USA vs. People's Republic of China

[Frodo]

reading the fascinating thread on whether the United States could conquer the United Kingdom, i thought i'd start this one, this time with a (relatively) more plausible scenario:

let's say China overreaches in its attempt to intimidate Taiwan into not declaring independence, and they in turn do exactly that.  China therefore bombards the island with missiles fired from a nearby adjacent province (probably Fujjian, i think) on the mainland, and then attempts to invade it.  they are beaten off, but the United States is now drawn into the conflict. 

with the United States distracted, North Korea seizes its chance to resume the combat phase of the Korean War (which hasn't ended, BTW, since only an armistice was signed in 1953 which brought about a cease-fire -but it wasn't a peace treaty per se), and launches an invasion of South Korea.  The Chinese see their opportunity to push the United States once and for all out of East Asia, and openly support their North Korean allies. 

the United States, with great loss, manage to turn back both attempts by the Chinese on Taiwan, and the North Koreans on South Korea.  with the resumption of the draft having been declared at the beginning of the conflict in East Asia, the United States suffers from no shortage of soldiers though it has sustained great damage from the nearly simultaneous assaults by the North Koreans upon its garrison in South Korea, as well as through its efforts to protect Taiwan from a Chinese military invasion. 

with all these factors in place (as well as assuming nuclear weapons are not used by either side throughout this scenario), how would a U.S. invasion of the People's Republic of China turn out?  could it successfully invade mainland China?   

[Jake]

Two words HELL NO

[DanielX]

Without nukes, an actual invasion of mainland China would be hugely difficult to impossible. It would require World War II-style commitment to succeed. China has only a weak navy and fairly weak airforce, but it has possibly the world's most powerful army. 

More likely, the US will blockade the Chinese mainland, while sending in aid to rebel groups in China (for example, ethnic minorities like Tibetans, the Falun Gong, perhaps encourage Hong Kong independence). Also, use of air strikes to knock out Chinese military (especially nuclear) capability. The purpose being to destabilize the Communist regime.

Even more likely, the Chinese will see a little power shuffle, decide to make nice with the US, and agree to give up Korea and Taiwan. 

[Akno21]

We couldn't, and occupying it would be hell, just look at Iraq, which is about a hundred times smaller. We'd need a really big coalition, with countries with some real might. India and Russia perhaps.

[dazzleman]

No.  China has a way of swallowing invaders.

You have detailed a nightmare scenario that I hope and pray never happens.  But if it does, we would need to destroy North Korea once and for all, fortify the border of a reunited Korea with China, and grant Taiwan full independence rather than the current ambiguous status they have as a renegade province of the mainland.

Then we would have to form a system of alliances to contain China, and most likely cut off all trade with them.  Alliances with a reunited Korea, a free Taiwan, Vietnam and India might threaten them sufficiently to keep them in the box.

I don't see all this happening because I think the Chinese know the danger of choosing that path, and won't be that aggressive.  The real danger from China is probably more subtle than what is described here.

[The Duke]

As a hobby, I write screenplays.  Right now I'm working on what I hope will be my second, a chronicle of a fictitious Superbowl.  It will be called "XLI", the number 41 in Roman numerals, because I think XLI is a cool sounding series of letters to name a movie.  Raiders vs Cowboys.  Going well, if slowly, so far.

My first was a romantic comedy I wrote three years ago about a college freshman who falls in love with an older woman and tries to woo her.  To fund his romantic escapades, he joins Cutco and sells scissors door to door.  Very funny.

Before I starte my Superbowl movie, I had a movie idea called "The Next", and it was about this very kind of situation, an all out worst case scenario.  The title comes from a poem by Stephen Vincent Benet, called 1935.  I don't remember the whole thing by heart, and I can't find it on the net, but its about a man having a nightmare where he's flashing back to WWI.  He sees the skeletons of his comrades and his enemies still battling in barren mud fields endlessly.  It concludes:

"It is 18 years" I cried, "you must come no more
We know your names, we know you are the dead
Must you march forever from France and the last blind war?"

"Fool, from the next." They said.

The point of course being that there is always another war to fight.

Anyway, the script proved too large, too much stuff had to happen.  I don't have time to write a novel, so I didn't finish the story.  On page 70, the war starts, but unless I wanted a nine hour movie, I'd have to cut it down so much it wouldn't make sense.  So I stopped, and that was that.

I guess now I have a reason to come up with an ending.

[ATFFL]

Yes, we could, but at a terrible price in human life.  Once we achieved air supremacy we could, if we wanted to, bomb every building to rubble, bomb everything that moves and then move in and kill anything that looks like it might concievably think about resisting.

China will survive in some form, but the PRC would be history.  Along with much of the nation.

[bullmoose88]

I don't think a US invasion of China (without a Nuclear attack) is a realistic scenario, or a feasible plan.

Undoubtedly...I think the US nuclear arsenal would be used, because I don't think we could win a land war with the chinese quickly enough before attrition sets in.

Besides, our whole deterrence of Chinese plans in Asia is the fact that we would undoubtedly use nukes.