Canadian by-elections, 2015

[Hatman 🍁]

In 2014, those liberal losses in SW were virtually all to the NDP (only riding where Tories did better than 2011 was BGOS). Don't these so-cons know the NDP is equally pro-LGBT? I'd like an explanation on why the NDP is now all of a sudden the vehicle for a so-con backlash against Wynne. A reason other than the economy, which I outlined in my previous post.

Who said these voters are particularly well informed about the NDP's policies? Horwath ran a very populist campaign which appealed to some of these voters.

Again, I have to reiterate this for the third time, her sexuality was not the #1 factor for the switch.

[King of Kensington]

I see hatman's point.  But the trend against the Liberals was already underway before Wynne was leader and there's certainly a huge overlap between those who dislike "Toronto elites" and people who are socially conservative (and just because the region is more socially conservative, a good number of voters abandoning the Libs would have been socially conservative).  Thus by the time of the 2014 election, these voters already weren't voting Liberal anyway.

Take Chatham-Kent-Essex, one of Ontario's most socially conservative ridings.  The Chatham area has often been called Ontario's "Deep South" (the NFB made a documentary about the Black community there and segregation in the 1950s) and it has a large evangelical population, and heavily Mennonite Leamington is in the riding as well.  The Liberals already fell by 19 points between 2007 and 2011, and it fell another 7 points between 2011 and 2014 and into third place.  The riding also has a significant blue collar/manufacturing presence as well and the ONDP did well there also.

Ontario elections aren't really determined by "social conservatism" - but there are certainly people who are homophobic at the ballot box.  Most are already Tories anyway, but surely there were that preferred Horwath to Wynne for that reason if they didn't like Hudak's economic program.

Fortunately, for the vast majority of Ontarians, a lesbian premier was not an issue.

[DC Al Fine]

Ontario elections aren't really determined by "social conservatism" - but there are certainly people who are homophobic at the ballot box.  Most are already Tories anyway, but surely there were that preferred Horwath to Wynne for that reason if they didn't like Hudak's economic program.

Most of the people who are vehemently against gay marriage and vote Liberal are products of a long outdated alignment and are rapidly dying off.*

The Obama/Appalachia seems apt here. While Wynne doesn't have the "job killer" reputation that Obama does, she comes off as an elitist Toronto type, so formerly Liberal voters are either going for the socon Tories or the populist NDP to represent their interests.

*My late Grandfather was one of these. An ethnic Catholic originally, he voted Liberal to the day he died despite having social views that were somewhat to the right of Stockwell Day.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ontario elections aren't really determined by "social conservatism" - but there are certainly people who are homophobic at the ballot box.  Most are already Tories anyway, but surely there were that preferred Horwath to Wynne for that reason if they didn't like Hudak's economic program.

Most of the people who are vehemently against gay marriage and vote Liberal are products of a long outdated alignment and are rapidly dying off.*

These people still exist, but they're mostly immigrants in places like Scarborough. (Think of all the Ford Nation voters who vote Liberal provincially or federally). I'm a bit surprised that these voters still stuck with the Liberals in 2014, but perhaps living in a cosmopolitan city like Toronto helps with the idea of voting for a lesbian despite culturally conservative beliefs. Still, the Liberals saw a swing against them in riding with high immigrant populations like Scarborough-Rouge River, York West and Etobicoke North.

[Boston Bread]

My dad at one point liked Putin because of Russia's tough stance on teh gay and has only ever voted Liberal. Being homophobic doesn't mean they refuse to vote for a party with an LGBT leader.

It's arguable how much of the liberal decline in areas where they did decline in 2014 was due to homophobia manifesting at the ballot box, but generally these areas have been trending away from the liberals for quite some time (moreso at the federal level). Even immigrant-heavy places in the GTA. Not that long ago the NDP was non-existent in places like Scarborough Rouge-River and the Liberals would get two-thirds of the vote. 2011 was where the NDP and Conservatives really started breaking through in immigrant-heavy Liberal strongholds.

[DC Al Fine]

Ontario elections aren't really determined by "social conservatism" - but there are certainly people who are homophobic at the ballot box.  Most are already Tories anyway, but surely there were that preferred Horwath to Wynne for that reason if they didn't like Hudak's economic program.

Most of the people who are vehemently against gay marriage and vote Liberal are products of a long outdated alignment and are rapidly dying off.*

These people still exist, but they're mostly immigrants in places like Scarborough. (Think of all the Ford Nation voters who vote Liberal provincially or federally). I'm a bit surprised that these voters still stuck with the Liberals in 2014, but perhaps living in a cosmopolitan city like Toronto helps with the idea of voting for a lesbian despite culturally conservative beliefs. Still, the Liberals saw a swing against them in riding with high immigrant populations like Scarborough-Rouge River, York West and Etobicoke North.

Ok, you are right.

It's arguable how much of the liberal decline in areas where they did decline in 2014 was due to homophobia manifesting at the ballot box, but generally these areas have been trending away from the liberals for quite some time. Even immigrant-heavy places in the GTA. Not that long ago the NDP was non-existent in places like Scarborough Rouge-River and the Liberals would get two-thirds of the vote. 2011 was where the NDP and Conservatives really started breaking through in immigrant-heavy Liberal strongholds.

I think the NDP could do a reasonable facsimile of the Tories "values" campaign in 2011. Instead of insinuating the Liberals are patronizing and that only the Tories can represent your values, insinuate that the Liberals are patronizing and only the NDP can represent your economic interests.

[King of Kensington]

Definitely shades of "Hillary vs. Obama" in the last provincial election, with Wynne drawing from well-to-do professionals and urban multicultural communities, and Horwath drawing more from the white working class in rust belt towns. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Working class full stop. Under her leadership (whatever you think of it) the NDP have become relevant in Toronto banlieues.

[King of Kensington]

Working class full stop. Under her leadership (whatever you think of it) the NDP have become relevant in Toronto banlieues.

The Liberals got far more support from racial minorities than the NDP did in the last election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Remind me how well the ONDP were doing amongst such voters ten years ago.

[Boston Bread]

Remind me how well the ONDP were doing amongst such voters ten years ago.

Let's be reminded that the NDP won more 416 seats in 2003 than in 2014, including a 27 point NDP win in Beaches and a 16 point win in Trin-Spa.

[DC Al Fine]

Remind me how well the ONDP were doing amongst such voters ten years ago.

The Liberal margin of victory in suburban 416 has gone down a lot since 2003, but let's be reminded that the NDP won more 416 seats in 2003 than in 2014, including a 27 point NDP win in Beaches and a 16 point win in Trin-Spa.

Those ridings are more BoBoish are they not?

Remind me how well the ONDP were doing amongst such voters ten years ago.

To use the ridings Hatman mentioned above; terribly.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Remind me how well the ONDP were doing amongst such voters ten years ago.

Let's be reminded that the NDP won more 416 seats in 2003 than in 2014, including a 27 point NDP win in Beaches and a 16 point win in Trin-Spa.

But only whitey lives in those seats (slight exaggeration).

[Boston Bread]

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My point being that the new voters the NDP picked up hasn't lead to new seats, which is your goal as a party in FPTP. In a sense the NDP vote in Toronto has become inefficient because the party now lacks a stronghold. If the NDP wants a significant Toronto caucus, they should focus their appeal to the bobo-ish downtown or working class immigrants. The NDP in 2014 tried to win both groups and ended up with a lot of narrow losses and just two narrow wins. They should aim to win both groups in the long-term (since it would be necessary to from an NDP government), but until they poll at ~30% it's more fruitful to create orange cleavages in the city so they have a decent number of seats.

[King of Kensington]

The NDP actually lost ground in York South-Weston and throughout Scarborough in 2014.  The "wine-sipping Toronto elitists" critique rang hollow because it wasn't only "elite" Torontonians that rejected them.  The pocketbook populist strategy didn't resonate among working class Torontonians either.  Not to mention Davenport - a seat they lost - is a pretty low income riding.

[Boston Bread]

When was the last time the NDP had 2 seats or less in Toronto at Queen's Park? Anyone???

[King of Kensington]

And in spite of the NDP's gains in SW Ontario and the "rust belt", they still came in third.  Social democratic parties draw disproportionately from major cities, and the "winning formula" draws large swaths of the working class + the progressive middle classes.

It's not as if they can make big gains in the Conservative heartland of central and eastern Ontario.  If the NDP wants to win more seats, Toronto has to be a central focus. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just to clarify: I'm certainly not defending Horwarthism (lol), but adding a mild corrective to certain easy-but-misleading analogies...

[King of Kensington]

"Hillary vs. Obama" isn't a perfect analogy, obviously, but there were aspects of it in the 2014 election.

[King of Kensington]

When was the last time the NDP had 2 seats or less in Toronto at Queen's Park? Anyone???

Never.  Even in 1963, when they only had 7 seats in the province, they won 3 seats in Toronto - York South, Scarborough West and Yorkview.  

(Corrected as I had forgotten about Yorkview.)

[DL]

Shouldn't Bramalea-Gore-Malton and Oshawa also be considered Toronto seats?

[King of Kensington]

Are they in Toronto?

[Hatman 🍁]

Are they in Toronto?

Technically no, but this isn't a question of technicality. Politically, they're in a region (the 905) that is its own animal, so I would exclude them. But then again, Toronto (the 416) is itself a divided city between at least 2 geopolitical regions ("Elitist" core vs. "Ford Nation" suburbs). 

[King of Kensington]

BGM I can see the argument that it's "basically Toronto" but Oshawa is still very much its own entity culturally, even if part of the GTA.

But this argument doesn't exactly get the NDP off the hook, because 4 out of 45 seats isn't any more impressive than 2 out of 22 seats.  And there are fewer winnable 905 seats than 416 seats even in the best of scenarios.

If the NDP wants to displace the Liberals as the party for "liberally minded Ontarians" and have a NDP/Conservative polarization in Ontario, they have to drive the Liberals out of their stronghold.  Moving into Official Opposition or government requires that the NDP does much, much better in Toronto as the "southwest Ontario strategy" has mostly been accomplished.  I would say that's a far better route strategically than thinking the NDP is going to be driving out Conservatives in central and eastern Ontario - those that stuck with Hudak in that disastrous campaign for the PCs.

[DL]

Bramalea-Gore-Malton and Oshawa are part of the Greater Toronto Area and are essentially suburban Toronto (especially the former). Back in 1963 - all of what is now Mississauga, Brampton and York Region was just farmers fields and the entire Toronto metropolitan area was contained in what is now the City of Toronto but was then Metro Toronto made up of six boroughs...with the explosive growth of Toronto, the city has overflowed well beyond its boundaries and so a place like Bramalea-Gore Malton is basically an overflow of northern Etobicoke - and while Oshawa was once considered a separate city from Toronto - its now basically been absorbed by Toronto and is most made up of suburban commuters.

In the long run the suburban belt around Toronto is where almost all the population growth will be concentrated and where new seats will be created in every future redistribution...if the NDP is ever to take power in Ontario - it really won't be about winning back a couple of seats in downtown Toronto. It will be about winning new burgeoning suburban seats like Bramalea-Gore-Malton which are low income and heavily ethnic. Now that the average single family home in the old City of Toronto sells for about a million dollars - the downtown ridings are fast becoming a very wealthy enclave that will likely swing to the right politically since only super rich people will be able to afford to live there.