2014 Gubernatorial Races by CD

[Miles]

There will be more stuff coming, but heres' what I have now (some of these I've already posted in the Senate thread, I just wanted to get them in one place):

AZ:


GA:


IA:


KS:


MN:


NE:


NH:


NV:


Jerry pointed to me to this spreadsheet, which has the non-NYC districts done:

[Maxwell]

Ann Kirkpatrick and Krysten Sinema looked very impressive with this new perspective.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Ann Kirkpatrick and Krysten Sinema looked very impressive with this new perspective.

as does Peterson.

Looks like Slaughter's (NY-25) problem is an inability to run ahead of the top of the ticket. As long as Schumer doesn't receive a strong challenger, she should survive more comfortably in 2016.

[IceSpear]

Is NH accurate? I thought the 2nd was more Democratic.

[Miles]

^ Yeah, sorry, they should be reversed.

They're each the same shade of red on the map, so I must have overlooked it.

[Vosem]

Even if it is through a vote-split fluke, in' wow at Astorino winning NY-20. That district is typically even more Democratic than NY-25 (which I see Astorino narrowly lost, although his percent of the vote there was greater than in NY-20).

Ann Kirkpatrick and Krysten Sinema looked very impressive with this new perspective.

as does Peterson.

Graham also. I didn't include FL-02 here (because I want to do more FL districts first), but it swung 11% Republican: 52/45 Sink -> 50/46 Scott.

Sean Maloney won a 51/45 Astorino district.

[JerryArkansas]

Yes, you started it.  I'm glad I could also help with some of the results.

[Mr.Phips]

Even if it is through a vote-split fluke, in' wow at Astorino winning NY-20. That district is typically even more Democratic than NY-25 (which I see Astorino narrowly lost, although his percent of the vote there was greater than in NY-20).

Astorino won the 20th mostly due to Howie Hawkins getting nearly 11% there.  That district is incredibly inelastic due to Albany county and the state employees.

[Miles]

WI:



Despite most counties in the area swinging against him, Walker still carried WI-03.

[Vosem]

Despite most counties in the area swinging against him, Walker still carried WI-03.

WI-3 is gerrymandered to be safe Democratic, so it's quite impressive that Walker win it. Republicans should definitely compete here the next time there's an open seat, though Kind seems safe.

[ElectionsGuy]

Thank you for the interesting information.

Please do Maryland. Republicans won 1 CD in the House, I want to see how many CDs they won in the Governor's election.

Thanks again.

If I had to guess right now, I would think Hogan carried four (1, 2, 3, and 6), but Maryland's districts are so disgustingly gerrymandered that its hard to tell

[Vosem]

Even if it is through a vote-split fluke, in' wow at Astorino winning NY-20. That district is typically even more Democratic than NY-25 (which I see Astorino narrowly lost, although his percent of the vote there was greater than in NY-20).

Actually even more amazing than this is Cuomo carrying NY-24, 47/45, even as Katko carried the same district 60/40. (The reverse happened in NY-20, where Astorino carried the district, 46/42, but Tonko won 59/37).

[Miles]

Thank you for the interesting information.

Please do Maryland. Republicans won 1 CD in the House, I want to see how many CDs they won in the Governor's election.

Thanks again.

Thanks; yeah, I'm very interested to see how Maryland turns out.

Despite most counties in the area swinging against him, Walker still carried WI-03.

WI-3 is gerrymandered to be safe Democratic, so it's quite impressive that Walker win it. Republicans should definitely compete here the next time there's an open seat, though Kind seems safe.

When I first came up with Walker winning it I thought I made a mistake. I went back to check how I tabulated out the split counties and with the counties split between CD3 and CD7, the CD3 parts where more Democratic and the CD7 parts where more Republican, which fits with the gerrymander. Looks like its accurate.

[Sol]

Didn't the Democratic candidate win Sinema's district? Not that impressive...

[Miles]

Florida!

Summary of CDs:



My only disclaimer here is that I excluded Write-In votes for the sake of simplicity; county level Write-In totals often differed from the official statewide numbers. Still, I don't think excluding 137 write-in votes would throw these numbers off that much!

County-level calculations: (right-click to enlarge)



As usual, let me know if anything looks off.

I also did a few bonus maps comparing 2014 to the 2010 results by CD.

This is basically the swing map:



CD 2 was Sink -> Crist while 26 and 27 were Scott -> Crist.

Turnout was up almost 11% statewide from 2010, and increased in every CD:

[Devils30]

FL- 26 and 27 are both long term problems for the GOP.

[nclib]

Florida's CD winners are identical to the 2012 pres election.

KS-2 really stands out on the map.

[Miles]

I sort of was expecting more of a correlation between swing and turnout for some reason. The pandhandle districts and the southernmost districts, which had the most notable swings also had relatively static turnout. I suppose the correlation works better around Tampa with more votes in CDs 12/13 + healthy swing to Crist.

[Miles]

Maryland.

CD Summary:



County detail:



The precinct-level file I downloaded from the state election site only broke the election day totals down by precinct. That was usually 70-85% worth of the vote, so I used my usual formal to fill in the gaps and allocate the early/absentee votes. If I see that they've updated the precinct total, I'll revisit this.

[Miles]

Idaho:



I also did the Superintendent of Public Education, because of its closeness. The districts were pretty much mirror images of each other, the Republican won because more votes came from CD1.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Great work Miles, particularly the MD and FL breakdowns. If you get the opportunity, I'd love to see MA.

[Miles]

^ Thanks for bringing up MA; Dave has town results posted, so that made it easier to do MA than I thought. I just had to look up a few split towns on my own.

[JerryArkansas]

Want me to get arkansas out of the way for you?

[Miles]

^ I have AR...somewhere. I made a spreadsheet of the statewide averages by CD a while ago and the Governor results are buried in there somewhere.I just need to go dig it up.

[Mr.Phips]

Maryland.

CD Summary:



County detail:



The precinct-level file I downloaded from the state election site only broke the election day totals down by precinct. That was usually 70-85% worth of the vote, so I used my usual formal to fill in the gaps and allocate the early/absentee votes. If I see that they've updated the precinct total, I'll revisit this.

Absolutely pathetic numbers for Brown in the 4th and 7th.  No Dem should have trouble clearing 70% in either of those seats.