Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015

[politicus]

The Red-Green Alliance is holding their annual General Conference as late as June 5-7, which means that popular party spokesperson Johanne Schmidt-Nielsen can avoid the party's 7 years in office maximum and run in the election if it is announced before then (as most political observers expect it will be).

[politicus]

The Alternative on 1,2% in Voxmeter poll (first poll that includes the party)

* Social Democrats: 23,1/41

* Social Liberals: 7,8/14

* Conservatives: 5,3/9

* SPP: 6,9/12

* Liberal Alliance: 4,8/ 9

* Christian Democrats: 0,3/0

* DPP: 19,6/35

* Liberals: 22,3/40

* Red-Greens: 8,5 /15

* The Alternative: 1,2/0

* Others: 0,2/0

[Diouf]

In another poll by Greens Analyseinstitut for Børsen, the Alternative got 1.7%, so a quite good start for the party.

The current polling average by professor Søren Risbjerg Thomsen for Altinget.dk

Social Democrats 22.4% 40 seats
Social Liberals 6.7% 12
Conservatives 4.4% 8
SPP 6.4% 12
Christian Democrats 0.8% 0
DPP 20.9% 37
Liberals 23.2% 41
Liberal Alliance 5.8% 10
Red-Greens 8.5% 15
Others 1% 0

This is the highest score for others in a long time. This is mainly the Alternative which is now being prompted for in the polls.

It is also the highest average for the Liberal Alliance since the 2011 election where they received 5.0%; however, they have been polling quite steadily and the above result will only allow them to gain one seat. One possible reason is that they received a bit of legitimacy and attention as a calculation from the Ministry of Finance showed that their economic plan would create 124 000 jobs in ten years. This caused a number of TV debates between the Liberal Alliance leader and the Social Democrat minister of Finance, which the latter didn't handle all too well.

The Social Liberal average has now been falling for six straight months; from 8.3% in September to 6.7% now. One significant factor is that their leader Margrethe Vestager became EU commissioner, and her replacement Morten Østergaard does not have remotely the same respect and popularity yet. Also immigration questions have become more salient than in the 2011 election, which could have caused them to leak voters to both sides. Voters which want tougher policies might choose the Social Democrats instead, while those who think the government's new measures have been too strict could leave for the SPP or even the Red-Greens. Finally, the Alternative is lead by a former Social Liberal MP and Minister of Culture, so a significant amount of their voters are probably disillusioned social liberals. It should be remembered, however, that their 2011 result of 9.5% was their best result since 1973, and that since then their average result has been 5.7%, so historically this result would not be a disaster.

The polling average predicts that the Conservatives will only get 8 seats, like in the 2011 election. This means that it is highly questionable whether their new leader Søren Pape Poulsen will actually get a seat. In 2011 the party did not win a seat in Vestjylland where he is running, and although he can probably improve the party's fortunes in some areas of the multimember constituency as the former mayor of Viborg, it is by no means certain that this will be enough to steal a Conservative seat from one of the other constituencies. The most vulnerable seats, according to Risbjerg Thomsen, are the seats in Nordsjælland and Fyn.

[politicus]

In another poll by Greens Analyseinstitut for Børsen, the Alternative got 1.7%, so a quite good start for the party.

Surprising. Much will depend whether they can quickly get above 2% and stay above in a couple of polls, thus killing the vote wasting narrative.

Also of course interesting which parties their voters come from. My guess would be around 50% dissatisfied Radikale left wingers, around 15% non-socialist Red Greens of the "generic idealist" variety and the last third spread over a wider range of parties than one would expect and possibly also a lot of first time voters + non-voters.

I still doubt they are all left wing voters - especially not SPP voters.

I also remain sceptical as to whether they remain viable once the other parties sink their teeth into their program and attack their fluffy ideas.

[politicus]

I think you guys underestimate the disillusionment that is currently felt by many Radikale and SF voters and among the non-socialist segment of leftist voters in general. Radikale and SF has lost much of their former idealistic "glow" with their participation in government. Radikale has been unambitious on environmental and energy policy, has had to compromise heavily on matters of immigration (and other "values-issues" and proven to be more "rightwing" in economic policy than many of their voters would prefer while SF is still tainted by the disastrous exit from government and the factional fighting that occurred in that period. In contrast "Alternativet" has a fresh slate and is primarily driven by grassroots members. Unlike the Feminist Initiative which had no ballot access and no right to participate in the official party leaders debates when they started out, Alternativet has both ballot access  and has tons of legitimacy in the eyes of the voters solely by their success in getting on the ballots will get to participate in debates. Uffe Elbæk could potentially prove to be a huge success in the debates and from there only the sky is the limit.

Well, Nortexius, in light of the first polls you seem to be right about part of your very rosy prediction. I would agree in the non-crossed out with the bolded part added.

[Nortexius]

Well, Nortexius, in light of the first polls you seem to be right about part of your very rosy prediction. I would agree in the non-crossed out with the bolded part added.

Well, it seems my theories have been partially redeemed but i think you're overestimating SFs comeback and underestimating the results the government breakup had on the image of SF in the eyes of the average voter. Ever since SF joined the government, their anti-establishment credentials and idealistic zeal is basically zero. Pia Ohlsen Dyhr is more of a government technocrat than an anti-capitalist crusader for the working class even when she's outside government. SF may in name be a socialist and green party but today it's more of a clientelist party with no ideology catering to female public sector workers and students. Alternativet has everything that SF (and the Radikale) currently is missing most: Idealism, anti-establishment ideas they don't have to take responsibility for, an interesting and unique leader, no history of shady compromises and the ability to make their voters project whatever they want onto the party. 1,9-2,5% in the upcoming election is not that farfetched the way i see it.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Tbf seeing as Denmark is the first country in the world to have a 100% renewable (in all forms of energy) target it must be hard to be unambituous in terms of environmental issues. Is any party in Denmark against the 100% target btw?


In a somewhat OT request for the Danes here, do you feel the district heating that powers your country is effective? I was at a lecture where the guy was raving about it, I wanted to hear directly how it effects citizens.

[politicus]

Well, Nortexius, in light of the first polls you seem to be right about part of your very rosy prediction. I would agree in the non-crossed out with the bolded part added.

Well, it seems my theories have been partially redeemed but i think you're overestimating SFs comeback and underestimating the results the government breakup had on the image of SF in the eyes of the average voter. Ever since SF joined the government, their anti-establishment credentials and idealistic zeal is basically zero. Pia Ohlsen Dyhr is more of a government technocrat than an anti-capitalist crusader for the working class even when she's outside government. SF may in name be a socialist and green party but today it's more of a clientelist party with no ideology catering to female public sector workers and students. Alternativet has everything that SF (and the Radikale) currently is missing most: Idealism, anti-establishment ideas they don't have to take responsibility for, an interesting and unique leader, no history of shady compromises and the ability to make their voters project whatever they want onto the party. 1,9-2,5% in the upcoming election is not that farfetched the way i see it.

Your ideas about SF are quite strange to a Dane. What do you base them on? No one expects an SF chairman to be "an anti-capitalist crusader for the working class". Their core supporters would be shocked if Olsen Dyhr started doing that. It is a reformist middle class party. They gave up actual socialism around 1990. Socialism matters to most of the party as an identity marker and as a wish to pursue left social democratic policies rather than the Third Way-ish quasi neo-liberal stuff SD is pursuing these day.

The image of the average voter is irrelevant to SF, since the average voter does not vote on them anyway. It is a niche party that has regained most of their core support, which is all that matters right now.

Also,Uffe Elbæk is not "interesting and unique". He is a (highly successful) project maker from the creative class (not a popular group in Denmark) using public money to finance various ideas and scoring the profit and he has no charisma (which is a much larger handicap for a politician in Denmark than in Sweden). All succesful party creators in the post war era has had personal charisma - either one charismatic leader or a team including a person with charisma.

[politicus]

Tbf seeing as Denmark is the first country in the world to have a 100% renewable (in all forms of energy) target it must be hard to be unambituous in terms of environmental issues. Is any party in Denmark against the 100% target btw?

Setting targets is easy - especially as far out as 2050. Trying to reach them is harder.

The government could have made a very ambitious energy plan with the Red Greens, but chose a less ambitious one after a compromise with the centre-right in order to achieve stability in the field, this disappointed some greenies.

Liberal Alliance was the only party that was not part of the deal. So officially everybody else supports the 100% target.

[ingemann]

On the topic of a right wing alternative to DPP and Islamophobia in general there was a YouGov poll conducted in late January on acceptable maximum Muslim population. It is poorly worded, but the result is still interesting and would likely be more negative post-shootings. It should also be noted that the poll does not include anyone 75+ (obviously not a pro-multiculti segment) and that "religion is a private matter" is a 97%+ view in Denmark, so including that in the no-option likely increases that number.

"How large a share of the Danish population should Muslims in your opinion maximally constitute now and in the future?"

0%: 7%
1-5%: 24%
6-10%: 14%
11-20%: 4%
20-30%: 1%
"I can and will not answer that because religion is a private matter": 42%
Dunno: 8%

There are 4,1% Muslims in Denmark with a high share of children/youth and relatively high fertility, so anything below 7-8% would de facto require repatriations.

Not necessary we have a relative high immigration rate and Muslims make up a relative little part of new arrivals. At the same time the birth rate among Muslims born in Denmark is more or less the same as native Danes (2012: 1,8-1,9). As for first generation Turks are just under replacement rate (2012: 2,0), while Pakistanians are somewhat higher and Somalians are the only group with over 3 children per woman. At the same time outmarriage usual result in the childrens being MINOs.

Of course all this means little because people are not really able to connect percents to population sizes. I knew a Muslims who thoughts Muslims in Denmark was 10-20% of the population, simply because looked around and that was what he saw. Dutch and Tamils are two rather large immigration groups, the size of the Somali community in Denmark, but because they mostly live in Jutland, I for example is rarely aware of them.

So what these people really say here, is that they accept Muslims live in Denmark, but they don't want them to be much bigger group than they are now.

[ingemann]

In a somewhat OT request for the Danes here, do you feel the district heating that powers your country is effective? I was at a lecture where the guy was raving about it, I wanted to hear directly how it effects citizens.

Mostly it doesn't effect people daily life, as it doesn't bother people, outside when the road is digged up. It's often used as a way to get rid of surplus heat, especially as we burn gabbage, through we have begun to integrate waste heat from the industry in the system. They're talking about with the new Apple centre near Viborg (9th largest municipality in Denmark), to use the local district heating as a cooling system for the Apple centre, the only problem is that Viborg is not large enough for the amount of heat it will produce, so they're also talking about putting Silkeborgs (11th largest municipality) district heating on the system too even through it lies 32 kilometer south of Viborg.

As a way to get rid of waste heat it have been a success for decades, but from what I can see with the improvement in insulation (lessering the heat loss under transport), it can today also pay to simply produce the heat and not just use waste heat (even if that's preferable).

It make mostly sense in relative densely populated areas, but even in semi-urban areas, it make a lot of sense and many Danish villages have a districts heating (through those usual don't use waste heat).

[politicus]

Ritzau poll about Alternativet

7,3% of voters are considering voting for them (notice that 13% consider voting for a party to the right of DPP - and 30% once considered voting for New Alliance. Danish voters are pretty cavalier about what they "consider")

81% of those with a previous party choice come from Red Bloc and 19% from Blue Bloc

No specification, but they do give share of voters that consider voting Alternativet for each party:

* Red Greens: 14 percent (second largest contributor with about 1%)

* SPP: 12,5 percent (fourth largest with about 0,75%)

* Radikale: 11 percent (third largest with about 0,85%)

* Social Democrats: 10 percent (making SD the biggest contributor with about 2,3% of the potential Alternativet voters)

* Conservatives: 6 percent (about 0,3%)

* Liberal Alliance: 5 percent (about 0,3%)

* DPP: 2 percent (about 0,4%)

* Liberals: 0,6 percent (about 0,1%)

So 1,1% Centre-right, 4,9% centre-left, 1,3% from new voters or non-voters. Rough estimates that do not add up perfectly of course, would be nice to see the actual numbers, but almost a third from SD is interesting.

For those that do not follow Danish politics closely: Conservatives are traditionally a lot greener than Liberals and DPP, so not surprising there is a bigger potential, especially with the party leader going anti-green. Liberal Alliance has a fair share of ex-Radikale which explain their numbers. Perhaps the entrepreneur/green business message also appeal to some from the two  "business" parties.

[politicus]

So what these people really say here, is that they accept Muslims live in Denmark, but they don't want them to be much bigger group than they are now.

There is a steady increase in the Muslim population over time and it is unlikely to stabilize anytime soon. Growing refugee pressure will add to this.

The 7% saying zero percent are obviously Islamophobic and most likely consider DPP too soft.

I think it is clear that people saying 1-5% have a negative attitude towards Muslims. In my experience most Danes think that the Muslim population is around 10%, so this equals support for repatriations. This is mostly based on young people, but older folks are unlikely to think the number is lower.
(it would be interesting to see a poll of how many Muslims the average Dane thinks there are)

This is already 31% with a negative view, which is after all a substantial share of the population.

The 14% saying 6-10% are mostly "immigration stop" people.

You then got 5% that can accept some increase and 42%, who either feel it is racist to set a quota for a particular group or belong to the relatively few that are pro free immigration (part of those would be "open borders, but closed coffers" right wingers).

And again: Given the lack of olds and the non-neutral phrasing of the "no limit" option those numbers are bound to be on the low side.

[ingemann]

So what these people really say here, is that they accept Muslims live in Denmark, but they don't want them to be much bigger group than they are now.

There is a steady increase in the Muslim population over time and it is unlikely to stabilize anytime soon. Growing refugee pressure will add to this.

Most refugees we receive are quota refugees and we more or less take no Muslims from that category today. If the Syrian refuge seekers follow traditional pattern, we will see between 30-40 000 Syrian refugees stay in Denmark when the conflict ends. Eritrerians are a mix of Christians and Muslims, but lean toward Christian majority. Chechen is the last significant refugee group. But they don't have a significant sized population. We are talking a few thousands at most.

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Yes completely agree.

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We're both from the greater Copenhagen area, I'm not sure the population of the provincial towns and rural areas would guess 10% (which is close to the percent of Muslims in Copenhagen).

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Yes it could be a very interesting poll, especially if we could see regional and ethnic difference.

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Not really surprising, I have a social liberal friend (not really the most xenophobic group) who describe his view of Muslims this way. He likes a lot of individual Muslims, but if you asked whether he liked Muslims as a group, he would say "not really". Muslims are for a lot of Danes a irritation moment, not enough that they want to hurt them, discriminate against them, repatriate them or vote for DPP. But they don't like them as group.

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Again I'm not sure there's a major difference between this group and the former.

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No these people can accept a very large increase.

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.

Yes agree

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Likely, plus I don't expect anyone outside some Muslims (and not even all of them) would say that we need above 30% Muslims in Denmark.

[politicus]

Former Liberal MEP, serial entrepreneur (and serial bankrupter) and financial speculator Klaus Riskær Petersen (59) has announced he will try to get a place on Alternativets candidate list. Riskær is convicted for various forms of economic crimes, but has managed several comebacks in the business world. Now it looks like he will attempt a political comeback as well.

Entrepreneurship is one of the three core areas for Alternativet, and he definitely has some experience in that field. While obviously not a candidate Elbæk & Co wants on their list, but it can be difficult to block him given the small m$embership, unlimited membership democracy and "anyone can join" rules. It will be decided on March 17, whether he gets on the candidate list in Copenhagen.

Riskær was always a maverick and is the son of an artist, hippie and famous resistance fighter, so he may be culturally closer to Alternativet, than one would expect.

The official reason for the "no thanks" from the party leadership is that they do not want famous people on their list, since that wil distract from their message. Then again, Riskær is just as infamous as he is famous.

[rosin]

Former Liberal MEP, serial entrepreneur (and serial bankrupter) and financial speculator Klaus Riskær Petersen (59) has announced he will try to get a place on Alternativets candidate list. Riskær is convicted for various forms of economic crimes, but has managed several comebacks in the business world. Now it looks like he will attempt a political comeback as well.

Wow, it would be an absolute disaster for Alternativet, if he came on the ballots. I can't say if he has changed his life, but in the eyes of the great public, Riskjær (with the nickname Risikokær = risk loving) is still the exponent of untamed capitalism (and a few dirty tricks, if that gives money). Not the type of candidate Alternativet needs.

[ingemann]

Former Liberal MEP, serial entrepreneur (and serial bankrupter) and financial speculator Klaus Riskær Petersen (59) has announced he will try to get a place on Alternativets candidate list. Riskær is convicted for various forms of economic crimes, but has managed several comebacks in the business world. Now it looks like he will attempt a political comeback as well.

Wow, it would be an absolute disaster for Alternativet, if he came on the ballots. I can't say if he has changed his life, but in the eyes of the great public, Riskjær (with the nickname Risikokær = risk loving) is still the exponent of untamed capitalism (and a few dirty tricks, if that gives money). Not the type of candidate Alternativet needs.

I don't think he would be a disaster for Alternativet, at least not in their attempt to be elected. Riskær is well known, have his fans and political he's not a weak card, he has visions, he can put them in political and economical context, and he's even able to describe them in a greater ideological-historical context.

The big threat with in the short term, is if he start a internal war in the new party, but this can be avoided if they decides to cooperate with him.

Of course if Alternativet is elected, Riskær is a disaster, he lack any kind of impulse control and he's a primadonna. Alternativet risk becoming a new centre-left version of the Progress Party.

[Diouf]

The Alternative is above the threshold for the first time in a poll by YouGov for MetroExpress. They get 2.2%. YouGov does generally show higher results for insurgents and tend to show new trends more drastically than other parties. In the same poll, the Liberal Alliance is at 7.1% and DPP at 22.6% which is some the highest figures those parties have polled.

I lean towards seeing Riskær as a liability for the Alternative should he be chosen as a candidate (which I don't think he will be). He can certainly pick up some new votes; probably among some of the Liberal Alliance or Conservative voters, who are considering voting for them. But I think he will damage their base and their potential left-wing voters, whom are to get them into parliament, way too much. His reputation of putting profit above everything, even the law, does not harmonize with the party at all. One of their main points is a sustainable society which is less focused on superficial consumption. Also they have been quite critical of the banking and financial sectors and propose quite wideranging reforms.
Riskær has said that the Alternative is too much about "peace and love" and that he can provide them with a much needed "twist of business". I think their chances of passing the threshold is far higher with "peace and love" than with Riskær's "twist of business".

[Jens]

Things seem to be getting interesting with entry of this  Riskær guy lol.

They have just kicked him out of the party again...

[politicus]

DPP down to 17%+ in a new Voxmeter poll. Lowest level in a long time. Voxmeter had them on 18.7 a week ago and has recently been polling DPP below other pollsters.

The Alternative just below the threshold. Red Bloc on 48.2% incl. The Alternative against 51.0% to Blue Bloc. Getting closer.

A    Socialdemokraterne    24.3    44
B    Radikale Venstre    7.1    13
C    Konservative Folkeparti 4.6   8
F    Socialistisk Folkeparti    6.6    12
I    Liberal Alliance            5.4    10
K    Kristendemokraterne    0.5    0
O    Dansk Folkeparti    17.6    31
V    Venstre                    23.4    42
Ø    Enhedslisten             8.4    15
Å    Alternativet             1.8    0
        Others                       0.3   0

http://meningsmalinger.dk/

[Tender Branson]

Question for the Danish posters:

How conservative is she really ? And is she actually running on an electable list spot ?



Nikita Klæstrup

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Lol tender

[ingemann]

Question for the Danish posters:

How conservative is she really ? And is she actually running on an electable list spot

Nikita Klæstrup

She's the leader of Conservative Youth on Lolland-Falster (think of it as a left wing version of Vorpommern).

[Tender Branson]

Question for the Danish posters:

How conservative is she really ? And is she actually running on an electable list spot

Nikita Klæstrup

She's the leader of Conservative Youth on Lolland-Falster (think of it as a left wing version of Vorpommern).

Thanks.

But is she running in the upcoming Parliamentary Election too, or is she just a local leader ?

[ingemann]

Question for the Danish posters:

How conservative is she really ? And is she actually running on an electable list spot

Nikita Klæstrup

She's the leader of Conservative Youth on Lolland-Falster (think of it as a left wing version of Vorpommern).

Thanks.

But is she running in the upcoming Parliamentary Election too, or is she just a local leader ?

She ran in one of the two municipalities last election, I couldn't find much information about her, so if she does, she hides it well. But honestly as around 20 year old conservative youth politician for a party in crisis, she may be on a list somewhere, but she's not going to be elected.