CA-Sen: California Quake

[RogueBeaver]

Looks like Boxer's retiring.

[Flake]

Good news!

[SPC]

A potential silver lining in case the Republican primary ends up being long and drawn-out. Hopefully it ends up being a repeat of the Controller race, with a slight difference of course.

[Lief 🗽]

Not surprising. Looking forward to Senator Harris!

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

If we end up with a CA-31 2012 situation here then I will probably blow a gasket.

[Vega]

Good to hear. I appreciate her service, but it's time for a change.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Looking forward to Senator Harris!

[Vega]

Not surprising. Looking forward to Senator Harris Newsom!

[free my dawg]

Godspeed, Kamala.

[KCDem]

As long as it's not Newsom, we should be fine.

[Maxwell]

Hope we get a Faulconer v. Nunes situation, with Faulconer crushing Nunes.

[KCDem]

Hope we get a Faulconer v. Nunes situation, with Faulconer crushing Nunes.

Democrats will clear the field for 1-2 candidates. No big-name Republicans will join the suicide mission.

[Free Bird]

Get to work, Eric

[IceSpear]

Looking forward to Senator Harris!

[publicunofficial]

Once Boxer announces her retirement, 2016 is officially under way.


Daily Kos gives a rundown of potential candidates:

-Attorney General Kamala Harris (D)
-Lt. Governor Gavin Newsom (D)
-Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti (D)
-Philanthropist Tom Steyer (D)
-Former LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D)
-Rep. Jackie Speier (D)
-Secretary of State-Elect Alex Padilla (D)
-Treasurer-Elect John Chiang (D)
-Rep. Xavier Becerra (D)
-Insurance Commissioner Dave Jones (D)
-Ex-Rep. Jane Harman (D)
-Former Controller Steve Westley (D)
-San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer (R)



Expect a lot of people to pass on this, then be brought up again when Feinstein and Brown retire.

[Maxwell]

I would be surprised if Tom Steyer actually ran, after the poor 2014 he had.

[ElectionsGuy]

If we end up with a CA-31 2012 situation here then I will probably blow a gasket.

We're talking about a statewide California race here. Republicans can't win.

[Maxwell]

If we end up with a CA-31 2012 situation here then I will probably blow a gasket.

We're talking about a statewide California race here. Republicans can't win.

Sure, but if enough big name Democrats siphon votes from eachother, two Republicans could eek out of the primary.

[IceSpear]

If we end up with a CA-31 2012 situation here then I will probably blow a gasket.

We're talking about a statewide California race here. Republicans can't win.

Sure, but if enough big name Democrats siphon votes from eachother, two Republicans could eek out of the primary.

You'd need only two Republicans that are approximately equal in candidate strength so they can split the Republican vote almost evenly, along with a Democratic clown car without the field being winnowed down at all. Seems very unlikely in a race so high profile and important.

[Maxwell]

If we end up with a CA-31 2012 situation here then I will probably blow a gasket.

We're talking about a statewide California race here. Republicans can't win.

Sure, but if enough big name Democrats siphon votes from eachother, two Republicans could eek out of the primary.

You'd need only two Republicans that are approximately equal in candidate strength so they can split the Republican vote almost evenly, along with a Democratic clown car without the field being winnowed down at all. Seems very unlikely in a race so high profile and important.

I'm not commenting on it's likelihood. It's extremely unlikely. Not impossible though, and would be hilarious. And for the record, I would be just as amused if Alabama had this system and two black Democrats made it out of the top two.

[ElectionsGuy]

If we end up with a CA-31 2012 situation here then I will probably blow a gasket.

We're talking about a statewide California race here. Republicans can't win.

Sure, but if enough big name Democrats siphon votes from eachother, two Republicans could eek out of the primary.

Won't happen, Republicans usually get around 40% of the vote in California. For that situation to occur, two Republicans (and only two) would both have to get around 20%, and there would have to be 4+ Democrats who split the vote evenly.

It would be hilarious if that would happen, though.

[Vosem]

Even 2 pretty obscure Republicans, if they split the vote in the correct way, could become Senators; for this, there needs to be at least 3 reasonably prominent Democrats, though, and probably 4 (though "reasonably prominent" means over 5%), and Republicans need to hold the statewide vote to about 54-46 max margin for the Democrats, which is doable but not guaranteed; with that, we could get a split like 23R-23R-22D-22D-10D. It's doubtful but it definitely shouldn't be ruled out, and there's a lot of Democrats in California who've been waiting decades for a Senate opening. The more pertinent issue for Republicans, I think, is ensuring there're two -- but only two -- candidates.

[Skill and Chance]

I doubt it will be 2016-SEN, but eventually top 2 will create an R vs. R statewide race.  And I think that will lead to its repeal shortly thereafter.

[Holmes]

I doubt it will be 2016-SEN, but eventually top 2 will create an R vs. R statewide race.  And I think that will lead to its repeal shortly thereafter.

That would be the worst case scenario for California.

[Suburbia]

Imagine a Kamala Harris vs. Carly Fiorina Senate race. I would rate that Lean D.