A Late Entry
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  A Late Entry
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Author Topic: A Late Entry  (Read 778 times)
NHI
Junior Chimp
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« on: January 07, 2015, 12:09:22 PM »

"So that there is no doubt I am announcing tonight on the steps of this grand old state house, on this cold December night I am a candidate for Democratic Nomination. I am running for President, having signed my name just a few short moments ago I will appear on the ballot for the New Hampshire Primary and intend to campaign, taking our message, which is the message of the people to all sectors of this country. To the forgotten Americans in George Bush's America, hear this, hold on a little longer, help is on the way..."

Mario Cuomo, made his ambiguous intentions crystal clear. He declared his intentions to run for President of the United States. Thanks to Tom Harkin's presence in the race the Iowa Caucuses would play a lesser role, making the New Hampshire Primary carry an extra weight this presidential cycle. Cuomo's entry shook up a chaotic and disjointed field. Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton, whose charisma and populist appeal made him an attractive candidate, but he was dogged by rumors of infidelities and questions of characters.

The Democrat's powerhouse was now in the race and Democratic pundits saw it as his for the taking. He rallied the liberal base of the party and won the support of the party's establishment, many who were begging for the New York Governor to enter the race for months. Still, he faced an uphill battle. In trial heats against the incumbent President Bush Cuomo trailed Bush by 5 to six points.

Iowa Caucuses: No Surprise Harkin Comes out on Top!

√ Tom Harkin: 71.2%
Mario Cuomo: 14.4%
Paul Tsongas: 4.7%
Bill Clinton: 3.3%
Bob Kerrey: 2.8%
Jerry Brown: 2.0%
Other: 1.7%

Cuomo Wins the New Hampshire Primary
√ Mario Cuomo: 29.0%
Paul Tsongas: 25.3%
Bill Clinton: 19.6%
Tom Harkin: 10.5%
Bob Kerrey: 7.7%
Jerry Brown: 6.9%
Other: 1.0%
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #1 on: January 07, 2015, 07:23:58 PM »

Cool start!  I always wondered what a Cuomo '92 run would look like
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NHI
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: January 13, 2015, 02:24:59 PM »

The campaigns of Bob Kerrey and Paul Tsongas would fold soon after New Hampshire. Kerrey's campaign failed to catch fire, despite a narrow win in the South Dakota Caucuses, and Tsongas, who being from neighboring Massachusetts and suffering a dismal second place finish in New Hampshire meant his campaign was over too. He would remain for the Maine Caucuses, which took place a week after New Hampshire, but he finished third, behind Bill Clinton who took second and Mario Cuomo who clinched the first spot. Tom Harkin, soon left the race and joined Tsongas who backed Cuomo. Kerrey endorsed Bill Clinton.

Mario Cuomo, remained the undisputed frontrunner, leaving only Jerry Brown and Bill Clinton in the race. Brown's chances were considered slim at best, but Clinton was considered the dark horse in the race. The Arkansas Governor ran on a populist platform, but distanced himself from the more liberal Cuomo. Appealing to moderates, Clinton argued the Democratic party needed to re-brand itself after three historic losses to the Republicans.


"We cannot be a majority party if we are stuck in the past. We as fellow Democrats cannot keep running the same campaign of forty years ago. Americans are demanding a different kind of government, a different kind of politics, a different kind of Democrats."

Clinton's candidacy intrigued many Democrats, but he also caused concern. His adulterous past and questions of character and scandal caused many Democrats to doubt his electability and many party elders and establishment rallied around Cuomo. Still, Clinton persevered, taking on the rumors of infidelity, draft dodging and other scandal and he did so with some results. Clinton defeated Cuomo in the Colorado primary and then crushed him Georgia Primary, causing many in the party to reevaluated their frontrunner's viability. Clinton's winning streak continued with a win in the Idaho Caucuses, which resulted in a resurgence of the Arkansas Governor in the eyes of the party and voters across the country.


Colorado Primary:
√ Bill Clinton: 39.5%
Mario Cuomo: 35.2%
Jerry Brown: 22.4%
Other: 2.9%

Georgia Primary:
√ Bill Clinton: 59.5%
Mario Cuomo: 29.2%
Jerry Brown: 10.4%
Other: 1.0%

Idaho Caucuses:
√ Bill Clinton: 41.5%
Mario Cuomo: 38.7%
Jerry Brown: 18.7%
Other: 1.1%


Cuomo and Clinton headed for a showdown on the March 3rd contests, which a combination of four primaries or caucuses, ahead of Super Tuesday on March 10. The two split the contests with Cuomo winning Maryland and Minnesota, while Clinton took Utah and Washington. Cuomo challenged Clinton's character, especially when a recorded conversation came to light between Clinton and an alleged lover Gennifer Flowers, in which Clinton made disparaging remarks about Cuomo, prior to his entry into the race. Clinton apologized for the comments, but saw his negatives rise and Cuomo's stock rise.

A few days later Cuomo walked with a chunk of delegates and new found momentum after winning the Arizona, Nevada and Wyoming contests, while Clinton only carried South Carolina. Heading into Super Tuesday Cuomo remained the favorite, but Clinton proved a strong competitor. Many of the contests took place the south and Clinton walked away with a large amount of delegates. Cuomo, did score an important win in the Florida primary, which the media portrayed as the big victory of the night, despite the fact Clinton carried more states than Cuomo.


Florida Primary:
√ Mario Cuomo: 50.1%
Bill Clinton: 45.0%
Jerry Brown: 4.0%
Other: 0.9%

Mario Cuomo
Bill Clinton
Bob Kerrey
[color=light blue]Tom Harkin[/color]

Seven days later Clinton and Cuomo sparred for the Illinois and Michigan primaries. Clinton made it close in Illinois, but Cuomo walked away the big winner of the night, effectively ending Michigan the Democratic contests. However, Bill Clinton remained in the race for a few more weeks, winning impressive victories including the Pennsylvania Primary, even after Cuomo crushed him in his neighboring home state of New York by 40 points.

However, as from the start Cuomo remained the Democrat's choice and on May 5th, after a long and contentious primary Cuomo officially secured the nomination.

Mario Cuomo
Bill Clinton
Bob Kerrey
[color=light blue]Tom Harkin[/color]


Gallup Poll: May 1992 (Bush +7)
Bush: 35%
Perot: 28%
Cuomo: 27%

NBC/WSJ Poll: May 1992 (Bush +5)
Bush: 36%
Cuomo: 31%
Perot: 26%
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