What would happen if Mississippi became 50% black?

[Boston Bread]

Based on demographic trends, MS will become 50% African-American mid-century. But let's say we speed it up and it was 50% black by 2015. And also let's suppose that black turnout remains equal to white turnout as was the case in 2012, even when Obama is off the ballot. As a result democrats now win statewide elections, narrowly but consistently. The legislature would still depend on the distribution of the black vote, but let's say democrats are able to retake it as well. (it isn't gerrymandered to my knowledge)

A couple things I wonder about this situation:
1) How much of a white backlash would there be? Would they start voting 90+% for their party like blacks currently do? Or would they start rejoining the MS democratic party which is now the dominant party again? Would whites start moving out en masse in response?
2) How progressive would a state government dominated by black democrats be? Not on social issues (but still pro-choice) of course but would they go to the left or the right of national democrats on economics?
3) How long would MS stay as a one-party state? Would the GOP eventually win back enough blacks to become competitive again?
4) Would racial inequality in the state start declining? Or is it not a result of government policies?

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

The white vote is nearly maxed out in MS for Republicans at 90%, but with a clear demographic threat from blacks they could vote 95% + for Republicans. If blacks went back to turning out at lower levels as they did pre Obama, Republicans could hold onto the state for the foreseeable future.

There are some deep southern congressional districts that are over 50 % Black but vote Republican due to turnout issues.

[Sol]

The white vote is nearly maxed out in MS for Republicans at 90%, but with a clear demographic threat from blacks they could vote 95% + for Republicans. If blacks went back to turning out at lower levels as they did pre Obama, Republicans could hold onto the state for the foreseeable future.

There are some deep southern congressional districts that are over 50 % Black but vote Republican due to turnout issues.

Not at all. Democrats hold every single majority black district. You're thinking of latin@s.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

He probably meant counties.

[IceSpear]

Don't MS whites already vote 90% Republican?

[Sol]

He probably meant counties.

IIRC the only county which votes like this West Feliciana County*. Which is only barely majority black due to Angola Prison, which obviously doesn't vote.

*I am vitriolically opposed to Lousiana's terrible system of county naming.

[ElectionsGuy]

Based on demographic trends, MS will become 50% African-American mid-century. But let's say we speed it up and it was 50% black by 2015. And also let's suppose that black turnout remains equal to white turnout as was the case in 2012, even when Obama is off the ballot. As a result democrats now win statewide elections, narrowly but consistently. The legislature would still depend on the distribution of the black vote, but let's say democrats are able to retake it as well. (it isn't gerrymandered to my knowledge)

A couple things I wonder about this situation:
1) How much of a white backlash would there be? Would they start voting 90+% for their party like blacks currently do? Or would they start rejoining the MS democratic party which is now the dominant party again? Would whites start moving out en masse in response?
2) How progressive would a state government dominated by black democrats be? Not on social issues (but still pro-choice) of course but would they go to the left or the right of national democrats on economics?
3) How long would MS stay as a one-party state? Would the GOP eventually win back enough blacks to become competitive again?
4) Would racial inequality in the state start declining? Or is it not a result of government policies?

1) Can't really imagine "white backlash", they already vote 90% Republican (at least at the federal level), I can't see them defecting to the Democratic party again after the Bush/Obama years. If the whites are really as racist as people on this forum think, they could move to Alabama or Louisiana, but I doubt that happens. They just stay put and keep voting for Republicans, as blacks are now (for Democrats).
2) Not very progressive. They would be to the right of the Democratic party as a whole (as southern black congressmen/women are), especially on social issues, but still much to the left of where Mississippi is today
3) If its 50% black, that's well over what black % it needs to be to stay democratic for a long time, I can't see the GOP winning over many blacks.
4) Eh, it could, but that's less about government policy than it is the evolution of the state. Mississippi has almost always been the poorest and least educated state in America, whether under Democratic control for 100+ years or Republican control now. Many blacks in the south don't get an even sub-par education, which is a huge problem that government itself can't really solve. Many are also born into poverty, which is a huge inherent problem. I'm not suggesting solutions to these problems but that these problems have been long term, which government hasn't improved the situation relative to the rest of the country (it obviously has made progress, but compared to the country MS is still dead last in many areas)

The white vote is nearly maxed out in MS for Republicans at 90%, but with a clear demographic threat from blacks they could vote 95% + for Republicans. If blacks went back to turning out at lower levels as they did pre Obama, Republicans could hold onto the state for the foreseeable future.

There are some deep southern congressional districts that are over 50 % Black but vote Republican due to turnout issues.

Perhaps your talking about state legislature seats? All majority black southern Congressional districts are Democratic.

[Padfoot]

I think a truly 50-50 state would actually end up being more beneficial to Republicans in the long run.  Since the state would essentially be a toss-up based on current racial voting patterns it would probably start out as a turnout competition.  However it could evolve into a "vote stealing" operation where the GOP starts using Mississippi as a test lab for how to win more black voters.  Once they perfected their strategies they could take them nationwide and potentially decimate the current Democratic hold on black voters.

[Sol]

I think a truly 50-50 state would actually end up being more beneficial to Republicans in the long run.  Since the state would essentially be a toss-up based on current racial voting patterns it would probably start out as a turnout competition.  However it could evolve into a "vote stealing" operation where the GOP starts using Mississippi as a test lab for how to win more black voters.  Once they perfected their strategies they could take them nationwide and potentially decimate the current Democratic hold on black voters.

Even in MS about 10% of white voters are democrats, so even a minor increase in the GOP black vote wouldn't mean much.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's worth noting that Mississippi is about 4% neither white nor black, so in a 50% black, 46% white and 4% other demographic, the Democrats definitely have the advantage even if the other vote is about 50/50, which it probably isn't. Also let's compare two counties:

Attala County
Romney 5,126   56.38%
Obama  3,927   43.19%

Yazoo County
Obama 6,603   56.82%
Romney 4,941   42.52%

Alright, so pretty close to mirror images in voting percentages. Now demographics:

Attala County
56.2% White
42.0% Black

Yazoo County
44.74% White
53.96% Black

And finally population:

Attala County 19,564 (~46% turnout)
Yazoo County 28,065 (~41% turnout)

So based on that I'm sure someone could calculate turnout rates for both whites and blacks, but I'm too tired to do it now. However it does appear that the 4% other would prevent it from being a true pure swing state.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Things would get done to improve conditions in the state, as they wouldn't have those nasty white Repubs electing their own obstructionist dogs en masse.

[Brittain33]

Gerrymandering and voter ID laws would preserve minority rule in the legislature and the governor's office would likely be circumscribed constitutionally to support that.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It would still lean R due to turnout differentials.

[Sol]

It would still lean R due to turnout differentials.

No, not really. Even if African-Americans start returning to a pattern of substantially lower turnout than whites (not very likely, IMO) there is still a good 6%-7% of MS non-blacks who vote D, and these groups provide an extra cushion.

[ElectionsGuy]

It would still lean R due to turnout differentials.

Eh, I would contest that statement. As of the 2012 presidential race black turnout was only slightly behind white turnout (in MS, nationwide it was actually slightly higher than white turnout). So 55-44 Romney in a 58% white state.

The black turnout in 2014 was abysmal, so that's probably a bad example. Using the 2012 figures, a 50% black MS would vote around 55/45 D.

[IceSpear]

After we get a million Bay Area liberals to move to Wyoming, we can then get all the blacks in Alabama to migrate into Mississippi. 4 new Democratic senators!

[muon2]

He probably meant counties.

IIRC the only county which votes like this West Feliciana County*. Which is only barely majority black due to Angola Prison, which obviously doesn't vote.

*I am vitriolically opposed to Lousiana's terrible system of county naming.

It happens more frequently in off-year elections when turnout is lower. Sussex VA (58% black) voted 52-48 for McDonnell in 2009 as did Brunswick VA (57% black) by 50-49.  

[politicus]

After we get a million Bay Area liberals to move to Wyoming

300.000 should be more than enough.

[Brittain33]

It happens more frequently in off-year elections when turnout is lower. Sussex VA (58% black) voted 52-48 for McDonnell in 2009 as did Brunswick VA (57% black) by 50-49.  

It seems like Sussex, and less so Brunswick, are rural counties with sizable prisons that affect the data the same way that Angola does in Louisiana.

https://vadoc.virginia.gov/facilities/eastern/sussex1/
https://vadoc.virginia.gov/facilities/eastern/brunswick/

I didn't know about Brunswick but I remembered Sussex because there was some year when it was one of the fastest growing counties in Virginia because the prison had just opened.

(on edit: here's the story, Sussex County was the fastest growing county in the entire U.S. because of the prison population. http://www.ncpa.org/sub/dpd/index.php?Article_ID=10430)

[muon2]

It happens more frequently in off-year elections when turnout is lower. Sussex VA (58% black) voted 52-48 for McDonnell in 2009 as did Brunswick VA (57% black) by 50-49.  

It seems like Sussex, and less so Brunswick, are rural counties with sizable prisons that affect the data the same way that Angola does in Louisiana.

https://vadoc.virginia.gov/facilities/eastern/sussex1/
https://vadoc.virginia.gov/facilities/eastern/brunswick/

I didn't know about Brunswick but I remembered Sussex because there was some year when it was one of the fastest growing counties in Virginia because the prison had just opened.

(on edit: here's the story, Sussex County was the fastest growing county in the entire U.S. because of the prison population. http://www.ncpa.org/sub/dpd/index.php?Article_ID=10430)

All the Census tracts in Sussex, and all but one in Brunswick are majority black. In both counties the prisons are given their own census tract, and that tract can be deducted from the county totals. With that adjustment both counties are still majority black.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

The white vote is nearly maxed out in MS for Republicans at 90%, but with a clear demographic threat from blacks they could vote 95% + for Republicans. If blacks went back to turning out at lower levels as they did pre Obama, Republicans could hold onto the state for the foreseeable future.

There are some deep southern congressional districts that are over 50 % Black but vote Republican due to turnout issues.

Not at all. Democrats hold every single majority black district. You're thinking of latin@s.

I see you don't understand the Spanish language. Mixed-gender groups default to male.

[memphis]

It would fall even further behind on every conceivable statistical representation.

[justfollowingtheelections]

It would fall even further behind on every conceivable statistical representation.

That's quite racist.

[Sol]

The white vote is nearly maxed out in MS for Republicans at 90%, but with a clear demographic threat from blacks they could vote 95% + for Republicans. If blacks went back to turning out at lower levels as they did pre Obama, Republicans could hold onto the state for the foreseeable future.

There are some deep southern congressional districts that are over 50 % Black but vote Republican due to turnout issues.

Not at all. Democrats hold every single majority black district. You're thinking of latin@s.

I see you don't understand the Spanish language. Mixed-gender groups default to male.

I am aware of that. But it is also my understanding that Spanish-speaking tumblr leftists use @ instead of <a> or <o> in writing, and since I am a tumblr leftist, I do the same.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

The white vote is nearly maxed out in MS for Republicans at 90%, but with a clear demographic threat from blacks they could vote 95% + for Republicans. If blacks went back to turning out at lower levels as they did pre Obama, Republicans could hold onto the state for the foreseeable future.

There are some deep southern congressional districts that are over 50 % Black but vote Republican due to turnout issues.

Not at all. Democrats hold every single majority black district. You're thinking of latin@s.

I see you don't understand the Spanish language. Mixed-gender groups default to male.

I am aware of that. But it is also my understanding that Spanish-speaking tumblr leftists use @ instead of <a> or <o> in writing, and since I am a tumblr leftist, I do the same.

So it has spread.