LA and NC 2016 Congressional Races

[Miles]

Well, here we go!

Republicans: Congratulations! You ran the table this past cycle.

Democrats: Congratulations! Things can pretty much only get better.


Despite signals to the contrary over the past years, it appears Burr is gearing up to run again.

LA will be really linked with the Governor's much. At the moment, its more likely than not that the Republican running in 2016 won't be Vitter.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

What is the buzz for Vitter's successor should he win? Scalise's elevation to the whip post, alone, does not rule him out unless he has publicly stated that is where he would prefer to remain.

[Miles]

My guess would be Fleming. Vitter had to promise him something so that he wouldn't run for Landrieu's seat (against Cassidy) this year.

[RogueBeaver]

Fleming said he's interested in Vitter's seat.

[RogueBeaver]

Burr leads Cowell and Foxx 44/38, Hagan 46/43.

[Miles]

See, I called it on Fleming!

Don't retiring/outgoing Senators usually get at least some approval bump on their way out? Hagan's still at 39/52

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Thom Tillis's 37/48 favorability is just evidence that his election only happened due to 2014 having even lower turnout than 2010.

[IceSpear]

Burr leads Cowell and Foxx 44/38, Hagan 46/43.

So much for the "Burr would demolish Hagan easily" narrative. This race will clearly be very competitive.

[moderatevoter]

North Carolina is the state with the most consistently competitive Senate races. Unless 2016 turns out to be a Republican wave year, of course its Senate race will be competitive. The state is so polarized that both parties could nominate someone random and get around 45% of the vote. Unless 2016 is 2008 redux, I do think Burr would beat Hagan. Not by the nearly thirteen points he won by in 2010, but he'd win. Hagan's approvals are atrocious. Had the NC GOP nominated Generic eRic instead of Thom Tillis, Hagan would have lost by 5-6% as opposed to around 2%.

[ElectionsGuy]

Thom Tillis's 37/48 favorability is just evidence that his election only happened due to 2014 having even lower turnout than 2010.

Not in North Carolina. Hagan and Obama had double digit disapprovals.

[Miles]

Thom Tillis's 37/48 favorability is just evidence that his election only happened due to 2014 having even lower turnout than 2010.

Not in North Carolina. Hagan and Obama had double digit disapprovals.

In fairness, it was up just very slightly (44.4% vs 43.8%).

Before the election, PPP had Hagan at only -8. Its odd you see a Senator's number get worse after a bitter election than going into it.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Burr leads Cowell and Foxx 44/38, Hagan 46/43.

So much for the "Burr would demolish Hagan easily" narrative. This race will clearly be very competitive.

The narrative is built on his past history of crushing his opponents late in the campaign season. The numbers with Marshall were rather close for much of the season and he trailed Bowles. I don't think he will wait quite that long to take action, probably move to define the race in the mid to late Spring or early summer period instead. Either way, a poll showing a close race almost two years out isn't sufficient to end that narrative.

It will be competative in the beginning, even if he does eventually demolish her. Whatever the margin, I am fairly certain Burr wins unless Hillary wins the state by an at least somewhat decent single digit margin or greater.

[IceSpear]

Burr leads Cowell and Foxx 44/38, Hagan 46/43.

So much for the "Burr would demolish Hagan easily" narrative. This race will clearly be very competitive.

The narrative is built on his past history of crushing his opponents late in the campaign season. The numbers with Marshall were rather close for much of the season and he trailed Bowles. I don't think he will wait quite that long to take action, probably move to define the race in the mid to late Spring or early summer period instead. Either way, a poll showing a close race almost two years out isn't sufficient to end that narrative.

It will be competative in the beginning, even if he does eventually demolish her. Whatever the margin, I am fairly certain Burr wins unless Hillary wins the state by an at least somewhat decent single digit margin or greater.

2004 and 2010 were also strong years for Republicans in general.

[RogueBeaver]

NC-Sen: Dems mention McIntyre or ex St. Sen. Cal Cunningham, plus Hagan, Cowell and Foxx.

[windjammer]

McIntyre? He would never be able to win the democratic primary.

[windjammer]

And why not Heath Schuler?

[Miles]

And why not Heath Schuler?

Because he became a lobbyist after pledging he wouldn't. The attack ad writes itself.

[Maxwell]

Cowell would be a better candidate statewide than McIntyre, plus I really don't think McIntyre will run unless he thinks he's got it in the bag.

[IceSpear]

No thanks to McIntyre. Wasn't he the most right wing Democrat in the entire House? NC can do better.

[Miles]

^ There's been suggestions on RRH about McIntyre switching parties and running statewide as a Republican. I don't think it happens, but its an interesting idea.

I think if he switched parties, he would have almost certainly done it before redistricting.

[HillaryLandslide2016]

Hillary will probably cost Burr his seat. And before you guys call me a troll again: Hillary COULD cost Burr his seat. Does that sound better to you?

[smoltchanov]

No thanks to McIntyre. Wasn't he the most right wing Democrat in the entire House? NC can do better.

He was one one of the most conservative Democrats in the House, yes. But in present days realities that means "slightly right of center" and "more liberal then any Republican". He ideally suited his district, and he was the only one who was able to hold it for Democrats for so long (look at 2014 results without him in the district). And North Carolina is NOT a very liberal state - in fact a median NC voter will be not far different from him.

[IceSpear]

No thanks to McIntyre. Wasn't he the most right wing Democrat in the entire House? NC can do better.

He was one one of the most conservative Democrats in the House, yes. But in present days realities that means "slightly right of center" and "more liberal then any Republican". He ideally suited his district, and he was the only one who was able to hold it for Democrats for so long (look at 2014 results without him in the district). And North Carolina is NOT a very liberal state - in fact a median NC voter will be not far different from him.

Hagan was far more liberal than he was, and she won in 2008, and would've won in 2014 if the wave wasn't so huge. Obama also won in 2008. McIntyre would be a good candidate for South Carolina, maybe.

[free my dawg]

No thanks to McIntyre. Wasn't he the most right wing Democrat in the entire House? NC can do better.

He was one one of the most conservative Democrats in the House, yes. But in present days realities that means "slightly right of center" and "more liberal then any Republican". He ideally suited his district, and he was the only one who was able to hold it for Democrats for so long (look at 2014 results without him in the district). And North Carolina is NOT a very liberal state - in fact a median NC voter will be not far different from him.

Hagan was far more liberal than he was, and she won in 2008, and would've won in 2014 if the wave wasn't so huge. Obama also won in 2008. McIntyre would be a good candidate for South Carolina, maybe.

Hagan was also facing a much weaker, less moderate challenger and was the incumbent.

[smoltchanov]

No thanks to McIntyre. Wasn't he the most right wing Democrat in the entire House? NC can do better.

He was one one of the most conservative Democrats in the House, yes. But in present days realities that means "slightly right of center" and "more liberal then any Republican". He ideally suited his district, and he was the only one who was able to hold it for Democrats for so long (look at 2014 results without him in the district). And North Carolina is NOT a very liberal state - in fact a median NC voter will be not far different from him.

Hagan was far more liberal than he was, and she won in 2008, and would've won in 2014 if the wave wasn't so huge. Obama also won in 2008. McIntyre would be a good candidate for South Carolina, maybe.

Forget about Obama. He was a "fashion" in 2008, that's why he won then. His loss in the state in 2012 has shown that even at highest possible minoruty turnout he was no more popular. And Hagan was more liberal then McIntyre, but not by so much. On social ussues - substantially, on economy - not by much. After all - Hagan lost to such flawed candidate as Tillis in 2014: yes, she gave campaign all she had, but even against him that wasn't enough.. And it was a "purple" North Carolina, not Louisiana or Arkansas.

P.S. IMHO - it's a big error to think that each North Carolina Democrat thinks and votes as people in Research Triangle....