Greek election - January 25th 2015

[Philip Weisler]

See ''To Potami leader to set out coalition terms'' in Kathimerini (ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_20/01/2015_546383):

To Potami leader Stavros Theodorakis is on Wednesday expected to say that he will not consider working with SYRIZA after the elections unless the leftists agree to conclude the pending troika review before launching any discussion with Greece’s lenders about debt relief.

I would expect Potami to surge, were it not for the plurality bonus. As you say, I think moderates will pick Syriza - not because they are particularly enamoured with leftists, but to vote against the ECB.

EDIT: Today's article (ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_21/01/2015_546396):

To Potami will not take part in a government which will not support Greece's position within Europe, the center-left party's founder and head Stavros Theodorakis, said during a press conference in Athens on Wednesday.

As I previously argued, I'd expect Potami to ally with ND and PASOK on matters related to the Greek ''European perspective''. They're going to be pro-bailout.

[swl]

It seems like a sound position, Greece should turn this page before starting a new one.
At this point my favorite outcome for this election is a Syriza + To Potami coalition.

When are the last polls published?

[politicus]

When are the last polls published?

Friday

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

@Philip, do you really expect is Syriza get the 50 seat bonus (and they probably will), To Potami will try to cobble together with a some sort of ND-PASOK alliance with no way near a majority?

They want to be in government and will do a deal with either party that wins the bonus - which looks like Syriza if the polls are doing good and people are being honest in their responses. That said, such a government possibly won't last a full term - either due to To Potami pulling out or (more likely) defectional disorder among Syriza.

Venizelos has just said he is open to PASOK being in a Syriza led government as has Kammenos of ANEL.

[Philip Weisler]

I'm actually also hoping SYRIZA wins, preferably with no more than 150 seats . There will be a clear majority of anti-system parties and I'd like to see some kind of coalition between SYRIZA and ANEL. I've considered for a long time that a Greek default and return to the drachma would be a better option.

It seems like a sound position, Greece should turn this page before starting a new one.
At this point my favorite outcome for this election is a Syriza + To Potami coalition.

When are the last polls published?

[Philip Weisler]

@Crabcake: As the sources said, Potami is open for a coalition with SYRIZA only in case they'll give up their left-wing populist line and essentially find a compromise with the troika. Should SYRIZA choose this course of action, they risk with a collapse of support similar to that experienced by PASOK since 2011.

EDIT: Remember, even DIMAR ''cobbled together'' an alliance with ND+PASOK. And DIMAR was clearly a left-wing (albeit very pro-euro) party, unlike Potami that has electoral cooperation with the neoliberal Drasi.

@Philip, do you really expect is Syriza get the 50 seat bonus (and they probably will), To Potami will try to cobble together with a some sort of ND-PASOK alliance with no way near a majority?

They want to be in government and will do a deal with either party that wins the bonus - which looks like Syriza if the polls are doing good and people are being honest in their responses. That said, such a government possibly won't last a full term - either due to To Potami pulling out or (more likely) defectional disorder among Syriza.

Venizelos has just said he is open to PASOK being in a Syriza led government as has Kammenos of ANEL.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

you're missing my point.

These will be the results from a random poll I picked where Syriza did worse than average.

Syriza (37.4%) + bonus: 145
ND (33.7%): 85
XA (7.1%): 17
KKE (6.2%): 15
POTAMI (6.1%): 15
PASOK (5.0%): 12
ANEL (4.6%): 11

Any government needs 150 seats. The present coalition is reduced to 100 and needs 50 more, so unless you see an anti-Syriza coalition with everyone from the Commies to Golden Dawn, Tspiras will be PM. (unless polls are drastically wrong).

True, Syriza will then need confidence from a partner. The thing is he has a wide choice to chose from - any one of ANEL, PASOK, Potami or even Papandreou's outfit, want the influence of government; so they are in no position to make Syriza make drastic concessions otherwise Tspiras will say "k, we don't need you anyway". He can even decide to freak them out by threatening the spectre of a Syriza-Communist alliance or a reelection which would squeeze the third party vote.

Of the choices, Alexis will probably want Potami the most (being the least "tainted") but he would presumably drive a hard bargain.

[justfollowingtheelections]

A few more polls from the biggest districts:

Athens A (14 seats)
SYRIZA 33.12
ND 25.5
KKE 4.08
PASOK 3.8
GD 3.66
Potami 3.29
ANEL 2.49
DIMAR 1.36
Papandreou 0.23
Other 0.09

Athens A (the city of Athens) is a little more conservative and more affluent, so this a little surprising.  ND had actually won this district in 2012.

Athens B (44 seats)
SYRIZA 33.18
ND 19.37
KKE 3.11
GD 2.86
ANEL 2.74
PASOK 2.66
Potami 2.16
Papandreou 1.3
LAOS 1.23
Other 0.52

Athens B is more working class and it was the best SYRIZA district in 2012 and also the biggest in the country (by far).

Thessaloniki A (16 seats)
SYRIZA 35.31
ND 20.19
GD 6.11
ANEL 5.83
PASOK 4.71
KKE 4.49
Potami 2.43
LAOS 0.82
Papandreou 0.6
Greens 0.52 (running with SYRIZA)
Other 4.45

Thessaloniki B (9 seats)
SYRIZA 34.17
ND 23.93
GD 6.95
ANEL 5.8
Potami 3.25
KKE 2.86
LAOS 1.95
Papandreou 0.72
PASOK 0.72
Other 1.16

The Thessaloniki results are quite interesting because they (as well as most of Macedonia and Thrace) usually vote more conservative since they're more concerned with national security issues.  ND had actually won Thessaloniki in 2012.

By the way, I found some interesting pictures that I thought you might want to see:
This is an old picture of Samaras and Kammenos (ANEL leader) from when they were still close:


And this is a picture from the wedding of Makis Voridis:

The best man at his wedding was Carl Lang (he is the man to the right of Voridis) a former FN MEP and the current leader of the far-right Party of France.

[y]

A few more  from the biggest districts:
 

assuming that all lists have candidates in each constituency I think the difference in the polls for "others" is quite striking.
So there would be 0,09% for others in Athens A incl. Antarsya and LAOS vs. 4,45% in Thessaloniki A only for Antarsya plus splinter parties like the Panagrarian Labour Movement?
By "Greens" is meant the splinter from Ecologist Greens, which runs with DIMAR.

[y]

you're missing my point.

These will be the results from a random poll I picked where Syriza did worse than average.

Syriza (37.4%) 

a typo?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

yes, I effed up the calculation on the site I use to calculate these things. Still the point stands - Syriza has been throughout this year at between 140-150 seats, and an ND led coalition would be next to impossible even if ANEL and Potami join in for whatever reason.

[Insula Dei]

A few more polls from the biggest districts:

Athens A (14 seats)
SYRIZA 33.12
ND 25.5
KKE 4.08
PASOK 3.8
GD 3.66
Potami 3.29
ANEL 2.49
DIMAR 1.36
Papandreou 0.23
Other 0.09

Athens A (the city of Athens) is a little more conservative and more affluent, so this a little surprising.  ND had actually won this district in 2012.

Athens B (44 seats)
SYRIZA 33.18
ND 19.37
KKE 3.11
GD 2.86
ANEL 2.74
PASOK 2.66
Potami 2.16
Papandreou 1.3
LAOS 1.23
Other 0.52

Athens B is more working class and it was the best SYRIZA district in 2012 and also the biggest in the country (by far).

Thessaloniki A (16 seats)
SYRIZA 35.31
ND 20.19
GD 6.11
ANEL 5.83
PASOK 4.71
KKE 4.49
Potami 2.43
LAOS 0.82
Papandreou 0.6
Greens 0.52 (running with SYRIZA)
Other 4.45

Thessaloniki B (9 seats)
SYRIZA 34.17
ND 23.93
GD 6.95
ANEL 5.8
Potami 3.25
KKE 2.86
LAOS 1.95
Papandreou 0.72
PASOK 0.72
Other 1.16

The Thessaloniki results are quite interesting because they (as well as most of Macedonia and Thrace) usually vote more conservative since they're more concerned with national security issues.  ND had actually won Thessaloniki in 2012.

By the way, I found some interesting pictures that I thought you might want to see:
This is an old picture of Samaras and Kammenos (ANEL leader) from when they were still close:


And this is a picture from the wedding of Makis Voridis:

The best man at his wedding was Carl Lang (he is the man to the right of Voridis) a former FN MEP and the current leader of the far-right Party of France.

Makis 'The Hammer' Voridis.

[politicus]

And this is a picture from the wedding of Makis Voridis:

The best man at his wedding was Carl Lang (he is the man to the right of Voridis) a former FN MEP and the current leader of the far-right Party of France.

Reminds me that no one answred this:

Voridis at the congress of Parti de la France, an anti-Marine FN breakaway founded in 2009 by Carl Lang.



For those knowledgeable of French politics: I assume Lang broke with FN because he didn't like Marine le Pen and the modernizers "going soft"?

Voridis was close to Jean-Marie Le Pen, so it would make sense if Lang was old guard.

[Zanas]

A few more polls from the biggest districts:

Athens A (14 seats)
SYRIZA 33.12
ND 25.5
KKE 4.08
PASOK 3.8
GD 3.66
Potami 3.29
ANEL 2.49
DIMAR 1.36
Papandreou 0.23
Other 0.09

Athens A (the city of Athens) is a little more conservative and more affluent, so this a little surprising.  ND had actually won this district in 2012.

Athens B (44 seats)
SYRIZA 33.18
ND 19.37
KKE 3.11
GD 2.86
ANEL 2.74
PASOK 2.66
Potami 2.16
Papandreou 1.3
LAOS 1.23
Other 0.52

Athens B is more working class and it was the best SYRIZA district in 2012 and also the biggest in the country (by far).

Thessaloniki A (16 seats)
SYRIZA 35.31
ND 20.19
GD 6.11
ANEL 5.83
PASOK 4.71
KKE 4.49
Potami 2.43
LAOS 0.82
Papandreou 0.6
Greens 0.52 (running with SYRIZA)
Other 4.45

Thessaloniki B (9 seats)
SYRIZA 34.17
ND 23.93
GD 6.95
ANEL 5.8
Potami 3.25
KKE 2.86
LAOS 1.95
Papandreou 0.72
PASOK 0.72
Other 1.16

The Thessaloniki results are quite interesting because they (as well as most of Macedonia and Thrace) usually vote more conservative since they're more concerned with national security issues.  ND had actually won Thessaloniki in 2012.

These numbers only add up to 69% to 84% depending on which constituency, plus they are completely all over the place and pretty inconsistent with anything we've seen so far in national polling, even if we correct with tendencies we know about Thessaloniki or both districts of Athens.

And then, you know, constituency polling.

So I'd take them with quite a large amount of the proverbial grains of salt...

[y]

the missing percentages from the linked source:

Athens A constituency:
no answer 4,08%
blank/ spoilt vote 0,11%
undecided 18,5%

Athens B:
no answer 9,76%
blank 0,82%
undecided 20,29%

Thessaloniki A:
no answer 1,24%
blank 0,92%
undecided 12,4%

Thessaloniki B:
no answer 0,55%
blank 0,22%
undecided 17,73%

They state to have sampled 800-1000 people per region.

[Bacon King]

Major caveat about constituency polling: it is literally meaningless in determining the election's winner

In terms of partisan composition, the Greek Parliament determined solely by nationwide D'Hondt PR. The electoral system works backwards from there to assign the proper number of victorious candidates to each party meeting the 3% threshold. The electoral districts elect between one and forty-two MP's via closed party list, and in general more votes for a party means more of that party's list gets elected there, but there's a complicated formula with lots of thresholds and quotas to be elected at the district level and there are also 12 MPs elected nationwide without being on anyone's ballots- somehow it all balances out in the end (if you're curious, IIRC Lewis found the full rules and explained it all in the 2012 thread). The 50-seat bonus for the largest party is built into this system somehow, coming from their district's prescribed number of MPs. Ultimately, constituency polling can't tell you much about which party's MPs are elected from that constituency, because even the actual constituency results can't really tell you that.

edit- a great example of this is Athens A in May 2012:

SYRIZA: 19.12% (3 seats)
ND: 15.79% (8 seats)
PASOK: 9.71% (1 seat)
ANEL: 8.98% (1 seat)
XA: 8.77% (2 seats)
KKE: 8.58% (1 seat)
DIMAR: 5.99% (1 seat)

[swl]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yes, after the presidential election of 2007 where Jean-Marie Le Pen fared badly,  the FN "old guard" blamed Marine Le Pen and her "going soft" (dédiabolization) strategy (she was her father's campaign strategist). She eventually prevailed against them, some stayed (like Bruno Gollnisch), some left (Carl Lang, Jean-Claude Martinez...)

[Zanas]

I have two big question marks for y'all :
1) Is the XA vote underestimated in the polls ? I mean, in nearly every other instance in Europe, the far-right vote is underestimated in polls by 2 to 5 points. XA has decreased a lot in the polls in 2014, and they have now been steady at 6-7% for a long time, but can we totally rule out that they end up getting a lot more than that ? And in that case, what would you expect ? 9% ? Over 10% ?

2) Will there be a classic "shy conservative status-quo voter" effect that could make the undecideds break heavily for ND on voting day ? If so, could that effect bring ND above Syriza for first place ? Again, ND has been steadily polling 3-4 pts behind Syriza for well over six months now, could all that be just erased with a stroke of a magic wand in the end with fear tactics and shy dumb voters that prefer the status quo ?

You have 4 hours.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I remember XA was underpolled in June 2012. Maybe the pollsters have found ways to account for that, but still, sadly I do expect them to do better.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Major caveat about constituency polling: it is literally meaningless in determining the election's winner

In terms of partisan composition, the Greek Parliament determined solely by nationwide D'Hondt PR.

Yes we all know that but I don't see how that makes the polls meaningless.

Anyway, another poll, this time for Crete:
SYRIZA 32.9%
ND 13.4%
Potami (Centre-Left) 4.4%
KKE 3.8%
PASOK 3.8%
Movement of Democrat Socialists 2.5%
GD 1.6%
ANTARSYA 1.2%
ANEL 0.9%
DIMAR 0.3%
LAOS 0.1%
Other party 1.7%
Blank/spoiled ballot 4.7%
Undecided vote 28.7%

Crete has always been the most left-wing area in Greece, so the results aren't really that surprising, but it's still interesting that 5 of the top 6 parties lean to the left (I'm not sure how true that is of Potami, but they're certainly the most left-wing party on social issues).  Even ANTARSYA is doing really well.

[politicus]

Crete has always been the most left-wing area in Greece, so the results aren't really that surprising, but it's still interesting that 5 of the top 6 parties lean to the left (I'm not sure how true that is of Potami, but they're certainly the most left-wing party on social issues).  Even ANTARSYA is doing really well.

That is a very American way of looking at things. Potami - as it has evolved - is a Social Liberal party, which places them on the moderate centre-right by traditional European standards. It is the bourgeois vs. social democratic/socialist divide, where economy trumps social issues. I still think this way of looking at things basically makes the most sense regarding Europe.

Surprised Crete isn't even further to the left actually.

[Tender Branson]

That late ND-surge doesn't seem to materialize (in fact, the opposite thing happens).

My new prediction:

38% SYRIZA
28% ND
  8% Potami
  7% XA
  5% KKE
  4% PASOK
  4% ANEL
  3% Kinima
  1% DIMAR
  2% Others

Turnout: 70%

[Famous Mortimer]

Regardless of whether social issues matter, can anyone say with confidence that The River is more liberal than SYRIZA on social issues? SYRIZA favors basically open immigration. I'm betting they also favor gay marriage too.

[politicus]

Regardless of whether social issues matter, can anyone say with confidence that The River is more liberal than SYRIZA on social issues? SYRIZA favors basically open immigration. I'm betting they also favor gay marriage too.

Yes they do. Potami/Syriza is about the same on social issue from what I know.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Regardless of whether social issues matter, can anyone say with confidence that The River is more liberal than SYRIZA on social issues? SYRIZA favors basically open immigration. I'm betting they also favor gay marriage too.

The only reason I said that Potami is the most liberal on social issues is because Tsipras has been trying to moderate and develop closer ties to the church (probably because he has claimed in the past he's an atheist).  I was also only referring to the parties that have a chance of electing MPs, because DIMAR or ANTARSYA are probably even more liberal on social issues.  And I'm not sure where the Papandreou party stands.  Papandreou himself is very liberal on social issues, but PASOK always seemed to hold moderate hero positions.