Worst Midterm Defeat in last 50 years
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  Worst Midterm Defeat in last 50 years
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Author Topic: Worst Midterm Defeat in last 50 years  (Read 7120 times)
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« on: December 23, 2014, 01:30:56 PM »

1974
1982
1986
1994
2006
2010
2014

Mine would be

1. 1994( Republican get both houses of congress for first time in 40 years)
2. 1974(Democrats get super majorities)
3. 2014(Democrats lose the Senete, Lowest state legislator since before the depression)
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1 on: December 23, 2014, 06:07:50 PM »

1974 or 1994. For long-term impact I'd say 1994.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #2 on: December 24, 2014, 05:12:45 AM »

1994, 2006, and 2010 shifted the balance of power dramatically.  Before 1994, it was understood that the Dems dominated in the House, but after that the Dems began to dominate in the prez 16/20 yrs, G.O. P House 16/20 yrs and Senate 10/10 yrs.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #3 on: December 24, 2014, 09:55:53 AM »

1974 and 1994, or possibly 1982.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #4 on: December 24, 2014, 10:38:05 AM »

I like 2006 because no one expected the Dems to take back the Senate, plus I think no Democrat running for federal office that year anywhere in the country lost. While it didn't form a permanent realignment, that win was necessary for Obama to enact the legislation he did in 2009-2010. 

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Vosem
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« Reply #5 on: December 24, 2014, 01:54:02 PM »

While it narrowly misses your cutoff, I would have to say 1958 was singularly bad. Past that, I would have to say a three-way tie between 1980, 1994, and 2010: this is a simplistic metric, but if you count each Senate seat as 4.35 House seats and add it to the House total, in 1980 the GOP gained 86 seats; in 1994 they gained 89; and in 2010 they gained 89. (By contrast, the Democratic total in 1958 was an unearthly 119; in 1974 it was "just" 75; 57 in 2006; 59 in 2008; and the Republican total was 52 in 2014).
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #6 on: December 24, 2014, 02:02:12 PM »

The worst Senate defeats were 1958, 1986, 1994, 2006 and 2014, while the worst House defeats were 1958, 1966, 1974, 1982, 1994 and 2010.
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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« Reply #7 on: December 24, 2014, 02:59:26 PM »

While it narrowly misses your cutoff, I would have to say 1958 was singularly bad. Past that, I would have to say a three-way tie between 1980, 1994, and 2010: this is a simplistic metric, but if you count each Senate seat as 4.35 House seats and add it to the House total, in 1980 the GOP gained 86 seats; in 1994 they gained 89; and in 2010 they gained 89. (By contrast, the Democratic total in 1958 was an unearthly 119; in 1974 it was "just" 75; 57 in 2006; 59 in 2008; and the Republican total was 52 in 2014).

Would 2014 be disastrous as well as Democrats now only hold 1/3 of governerships and state legislators. This would be a disaster as many of the republicans have a much bigger farm to choose candiates for the house senete and presidency then democrats.
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hopper
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« Reply #8 on: December 24, 2014, 04:43:42 PM »
« Edited: December 24, 2014, 05:12:11 PM by hopper »

1974(The Dems pick up supermajorties.)
1994(The GOP picks up 54 US House Seats and 8 US Senate Seats.)
2006(The Dems pick up 31 US House Seats and 6 US Senate Seats.)
2010(The GOP nets 64 US House Seats for control of the chamber and 6 US Senate Seats.)
2014(the GOP gains 15 House Seats and 9 Us Senate Seats.)
1986(The Dems gain control of the US Senate and add 5 US House Seats to their majority.)
1982(The GOP didn't lose their Senate Majority so I picked 1986 over 1982.)
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #9 on: December 24, 2014, 05:15:51 PM »

The worst Senate defeats were 1958, 1986, 1994, 2006 and 2014, while the worst House defeats were 1958, 1966, 1974, 1982, 1994 and 2010.
I think this nails it.
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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« Reply #10 on: December 24, 2014, 05:54:12 PM »

1974(The Dems pick up supermajorties.)
1994(The GOP picks up 54 US House Seats and 8 US Senate Seats.)
2006(The Dems pick up 31 US House Seats and 6 US Senate Seats.)
2010(The GOP nets 64 US House Seats for control of the chamber and 6 US Senate Seats.)
2014(the GOP gains 15 House Seats and 9 Us Senate Seats.)
1986(The Dems gain control of the US Senate and add 5 US House Seats to their majority.)
1982(The GOP didn't lose their Senate Majority so I picked 1986 over 1982.)

2014 was worse then 2010
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #11 on: December 24, 2014, 10:21:40 PM »

While it narrowly misses your cutoff, I would have to say 1958 was singularly bad. Past that, I would have to say a three-way tie between 1980, 1994, and 2010: this is a simplistic metric, but if you count each Senate seat as 4.35 House seats and add it to the House total, in 1980 the GOP gained 86 seats; in 1994 they gained 89; and in 2010 they gained 89. (By contrast, the Democratic total in 1958 was an unearthly 119; in 1974 it was "just" 75; 57 in 2006; 59 in 2008; and the Republican total was 52 in 2014).

1958 was an underrated election.  That election was a large part of the reason why Democrats controlled the House until 1994 and the Senate for all but six years until 1994.
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TheElectoralBoobyPrize
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« Reply #12 on: December 25, 2014, 12:14:54 AM »

While it narrowly misses your cutoff, I would have to say 1958 was singularly bad. Past that, I would have to say a three-way tie between 1980, 1994, and 2010: this is a simplistic metric, but if you count each Senate seat as 4.35 House seats and add it to the House total, in 1980 the GOP gained 86 seats; in 1994 they gained 89; and in 2010 they gained 89. (By contrast, the Democratic total in 1958 was an unearthly 119; in 1974 it was "just" 75; 57 in 2006; 59 in 2008; and the Republican total was 52 in 2014).

1958 was an underrated election.  That election was a large part of the reason why Democrats controlled the House until 1994 and the Senate for all but six years until 1994.

Yeah in the previous eight years, the parties were pretty closely divided. 1958 cost Republicans their northern majority in Congress (by that, I mean they had the majority of seats outside the South).

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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« Reply #13 on: December 25, 2014, 12:17:47 AM »

Yup 1958 was a disaster . I think 1994 is basically a reverse 1958
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #14 on: December 25, 2014, 09:34:55 AM »

While it narrowly misses your cutoff, I would have to say 1958 was singularly bad. Past that, I would have to say a three-way tie between 1980, 1994, and 2010: this is a simplistic metric, but if you count each Senate seat as 4.35 House seats and add it to the House total, in 1980 the GOP gained 86 seats; in 1994 they gained 89; and in 2010 they gained 89. (By contrast, the Democratic total in 1958 was an unearthly 119; in 1974 it was "just" 75; 57 in 2006; 59 in 2008; and the Republican total was 52 in 2014).

1958 was an underrated election.  That election was a large part of the reason why Democrats controlled the House until 1994 and the Senate for all but six years until 1994.

Yeah in the previous eight years, the parties were pretty closely divided. 1958 cost Republicans their northern majority in Congress (by that, I mean they had the majority of seats outside the South).



And the fact that it happened so close to redistricting(in 1961), it allowed Democrats to lock in many of their northern House and state legislative gains for decades.

Not to mention the lopsided Den Senate class elected this year was lucky enough to only be up for election in good Dem years until 1994.  Without this Senate class, Republicans may have controlled the Senate more often from 1958-1980.
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #15 on: December 25, 2014, 06:19:08 PM »

While it narrowly misses your cutoff, I would have to say 1958 was singularly bad. Past that, I would have to say a three-way tie between 1980, 1994, and 2010: this is a simplistic metric, but if you count each Senate seat as 4.35 House seats and add it to the House total, in 1980 the GOP gained 86 seats; in 1994 they gained 89; and in 2010 they gained 89. (By contrast, the Democratic total in 1958 was an unearthly 119; in 1974 it was "just" 75; 57 in 2006; 59 in 2008; and the Republican total was 52 in 2014).

1958 was an underrated election.  That election was a large part of the reason why Democrats controlled the House until 1994 and the Senate for all but six years until 1994.

Yeah in the previous eight years, the parties were pretty closely divided. 1958 cost Republicans their northern majority in Congress (by that, I mean they had the majority of seats outside the South).



And the fact that it happened so close to redistricting(in 1961), it allowed Democrats to lock in many of their northern House and state legislative gains for decades.

Not to mention the lopsided Den Senate class elected this year was lucky enough to only be up for election in good Dem years until 1994.  Without this Senate class, Republicans may have controlled the Senate more often from 1958-1980.

It's also interesting how this class is now lopsidedly Democratic again, thanks to gains in 2000, 2006 and 2012.
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Ebowed
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« Reply #16 on: December 26, 2014, 12:51:52 AM »

I like 2006 because no one expected the Dems to take back the Senate, plus I think no Democrat running for federal office that year anywhere in the country lost.

Correct, assuming you;re referring to Democratic incumbents, and I believe that's the only time in recent history where this has happened for either party.
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« Reply #17 on: December 26, 2014, 01:14:00 AM »

I like 2006 because no one expected the Dems to take back the Senate

*ahem*

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2006/pred.php
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International Brotherhood of Bernard
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« Reply #18 on: December 26, 2014, 01:20:40 AM »

Well if that had actually happened Republicans would've controlled the Senate because they had the VP, so it doesn't seem like you're disagreeing.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #19 on: December 26, 2014, 02:19:58 AM »


PA was only "lean D"? Phil must've had a lot of influence back in 2006.
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Ebowed
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« Reply #20 on: December 26, 2014, 04:03:37 AM »


That was the best score, I remember that!  Congrats.

I also predicted the Dems would take the Senate, only I was too optimistic (I predicted a Ford win in TN, in addition to the pickups we did get).  Boy, compared to my 2014 predictions, I look like a genius here. Wink
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Orser67
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« Reply #21 on: December 26, 2014, 05:33:00 AM »

Well I'm pretty sure this thread was started because the OP wanted to gloat over the Dems' loss in 2014, but I'd say:
1994: I mean c'mon, Democrats lost the House for the first time in a couple generations
2006: This is the only other election besides '94 in which both houses flipped
2010: A huge defeat for the Democrats, as it basically stopped them from passing more leg.
2014: This victory gives Republicans a chance to hold both houses of Congress for a long, long time
1974: No chambers flipped, but the number of Democrats who won is stunning
1986: Dems won big in the Senate, but already had the House
1982: Something of a repudiation, but without any chambers flipping it's hard to see this as that big of a deal
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #22 on: December 26, 2014, 03:14:34 PM »

1994.

It had been decades since Republicans controlled the House.

2006 is a runner-up, given how Democrats ran the table with the Senate.

2014 is close, due to how many seats Republicans gained and their success in the House. There was an argument in 2012 that redistricting lowered the Republican ceiling in the House (making it easier to defend seats to maintain a majority) but the party went on to exceed their 2010 numbers.

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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« Reply #23 on: December 27, 2014, 01:42:11 AM »

Well I'm pretty sure this thread was started because the OP wanted to gloat over the Dems' loss in 2014, but I'd say:
1994: I mean c'mon, Democrats lost the House for the first time in a couple generations
2006: This is the only other election besides '94 in which both houses flipped
2010: A huge defeat for the Democrats, as it basically stopped them from passing more leg.
2014: This victory gives Republicans a chance to hold both houses of Congress for a long, long time
1974: No chambers flipped, but the number of Democrats who won is stunning
1986: Dems won big in the Senate, but already had the House
1982: Something of a repudiation, but without any chambers flipping it's hard to see this as that big of a deal

Well no it wasnt started because of that . Just becuse I think 2014 was worse then 2010 doesnt mean anything. 2006 and 1982 were also worse then 2010.
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Kraxner
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« Reply #24 on: December 27, 2014, 02:27:55 AM »

Well I'm pretty sure this thread was started because the OP wanted to gloat over the Dems' loss in 2014, but I'd say:
1994: I mean c'mon, Democrats lost the House for the first time in a couple generations
2006: This is the only other election besides '94 in which both houses flipped
2010: A huge defeat for the Democrats, as it basically stopped them from passing more leg.
2014: This victory gives Republicans a chance to hold both houses of Congress for a long, long time
1974: No chambers flipped, but the number of Democrats who won is stunning
1986: Dems won big in the Senate, but already had the House
1982: Something of a repudiation, but without any chambers flipping it's hard to see this as that big of a deal

Well no it wasnt started because of that . Just becuse I think 2014 was worse then 2010 doesnt mean anything. 2006 and 1982 were also worse then 2010.


Are you serious?

An average of 30 seats were lost by the GOP in 1982 and 2006.


While the democrats lost 62 seats in 2010!!!!
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