2016 and beyond...

[Senator Cris]

Author's note: The Survivor is still alive and despite the starting of this timeline, I will complete it with 2018 Midterm Election and 2020 Presidential Election. My new timeline was planned to start at the end of The Survivor, but I decided to start it now, because of the recent developments.
I learned from my errors and so not center aligned posts and this timeline will be more detailed than the precedents. It's not my intention to make the "perfect timeline", because it's impossible, but I hope that you will be involved in this. Good reading!

2016 and beyond...


Jeb Bush announcing his candidacy in Jacksonville, FL.

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush has officially announced his candidacy for the Presidency of the United States.
Bush gave a strong acceleration to his plans. In December, he announced that he was actively exploring the possibility to run for President and in the first days of January he announced the formation of Right to Rise PAC. Bush was the last person from whom expect that acceleration and he is obliging the remained potential candidates to take their decisions soon.
But there is another major contender that hasn't declared candidacy for President, but that is actually strongly considering a third run for the White House: Mitt Romney.
Various sources told that Romney is giving critics to Bush's bid, saying that Bush isn't the right person to win in 2016. Again, no official announcement from Romney camp, but it's clear that Mitt Romney is very likely to run for President.
The latest Bush and Romney's moves have obliged some potential candidates to take decision. The first potential candidate to take a decision is Florida Senator Marco Rubio, that announced that he would seek re-election in the United States Senate and endorsed his fellow floridian Jeb Bush. Rubio, despite the possible competition with Bush, said that his decision comes from the fact that he desires to continue to represent the people of Florida in the Senate and that he isn't ready for the presidency.
Another GOP politician that announced his plans is Wisconsin Congressman and Mitt Romney's 2012 running mate Paul Ryan. Ryan has officially declined a run for the White House. He is not giving endorsement. His fellow wisconsinite Scott Walker is a potential candidate, but he said that Mitt Romney would still be a great president.
New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is still considering a run for the White House, but with Mitt Romney most likely to enter the race, Christie is seeing his plans go up in smoke. He is a big friend of Mitt Romney, and the Former Massachusetts Governor is stronger than Christie and Romney would assume his role in the primary. So, with both Bush and Romney in the race, would be very complicated for Christie having a big role in the primary.

Rick Santorum announcing his run in Rock Rapids, IA.

On the conservative side, Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum finally announced his candidacy for the White House. He placed 2nd in the 2012 Republican presidential primary and he is hoping for a big role in the new primary season.
Another conservative that is considering a run is Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee. Huckabee left his Fox News show, and this is a great sign that Huckabee is interested in a new bid for presidency.
Also Kentucky Senator Rand Paul and Texas Senator Ted Cruz are considering a run for the White House. Paul is travelling across the country. He took a strong position on Cuba and he reacted to the Santorum's critics, saying that the former Pennsylvania Senator is not the right kind of conservative that America needs.
But Bush, Romney, Christie, Santorum, Huckabee, Paul and Cruz are not the only candidates that are considering a bid for the White House. There are a lot. On the conservative side, Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, Ben Carson and former Texas Governor Rick Perry are interested in running. On the moderate/establishment side, Ohio Governor John Kasich is ready to run, after the Rob Portman's announcement that he is not going to run. Also South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham is object of speculation by the media on a possible bid.
On the half, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker is a possible candidate, and his objective is being an acceptable candidate for the establishment and for the most conservatives. He is ready to run, but he will wait the end of the Wisconsin Legislature season for a final decision.
Other potential candidates that are polled weak in the polls are Former Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, Former California U.S. Senate candidate Carly Fiorina, Former New York Governor George Pataki and New York Congressman Peter King.

2016 Republican Primary - RCP Average (January)
Mitt Romney 15.6%
Jeb Bush 10.3%
Rand Paul 9.8%
Scott Walker 6.4%
Ted Cruz 6.2%
Mike Huckabee 6.1%
Chris Christie 5.8%
Ben Carson 4.7%
Rick Santorum 4%
Bobby Jindal 3.2%
Rick Perry 3.2%
John Kasich 3%
Lindsey Graham 0.9%
Carly Fiorina 0.4%
George Pataki 0.3%
Michele Bachmann 0.3%
Peter King 0.1%
Undecided/Others 19.4%

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Go on!

[NHI]

Great start!!

[Senator Cris]

March is ending now and there were a lot of developments, in both sides.

Hillary Clinton announcing candidacy in Derry, NH.

On the democratic side, Hillary Clinton has announced his candidacy for President of the United States, receiving the endorsements of the big majority of democratic senators, governors and personality.
Following the Clinton's announcement, all the potential candidates have ruled out a presidential bill. Vice President Joe Biden said that serving as VP was the biggest honor of his life and said no thanks about a presidential run. Also others Senators and Governors have declined to run against Hillary.
She was hoping to run uncontested in the primary, in order to have more time to campaigning for the general election and exploit the clear division in the republican field, but she got a challenger.

Jim Webb with supporters in Ames, IA.

Former Virginia Senator Jim Webb has announced his bid for the presidency. Webb formed an exploratory committee in November. Clinton is the absolute favorite now, and Webb know this, and his objective is a big result in Iowa but he is less know that Hillary and he needs to work very hard on this.

A lot of developments in the republican side. The polls show that Hillary Clinton isn't unbeatable and here comes the candidates.

Mitt Romney at a meet and greet in Manchester, NH.

Mitt Romney, former Massachusetts Governor and 2012 Republican Presidential nominee, has announced his run for the White House. This is the 3rd presidential run of Mitt Romney. He said that the third run was a duty towards all the American people that wants a real change in our politics. The first polls after the announcement are showing a clear bounce for Romney, that now is the favorite to get some supporters of New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, that decided to not run for President. Christie said that he wants to stay in New Jersey to work for the state and that being Governor is the biggest honor of his life.

John Kasich announcing campaign in Nashua, NH.

Indiana Governor Mike Pence has ruled out a bill, saying that he is running for a second term as Governor of Indiana, but a Governor announced a run: it's Ohio Governor John Kasich. The polls show Romney and Bush ahead of the others, but Kasich think that they are not so beloved by the GOP base, and his object is make an alternative moderate candidacy.
On the moderate side of the Republican field, New York Congressman Peter King isn't running for President and is running for an easy re-election in his congressional district.

Rand Paul at the announcement rally in Cedar Rapids, IA.

On the most conservative side, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul has announced a presidential run. He is taking the support of a part of the Tea Party and especially of the libertarians. Despite his Senate seat will be up for grabs, Paul feels that this is an historic occasione and he is in to win.

Ben Carson during his speech at CPAC in Washington, DC.

Neurosurgeon Ben Carson has announced his candidacy at CPAC. A huge round of applause at his announcement. Carson candidacy is doing well, expecially in Iowa that is the first target of his campaign. Without a great result in Iowa, Carson told reporters, he will drop out of the race.

Former Minnesota congresswoman Michele Bachmann ruled out a presidential bill and there are still a lot of potential candidates that haven't declared their intentions: Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, former New York Governor George Pataki, former Texas Governor Rick Perry and Carly Fiorina.

2015 CPAC Straw Poll (February)
Ben Carson 20.2%
Rand Paul 19.7%
Ted Cruz 13.2%
Scott Walker 8.9%
Rick Santorum 7.6%
Mike Huckabee 6.8%
Mitt Romney 6.2%
Carly Fiorina 5.9%
Rick Perry 3.7%
Jeb Bush 3.7%
Bobby Jindal 2.6%
John Kasich 1.5%

2016 Republican Primary - RCP Average (March)
Mitt Romney 20.2%
Rand Paul 12.1%
Jeb Bush 10.5%
Ben Carson 7%
Scott Walker 6.2%
Ted Cruz 5.5%
Mike Huckabee 5.4%
Rick Santorum 4.4%
John Kasich 3.4%
Rick Perry 2.8%
Bobby Jindal 2.7%
Lindsey Graham 0.6%
Carly Fiorina 0.3%
George Pataki 0.2%
Undecided/Others 18.7%

2016 Iowa Republican Caucuses - RCP Average (March)
Rand Paul 14.5%
Ben Carson 13.9%
Mike Huckabee 12.1%
Ted Cruz 9.4%
Mitt Romney 9.2%
Scott Walker 7.5%
Rick Santorum 7.2%
Rick Perry 4.3%
Jeb Bush 3.9%
Bobby Jindal 1.5%
Carly Fiorina 0.2%
John Kasich 0.2%
Lindsey Graham 0.1%
George Pataki 0.1%
Undecided/Others 15.8%

2016 New Hampshire Republican Primary - RCP Average (March)
Mitt Romney 25.9%
Rand Paul 20.8%
Jeb Bush 12.3%
John Kasich 5.8%
Scott Walker 4.5%
Ben Carson 2.9%
Ted Cruz 2.8%
Mike Huckabee 2.8%
George Pataki 2.5%
Rick Santorum 1.5%
Lindsey Graham 0.6%
Bobby Jindal 0.6%
Rick Perry 0.5%
Carly Fiorina 0.5%
Undecided/Others 15.4%

2016 Democratic Primary - RCP Average (March)
Hillary Clinton 61.5%
Jim Webb 16.2%
Undecided/Others 22.3%

2016 Democratic Iowa Caucuses - RCP Average (March)
Hillary Clinton 52.3%
Jim Webb 24.5%
Undecided/Others 23.2%

2016 Democratic New Hampshire Primary - RCP Average (March)
Hillary Clinton 70.2%
Jim Webb 9.3%
Undecided/Others 20.5%

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Will Sanders make a bid?

[Senator Cris]

Will Sanders make a bid?

No. It's Clinton vs. Webb.

[badgate]

Hillary Clinton announcing his candidacy in Derry, NH.

Now that's just rude

[Türkisblau]

I'm liking it so far. Love your timelines, Cris!

[Senator Cris]

I'm liking it so far. Love your timelines, Cris!

Great start!!

Go on!

Thanks!

[Senator Cris]

May is ended and we probably have the most largest republican field in the history of presidential elections. No new developments on the democratic side, but a lot of candidates are now in for the republican nomination.

Scott Walker at an event in Madison, WI.

The first announcement, the most awaited, is of Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, that announced his candidacy, citing his record as Governor. Walker's polls numbers were not good, but when he announced, he gained a little bounce and now he is a clear contender for the republican nomination.

Ted Cruz announcing his candidacy in Marion, IA.

On the conservative side, Texas Senator Ted Cruz entered the race in late April and gained support from his fellow conservatives. But he is not the only conservative to join the race. But he is facing competition from home.

Rick Perry during a meet and greet in Cedar Rapids, IA.

Also former Texas Governor Rick Perry announced his candidacy for the presidency. Perry was ready to run from February, but he attended the recent developments and announced in mid April.

Mike Huckabee announcing his candidacy in Ames, IA.

Another big announcement has shaken the field, and especially the candidates that want to win in the Iowa caucuses. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, the winner of 2008 Iowa caucuses, has announced a run for the White House. The first polls shows that Huckabee is gaining a lot in Iowa.

Bobby Jindal at an event in Waterloo, IA.

Another conservative, Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, has announced a presidential bid. He said that he is a new kind of republican and a new kind of conservative and is looking a good result in the state of Iowa.

Carly Fiorina during an event in Des Moines, IA.

The only woman to enter the race is 2010 California Senate nominee Carly Fiorina, that tip to make this a strong point, as the only female opposition to Hillary Clinton.

Lindsey Graham announcing presidential bid in Columbia, SC.

Finally, two moderates announced campaign for the presidency: South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham, that gained the support of Arizona Senator John McCain and former New York Governor George Pataki, that is hoping for a very good result in the state of New Hampshire.

George Pataki during the announcement in Salem, NH.

[Türkisblau]

Wow. The clown car is particularly full this time around.

[KingSweden]

Quite the wide-open primary. It'll be interesting to see how that shakes out. Some winning candidates may get no more than 10% in certain contests.

[Enderman]

Update soon?

[Senator Cris]

June Polling - Primary.

14 major presidential candidates in the republican side. It's a very close race. No candidates are below 20% and this is real important. Mitt Romney holds a slim lead over Senator Rand Paul, but a close third one is Jeb Bush.
But we can take a look at the primary map. Romney is leading in New England, with some important exceptions as Maine and Vermont for Paul and Connecticut for Bush.
The Midwest is the symbol of the division in the GOP field. Governors Walker and Kasich are leading in their home states. Mike Huckabee is strong in Iowa, Missouri and Kansas but Mitt Romney is ahead in Michigan, Minnesota, Illinois, in the Dakotas and surprisingly in the state of Nebraska. Rand Paul is leading in Indiana.
The division is also clear in the South, but Mitt Romney isn't a major player in this area. The establishment candidate role is of Jeb Bush, that is leading in his home state of Florida, Virginia and North Carolina. Huckabee is leading in his home state of Arkansas, Alabama and Mississippi. Ted Cruz is ahead at home, in Oklahoma, Tennessee, Georgia and in South Carolina, but Rand Paul is winning West Virginia and his home state of Kentucky. Home effect also for Carson and Jindal.
Rand Paul is not doing well in the South, but he is doing very well in the West. He is leading in Colorado, an important state, and surprisingly in Oregon and Washington. Not bad for Bush with leads in Montana and New Mexico. Cruz is ahead in Arizona, but the rest is all for Romney, including the biggest state, California.

Republican National - RCP Average
Mitt Romney 16.4%
Rand Paul 14%
Jeb Bush 11.4%
Scott Walker 7.7%
Ted Cruz 6.8%
Mike Huckabee 6.7%
Ben Carson 6%
Rick Santorum 4%
John Kasich 3.8%
Rick Perry 3.6%
Bobby Jindal 2.2%
Lindsey Graham 1.2%
Carly Fiorina 1.1%
George Pataki 0.5%
Undecided/Others 14.6%

Iowa Republican Caucuses - RCP Average
Mike Huckabee 14.8%
Rand Paul 13.5%
Ben Carson 12.1%
Mitt Romney 9.5%
Ted Cruz 8.8%
Scott Walker 8%
Rick Santorum 6.5%
Rick Perry 5.4%
Jeb Bush 4.2%
Bobby Jindal 2.6%
Carly Fiorina 1.7%
John Kasich 0.4%
Lindsey Graham 0.1%
George Pataki 0.1%
Undecided/Others 12.3%

New Hampshire Republican Primary - RCP Average (March)
Mitt Romney 23.1%
Rand Paul 22.7%
Jeb Bush 14%
Scott Walker 6.8%
John Kasich 6%
Mike Huckabee 3.2%
Ted Cruz 2.5%
Ben Carson 2.2%
George Pataki 2.1%
Rick Perry 1.2%
Lindsey Graham 0.9%
Bobby Jindal 0.8%
Carly Fiorina 0.7%
Rick Santorum 0.7%
Undecided/Others 13.1%

Jim Webb is recovering on the democratic side, but Hillary has still a big lead. Not only in the national polls, but also in the states. She is leading in all the states, with the exceptions of 4 very conservative states as Oklahoma, Idaho, Utah and Wyoming. But Webb has still a lot of potential, expecially in states as Colorado and in the remaining conservative states, where Hillary is still leading, but the lead is not wide.

Democratic National - RCP Average
Hillary Clinton 56.1%
Jim Webb 23.2%
Undecided/Others 20.7%

2016 Democratic Iowa Caucuses - RCP Average
Hillary Clinton 50.1%
Jim Webb 28.4%
Undecided/Others 21.5%

2016 Democratic New Hampshire Primary - RCP Average
Hillary Clinton 71.3%
Jim Webb 10%
Undecided/Others 18.7%

In the next post, I'll have national polls (Hillary vs. GOPers) and favorability ratings.

[Senator Cris]

June Polling - National.

Favorability Ratings (Among Democrats and Republicans)
Hillary Clinton 68/15
Jim Webb 17/21
Mitt Romney 55/32
Rand Paul 50/28
Ben Carson 42/21
Scott Walker 28/12
Carly Fiorina 15/5
Mike Huckabee 45/40
John Kasich 21/19
Bobby Jindal 22/20
George Pataki 5/10
Rick Perry 36/42
Ted Cruz 35/42
Jeb Bush 32/41
Rick Santorum 31/41
Lindsey Graham 10/20

General Election
Hillary Clinton 47.1%
Mitt Romney 44.5%

Hillary Clinton 47.9%
Rand Paul 43.7%

Hillary Clinton 48.2%
Jeb Bush 43.1%

Hillary Clinton 48.5%
Scott Walker 42.5%

Hillary Clinton 52.9%
Ted Cruz 39.9%

Hillary Clinton 48.6%
Mike Huckabee 41.7%

Hillary Clinton 52.1%
Ben Carson 37.2%

Hillary Clinton 51.7%
Rick Santorum 38.2%

Hillary Clinton 48.7%
John Kasich 40.5%

Hillary Clinton 52%
Rick Perry 38%

Hillary Clinton 51.9%
Bobby Jindal 38.5%

Hillary Clinton 52.8%
Lindsey Graham 36.2%

Hillary Clinton 51.1%
Carly Fiorina 39.2%

Hillary Clinton 53.9%
George Pataki 35.5%

Electoral Map: Hillary Clinton vs. Generic Republican

Hillary Clinton 266
Generic Republican 191

[Senator Cris]

Tomorrow I'll have an update of events until December 2015.
After this I'll have endorsements, final polling in Iowa and Iowa results!

[Senator Cris]

The initial field was of 14 major candidates, but at the end of December the field consists of 12 candidates.
Two candidates dropped out and both are of the conservative front. This can represent an advantage for the remained conservative candidates that can gain in the crucial state of Iowa.

Bobby Jindal announcing Senate bid in New Orleans, LA.

The first candidate to drop out is Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, that dropped out in August, after being polled poorly in the early states, maintaining a lead only in his home state of Louisiana.
Governor Bobby Jindal is term limited but he has not closed with politics. He announced his intention to run for the Senate and Governor-elect David Vitter is expected to appoint Jindal at the seat and he will presumably seek election to a full term in November.

Mike Huckabee announcing end of presidential bid in Little Rock, AR.

Another candidate that dropped out of the race is Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee. He is popular in Iowa, he won the caucuses in 2008, but this time he wasn't capable to catch the lead in the Iowa polls. He is popular with Iowans, but they want a new voice to represent conservative values, and that's why Senators Rand Paul and Ted Cruz and Ben Carson are polling good in the state.
Also the fundraiser numbers weren't good and so he left the race. Media and candidates were waiting for an endorsement, but Huckabee hasn't endorsed any candidate in the race.


Gubernatorial elections were held in the states of Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi.

In Kentucky, Democratic Governor Steve Beshear is term limited. Kentucky Attorney General Jack Conway won the Democratic nomination, but was defeated by Republican James Comer, the Agriculture Commissioner for Kentucky.
It was a very close race, but at the end, this is a republican pick-up.

✔ (+) James Comer 49.9%
Jack Conway 48.7%

In Louisiana, Senator David Vitter and Democrat Mitch Landrieu advanced to runoff. The New Orleans Mayor was capable to gain a lot on the campaign trail. Summer polls weren't good for Landrieu and he ran a very good campaign, but this wasn't enough to beat Republican David Vitter, that becomes the new Governor of Louisiana. A GOP hold.

✔ David Vitter 50.7%
Mitch Landrieu 49.3%

In the state of Mississippi, incumbent Governor Phil Bryant has won re-election to a second term, defeating the democrat Travis Childers. It was an easy victory for Bryant, that kept this state for the GOP.

✔ * Phil Bryant 58.4%
Travis Childers 40.2%

[Senator Cris]

Tomorrow and the day after tomorrow I'll have updates!

[Senator Cris]

Presidents/Senators/Governors Endorsements

Republicans

Mitt Romney
Sen. Jim Risch (R-ID)
Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS)
Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-NH)
Sen. John Hoeven (R-ND)
Sen. John Thune (R-SD)
Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN)
Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT)
Gov. Paul LePage (R-ME)
Gov. Charlie Baker (R-MA)
Gov. Rick Snyder (R-MI)
Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ)
Gov. Gary Hebert (R-UT)
Gov. Matt Mead (R-WY)

Jeb Bush
President George H.W. Bush (R-TX)
President George W. Bush (R-TX)
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC)

Scott Walker
Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI)
Gov. Mike Pence (R-IN)

Ted Cruz
Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL)
Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX)

Rick Perry
Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK)
Gov. Sam Brownback (R-KS)

Rand Paul
Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

John Kasich
Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH)

Lindsey Graham
Sen. John McCain (R-AZ)

Democrats

Hillary Clinton
President Barack Obama (D-IL)
Former President Bill Clinton (D-AR)
Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)
Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA)
Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA)
Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO)
Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT)
Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT)
Sen. Chris Coons (D-CT)
Sen. Brian Schatz (D-HI)
Sen. Mazie Hirono (D-HI)
Sen. Richard Durbin (D-IL)
Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D-MD)
Sen. Ben Cardin (D-MD)
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)
Sen. Ed Markey (D-MA)
Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI)
Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI)
Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)
Sen. Al Franken (D-MN)
Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MD)
Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV)
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH)
Sen. Robert Menendez (D-NJ)
Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ)
Sen. Tom Udall (D-NM)
Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-NM)
Sen. Charles Schumer (D-NY)
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY)
Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH)
Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR)
Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR)
Senator Bob Casey (D-PA)
Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI)
Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI)
Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT)
Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA)
Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA)
Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA)
Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA)
Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI)
Gov. Jerry Brown (D-CA)
Gov. John Hickenlooper (D-CO)
Gov. Dannel Malloy (D-CT)
Gov. David Ige (D-HI)
Gov. Mark Dayton (D-MN)
Gov. Maggie Hassan (D-NH)
Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D-NY)
Gov. John Kitzhaber (D-OR)
Gov. Tom Wolf (D-PA)
Gov. Gina Raimondo (D-RI)
Gov. Peter Shumlin (D-VT)
Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D-VA)
Gov. Jay Inslee (D-WA)

[Senator Cris]

January Polling.

Republican National - RCP Average
Rand Paul 17.7%
Mitt Romney 16.3%
Scott Walker 15.6%
Jeb Bush 11.9%
Ted Cruz 8.4%
Rick Santorum 4.9%
Ben Carson 4.1%
Rick Perry 3.8%
John Kasich 3.1%
Carly Fiorina 1.7%
Lindsey Graham 1%
George Pataki 0.6%
Undecided/Others 10.9%

Iowa Republican Caucuses - RCP Average
Rand Paul 19.5%
Scott Walker 16.3%
Ted Cruz 14.2%
Mitt Romney 13.5%
Rick Santorum 7.9%
Ben Carson 7%
Jeb Bush 4.5%
Rick Perry 4.4%
John Kasich 2.3%
Carly Fiorina 2.1%
Lindsey Graham 0.5%
George Pataki 0.2%
Undecided/Others 7.6%

New Hampshire Republican Primary - RCP Average
Mitt Romney 24.9%
Rand Paul 24.3%
Scott Walker 11.8%
Jeb Bush 10.8%
John Kasich 4.2%
Ted Cruz 4.1%
Rick Santorum 3.2%
Ben Carson 1.9%
George Pataki 1.8%
Rick Perry 1.5%
Lindsey Graham 0.7%
Carly Fiorina 0.7%
Undecided/Others 10.1%

Democratic National - RCP Average
Hillary Clinton 62.8%
Jim Webb 22.7%
Undecided/Others 14.5%

Democratic Iowa Caucuses - RCP Average
Hillary Clinton 55.6%
Jim Webb 30.2%
Undecided/Others 14.2%

Democratic New Hampshire Primary - RCP Average
Hillary Clinton 76.2%
Jim Webb 10.1%
Undecided/Others 13.7%

NEXT: Iowa Results!

[Senator Cris]

Iowa Results



✔ Scott Walker 23.1% (7)
Rand Paul 22% (6)
Ted Cruz 16.9% (5)
Mitt Romney 10.9% (3)
Rick Santorum 6.9% (2)
Ben Carson 6.2% (2)
Rick Perry 4.2%
Jeb Bush 4.1%
Carly Fiorina 2.4%
John Kasich 2.3%
Lindsey Graham 0.7%
George Pataki 0.3%

Results by CDs:

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker celebrating victory in Des Moines, IA.

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker surprisingly won the Iowa caucuses. This is a big win for the Walker campaign, that was competitive in the national polls, but with the fear to not win any early state and lose the momentum gained in the past months. With this victory, Scott Walker increased his momentum and now he is looking for good results in New Hampshire, Nevada and possibly for a win in South Carolina.
According to the exit poll, Scott Walker has won the conservative voters with 33% and won 19% of moderate voters and 16% of very conservative voters.

Rand Paul greeting supporters in Ames, IA.

Disappointment for Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, that was sure of a narrow win, but still a win, in Iowa. Paul is looking for a win in New Hampshire, where he is in a close race with Mitt Romney. In Iowa, Paul won 25% of conservative voters, 21% of very conservatives and 17% of moderates.

Ted Cruz speaking in Des Moines, IA.

Very good result for Texas Senator Ted Cruz, that won the third place in Iowa, thanks to a strong support in the western part of the state and among very conservative voters (the majority in Iowa),among which prevailed with 24% of votes. Cruz gained also 14% of conservative voters and 3% of moderates. The biggest objective of Cruz campaign now is a win in South Carolina, where he is favored.

Mitt Romney at Election Night Party in West Des Moines, IA.

Bad result for Mitt Romney, that failed to win the third place in Iowa. He won the moderate vote, with 24%, and gained 11% of conservatives and 6% of very conservatives. Despite this result, Romney is still alive, and he has now two big obiettivi. The first one is a victory in New Hampshire, where he is in a very close race with Rand Paul. But regardless of New Hampshire, Romney is the favored to win in Nevada, thanks to the strong support among mormons.

Bad result also for both of Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum and Neurosurgeon Ben Carson. Both conservatives won 1% of moderates and 4% of somewhat conservative voters. Santorum won 11% of very conservatives and Carson won 10% of very conservatives. Both were awaiting for a strong result in Iowa and without it, they decided to drop out of the race. Santorum has endorsed Ted Cruz, calling him a true conservative that will be capable of win the primary and the general election. No endorsements from Ben Carson.

An expected result for Rick Perry, the former Texas Governor, that has won 7% of very conservatives, 3% of conservatives and 1% of moderates. No delegates for him from the state of Iowa. Initially, Perry said that he was going to South Carolina, but after the polls that showed a very low performance in the Palmetto State, Perry dropped out of the race, backing his fellow texan Ted Cruz.

A bad, but expected, result in Iowa for Jeb Bush, that lost the seventh place by nearly 40 votes. Bush gained 1% of very conservatives and 3% of conservatives, but at the same time he gained 14% of moderates. Bush hasn't campaigned in the state and his objective is now a good result in New Hampshire and in South Carolina.

Not a good result for Carly Fiorina, but his consensus is rooted in all categories. She won 2% of moderates, 2% of conservatives and 2% of very conservatives. But the result is still bad and Fiorina dropped out of the race, without making an endorsement.

As expected, lower results for Ohio Governor John Kasich, South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham and Former New York Governor George Pataki. Kasich won 8% of moderates and 1% of conservatives. Graham won only 3% of moderates and Pataki gained the support of 2% of moderate voters. Kasich and Pataki are looking to good results in the state of New Hampshire and Graham, that hasn't campaigned in Iowa, is investing all forces on a strong result in his home state of South Carolina.

Primary Standings



Scott Walker 7 (0.3% of total delegates)
Ted Cruz 7 (0.3%)
Rand Paul 6 (0.2%)
Mitt Romney 3 (0.1%)
Jeb Bush 0 (0%)
John Kasich 0 (0%)
Lindsey Graham 0 (0%)
George Pataki 0 (0%)

Needed to win: 1.205 (50%)

[Senator Cris]

Iowa Results (Pt. 2)



✔ Hillary Clinton 68.5% (32)
Jim Webb 31.5% (14)

Results by CDs:




Former Virginia Senator Jim Webb during a speech in Iowa City, IA.

An unexpected bad result for Virginia Senator Jim Webb, that gained only few undecided voters, losing the Iowa Caucuses by 37 points. Webb dropped out of the race, endorsing Hillary Clinton. This is considered a strategic move for Jim Webb, that is hoping to be in the VP shortlist of Hillary Clinton, that now has secured the democratic nomination for the presidency.

Hillary Clinton celebrating victory in Des Moines, IA.

Hillary Clinton has secured the democratic nomination for the presidency of the United States. After a big Iowa win, the objective of Hillary campaign is exploit the clear division in the republican field, and immediately start the campaign for the general election. Various sources told us that campaign chairs are starting to work on the Vice Presidential shortlist. We don't know the names of the shortlist, but it's clear that Hillary wants a strong VP choice that can help her in at least one battleground state.

[Senator Cris]

Republican National - RCP Average
Rand Paul 21.7%
Scott Walker 21.6%
Mitt Romney 17.1%
Ted Cruz 14.8%
Jeb Bush 11.2%
John Kasich 2.7%
Lindsey Graham 0.6%
George Pataki 0.3%
Undecided/Others 10%

New Hampshire Republican Primary - RCP Average
Rand Paul 26.7%
Mitt Romney 24.7%
Scott Walker 16.5%
Jeb Bush 10.5%
John Kasich 4.5%
Ted Cruz 7.5%
George Pataki 1.7%
Lindsey Graham 0.3%
Undecided/Others 7.6%

Nevada Republican Caucuses - RCP Average
Mitt Romney 30.1%
Rand Paul 20.1%
Scott Walker 18.2%
Jeb Bush 10.9%
Ted Cruz 10.2%
John Kasich 1%
Lindsey Graham 0.2%
George Pataki 0.2%
Undecided/Others 9.1%

South Carolina Republican Primary - RCP Average
Ted Cruz 23.4%
Jeb Bush 16.8%
Scott Walker 16.2%
Rand Paul 15.5%
Lindsey Graham 9.8%
Mitt Romney 8.4%
John Kasich 0.3%
George Pataki 0.1%
Undecided/Others 9.5%

NEXT: New Hampshire Results!

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I love the county maps! Keep up the awesome work!

[Senator Cris]

New Hampshire Results



✔ Rand Paul 30.5% (7)
Mitt Romney 25.3% (6)
Scott Walker 20.5% (5)
Jeb Bush 9.9%
Ted Cruz 7.8%
John Kasich 4.1%
George Pataki 1.6%
Lindsey Graham 0.3%

Results by CDs:

Rand Paul celebrating victory with supporters in Manchester, NH.

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul has won the New Hampshire primary, with an highest margin than expected. He received the support of 29% of moderate voters, 28% of conservative voters and 36% of very conservatives. Tonight, Rand Paul confirmed that he is still a major contender for the nomination.

Mitt Romney speaking in Manchester, NH.

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney won a disappointing 25%. New Hampshire was one of the most important states for the Romney campaign. Romney gained 32% of moderates, 24% of conservatives and 13% of very conservative voters.

Scott Walker speaking in Nashua, NH.

The real surprise of the night is the good results of Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, that has broken 20%. According to the exit poll, Walker has won 12% of moderates, 32% of conservatives and 23% of very conservative voters. Now the big objectives are good results in Nevada and South Carolina.

Bad result for Jeb Bush that has not exceeded the threshold of 10% required to have delegates for few votes. Bush gained 17% of moderates, 5% of conservatives and only 1% of very conservatives. The Bush campaign has decided to skip Nevada and going only in South Carolina.

An expected result for Ted Cruz, that gained 1% of moderates, 7% of conservatives and 25% of very conservative voters. The Cruz campaign is worried by the Walker surge in South Carolina, but the Texas Senator is still favored in this state.

The New Hampshire result has confimed the collaps of the campaigns of Ohio Governor John Kasich and of former New York Governor George Pataki. Kasich won 2% of conservatives and 7% of moderate voters. Pataki won 3% of moderates. Both Kasich and Pataki decided to drop out of the race. John Kasich is endorsing his fellow Governor Scott Walker. George Pataki endorsed Mitt Romney.
South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham has won 1% of moderates, but his objective now is a good result in his home state.

Primary Standings



Rand Paul 13 (0.5% of total delegates)
Scott Walker 12 (0.5%)
Mitt Romney 9 (0.4%)
Ted Cruz 7 (0.3%)
Jeb Bush 0 (0%)
Lindsey Graham 0 (0%)

Needed to win: 1.205 (50%)

I love the county maps! Keep up the awesome work!

Thanks!