wisconsin is another crucial state. Wisconsin is a democratic-leaning state, but it's the home state of Governor Scott Walker. This helped a lot Walker, but he is not leading in the recent polls. It's almost a tie, but Clinton is keeping a very very slim lead. Wisconsin voters are divided about Walker's tenure as Governor. A recent CNN poll showed that 51% of Wisconsin voters approve of his job. 46% disapprove. Its approval are in a positive territory, but are not enough to guarantee him the state and at the end, his problems with unions and the Wisconsin's democratic fundamentals can give the state to Hillary Clinton. In our model, both candidates have a 50% chance of winning Wisconsin. But in our simulation, Clinton has a 0.05% lead over Walker. That's why we are assigning the state to Hillary Clinton.

Another close state is Florida, where we assigning to Walker a 54% chance of winning. In 2012, President Obama won by less than a point here. But 2016 is not 2012. The environment is more friendly to the Republicans and so Walker is the favorite here, but not by a large margin. Hillary Clinton is relatively popular in Florida and she is trailing Walker, but by less than a point in the most recent polls. Walker is slighty favored to win in Florida, but it will be close, and we won't be surprised if Clinton pulls off a win in the Sunshine State.

Governor Scott Walker has a 83% chance to win Ohio. Ohio is a state that is trending republican. Scott Walker is a good fit for Ohio voters but the most important factor is the pick of Governor John Kasich as his running mate. Kasich is a very popular governor in Ohio and this pick helped Walker to secure this state for the republicans. In the average of polls, Walker leads by only 2 points, but we believe that the Wisconsin Governor will win this state by more than 2 points.

We have Scott Walker as a 91% favored to win in the state of Colorado. Clinton is not popular in Colorado. This state had some problems with the Clintons in the past and Walker secured it for the GOP during the campaign. He won big in the Colorado primary and looks like he is not a bad fit for this state.

Walker is favored to win by a rapport of 100-0 to 96-4 in the other states. Democrats hoped to make North Carolina competitive again in 2016, but this year this state is secured for the republicans, in both Senate and Presidential election (with Walker with a 96% chance to win).

Karl Rove: Walker over 300.

Scott Walker 303
Hillary Clinton 235

Donna Brazile: Clinton will win 3/3 of crucial swing states.

Hillary Clinton 305
Scott Walker 233

NEXT: ELECTION NIGHT!

[ElectionsGuy]

I can't wait for the first states to come in.

[Senator Cris]

Election Night in America.

CNN Election Intro:
Narrator: "The presidential race has been won by Governor Ronald Reagan of California. George Herbert Walker Bush, forty first President of the United States. Governor Clinton is now President Bill Clinton. Too close to call. George W. Bush re-elected. Barack Obama, President Elect of the United States. This is CNN."

Blitzer: "This is a crucial moment for the presidential candidates and for the american people."
Cooper: "We are waiting for the first results on this election night in America."

CNN Election Intro:
Narrator: "Voters are choosing and America is waiting for the first results and for the last word on who wins the White House."
Kaine: "The next President of the United States, Hillary Clinton!"
Kasich: "The next President of the United States, Scott Walker!"
Narrator: "Tonight, Hillary Clinton and Scott Walker battles for the highest office in the land."
Walker: "Florida, you'll make it happen!"
Clinton: "I'm sure that Wisconsin will show his true colors."
Kasich: "Ohio, can I count on you again?"
Kaine: "Togheter we will win Iowa!"
Narrator: "A contest that has been close for months, in a nation divided between red and blue. We don't know who will win..."
Walker: "I'm sure that we will win this one. I'm sure we will win this election for the future of our children."
Clinton: "We will win this election. It's crucial for our future and Americans will do the right thing!"
Narrator: "Now, CNN's coverage of election night in America. The fight for the presidency, the battle for Congress and the issues dividing the nation."
Walker: "Do you want another Washington politician or do you want bold ideas for change? Do you want more of the same or do you want change?"
Crowd: "Change!"
Clinton: "Do you want a President that works for a secure America, a stronger America or do you want an inexperienced politician leading our nation?"
Crowd: "We want you!"
Narrator: "The polls are open. The nation and the world are watching and history is going to be made. Right now."

Blitzer: "It's Election Night 2016 on CNN. I would like to welcome all of our viewers all around the world. It's not just the presidency that's at stake, there are also interesting Senate and gubernatorial races that we will cover tonight.
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton easily won the democratic nomination, with his opponent Jim Webb dropping out of the race after a 37 points loss in the Iowa caucuses. Clinton chose Virginia Senator Tim Kaine as running mate. With this move, Democrats are sure to have added the swing state of Virginia in the Clinton's column.
Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker won the republican nomination in a crowd of 14 candidates, that decreased to 12 candidates in Iowa, 8 in New Hampshire and then to 3 candidates in Super Tuesday. Mitt Romney dropped out of the race after Michigan and then Scott Walker defeated Senator Rand Paul. Walker chose Ohio Governor John Kasich as his running mate."

Cooper: "Governor Scott Walker was able to close the gap on Hillary Clinton. It's a close race. The RealClearPolitics average has Hillary Clinton ahead of 1.2 points over Scott Walker. Our final poll shows a 2 point lead for the democratic nominee with 49% to Scott Walker's 47%. It's going to be a close and interesting race, so stay tuned."

Blitzer: "John King will show us the results and we will be able to analyze these results thanks to our Magic Wall. Dana Bash will cover the Senate results. Jake Tapper will cover the gubernatorial results. Anderson Cooper and our analysts will debate the results and the reactions coming from Clinton's headquarters and from Scott Walker's headquarters.
The first 6 states will be closing their polls in a minute. Between these 6 states, the most interesting at presidential level are Georgia and Virginia. Virginia is the home state of Senator Tim Kaine, the democratic vice presidential nominee. Georgia is a state that is expected to be won by Governor Walker tonight, but that might be very competitive if it's going to be a democratic landslide. Also there is an interesting gubernatorial race in Indiana. Stay with us. We'll be back in a while."

I can't wait for the first states to come in.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Woot woot it's happening!

[tmthforu94]

Very excited for Election Night!

[NHI]

Very excited for Election Night!

[jaichind]

I say Walker wins.

[heatmaster]

I say the actual election will be decided before this thread on election night 2016 is done😊

[Senator Cris]

Blitzer: "It's 7 PM on the east coast and we are ready to make some projections, right now.

Alright, we can project that Governor Scott Walker will win the state of Indiana and its 11 electoral votes. Not a real surprise. Indiana voted for President Obama in 2008, but from 2012 Indiana is confirming itself as a republican state at the presidential level.

✔ Scott Walker 58.5%
Hillary Clinton 40.2%

South Carolina we can project. The state of South Carolina and its 9 electoral votes will go to the Walker's column. Looks like Governor Walker is doing better than Mitt Romney here, because we are able to project South Carolina immediately at poll closings.

✔ Scott Walker 57.9%
Hillary Clinton 41.6%

No surprise in Kentucky. Despite early hopes of democrats of make this state competitive, we can project that the 8 electoral votes of Kentucky will go to the republican nominee Scott Walker.

✔ Scott Walker 60.5%
Hillary Clinton 39.2%

We can project a state for Hillary Clinton. We are projecting that Vermont and its 3 electoral votes will go to the democratic nominee. Vermont is a solid democratic state and it's not a surprise.

✔ Hillary Clinton 65.2%
Scott Walker 32.7%

We are not able to project a winner in the state of Georgia and in the state of Virginia, the home state of the democratic vice-presidential nominee Tim Kaine.

Take a look at this. This is the electoral map. As of now, Governor Scott Walker is at 28 electoral votes. Secretary Hillary Clinton has 3 electoral votes, awarded from the state of Vermont.

Scott Walker 28 (57.7% of popular vote)
Hillary Clinton 3 (41.4%)
No Projection 29

270 needed to win.

We have not enough informations to project Georgia and Virginia, but we can take a look at our exit polls. Remember: these are only exit poll that may not neccesarily reflect the outcome of the race.

Virginia
Hillary Clinton 52%
Scott Walker 46%

Georgia
Scott Walker 51%
Hillary Clinton 48%

If these exit polls are right, this is certainly a very good news for Hillary Clinton. She is leading Walker by 6 points in Virginia and is trailing the republican nominee by only 3 points in Georgia, a state condidered gone for the Wisconsin Governor."

King: "Let's see the early results from Virginia and Georgia. 2% reported in the state of Virginia and Scott Walker is leading Hillary Clinton by a huge margin. But it's normal, considered that the first counties to reported are republican counties. When the democratic areas will report their votes, Hillary Clinton will close the gap and probably will be in the lead. It's going to be the same trend of the previous elections. 2008, 2012, 2014. Only 2% reported, but looks like our exit poll will not be at all right.

Virginia - 2% reported.



Scott Walker 57.6%
Hillary Clinton 41.7%

Lee County. 8% reported. Walker leads 71-27, that is the same margin of victory of Mitt Romney in 2012.
Cumberland Conty. Romney won it 50-47 four years ago. Now Walker is leading 50-48 with 22% reported here.
Frederick County. 12% reported. Romney won this county with 63% to Obama's 35%.  Walker is leading with 64% to Clinton's 33%.
Northampton County. Obama won this county by 16 points. Now, with 7% reported here, Clinton is winning it by 18 points.
And finally, let's take a look at 2 swing counties. Montgomery County. Romney won it by 103 votes in 2012, 0.25%. Now, Clinton is leading by a mere 0.8%.
Chesapeake City. President Obama won this city by 1 point. Now, the democratic nominee is winning this city by a margin of 0.4% percent
So, as you can see, there aren't shocking changes in the first counties that showed results. If this trend holds, looks like Clinton will win this state by the same margin of victory of President Obama, 4 points and not by 6 points as showed in our exit poll. We'll see.

Now, let's go to Georgia. Georgia has a republican counting bias and so Walker is leading big with 4% reported. Remember that the Atlanta area has not reported yet, so Clinton will recover here.

Georgia - 4% reported.



Scott Walker 58.9%
Hillary Clinton 40%

Camden County. Romney won it 63-35. Now, Walker is leading 61-36 with 23% reported.
Echols County. Romney won this county by a margin of 67 points in 2012, now Walker is winning it by 66 points.
Stewart County. President Obama has won this county 64-36 in 2012. With 6% reported, Hillary Clinton is winning this county 65-35.
Jenkins County. Romney won this county 56-44. Now, Walker is winning this county 55-44.
So, there is a Clinton improvement compared to the Obama's performance in 2012. We'll see in the next hour if this improvement will be enough to made this state competitive. If this trend holds, it won't be enough, but don't forget that Atlanta has not reported yet and who knows, there might be a strong democratic improvement here."

[jaichind]

Not all is lost for Walker.  That Walker outperformed Romney in Indiana bodes well for places like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.  It might come down to Florida.

[Classic Conservative]

This is a great timeline so far, Cris, please continue!!! Love your maps, how do you make them???

[Senator Cris]

Blitzer: "Don't forget that Senate control is at stake tonight. Dana Bash, do we have any results?"

Bash: "Yes Wolf. We are able to project a winner in the Indiana Senate race. Incumbent republican Dan Coats is retiring and we project that Dan Coats's Chief of Staff Eric Holcomb will be the next United States Senator from Indiana. He defeated the democrat Baron Hill.

✔ Eric Holcomb 56.2%
Baron Hill 41.5%

We can also project that Senator Rand Paul, a GOP national leader, will be re-elected as United States Senator from Kentucky. He ran for the presidency, but after some loss to Scott Walker, he dropped out of the presidential race and tonight he defeated his 2010 opponent Jack Conway.

✔ * Rand Paul 57.5%
Jack Conway 42.2%

Tim Scott, the first African American Senator from South Carolina, has been re-elected as he ran unopposed this year. He is one of the rising stars of the Republican Party, so keep an eye on him.

✔ * Tim Scott 100%

Senator Pat Leahy will be re-elected for another six years in Washington, representing the state of Vermont. This is the eight term for Senator Leahy, that ran unopposed this year, because the GOP decided to put their forces on the gubernatorial race.

✔ * Pat Leahy 100%

We are not able to project a winner in the Georgia Senate race. Incumbent Senator Johnny Isakson is challenged by the democrat Jason Carter, the grandson of former President Jimmy Carter. Isakson is favored to win according to our exit poll, but we don't feel ready to project a winner in Georgia.

Georgia - 3% reported.
* Johnny Isakson 60.1%
Jason Carter 38.7%

This is the Senate map. To be in the majority, the Democrats need to retain all their seats (Nevada is the most close) and to gain 4 seats if Hillary Clinton will be President, as Tim Kaine would break the tie in favor of Democrats or to gain 5 seats if Scott Walker will win the presidency. As of now, no net changes.

Democrats 37
Republicans 33
No Projection 1

Back to you, Wolf."

Blitzer: "Thank you Dana. Jake Tapper will cover the gubernatorial races for us. Jake, do we have any projection to make?"

Tapper: "Yes Wolf. We are able to project that Governor Peter Shumlin will be re-elected in the state of Vermont. In 2010 and 2014, Shumlin won a plurality of the vote and so he needed the vote of the Vermont Assembly, but this time he will win with a majority. Republicans didn't contest the Senate race in order to put their forces on the gubernatorial race with 2014 nominee Scott Milne.

✔ Peter Shumlin 55.4%
Scott Milne 40.8%

As expected, we are not able to project a winner in the Indiana gubernatorial race. Incumbent republican Governor Pence was under national reflectors and controversy because of the sign of the Religious Freedom Law. He is challenged by 2012 democratic nominee John Gregg. It's going to be a very close race.

Indiana - 14% reported.
* Mike Pence 49.9%
John Gregg 48.7%

Back to you, Wolf."

Blitzer: "Thank you Jake. We'll be back in a while. At 7.30 PM on east cost the polls will close in Ohio, North Carolina and West Virginia. Stay with us on CNN."

This is a great timeline so far, Cris, please continue!!! Love your maps, how do you make them???

Paint, then Paint.net

[BigVic]

How do you edit the maps in the Atlas TL using Paint?!?

[Classic Conservative]

Please, go on