florida

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Under my impression he was seen as quite electable, only he entered the race too late once all the big players had already cast in their hats, managed his campaign poorly, and his antiwar thunder was stolen by Dean.

About entering the race late, you're probably confusing him with Clark. Graham and Clark were both running for about a day. Graham had been running since early 2003.

[Alcon]

Kerry should have given up on Florida and gone nuts over OH, PA, WV. He didn't. He lost the election. Florida is a red herring for Democrats.

I'm afraid that West Virginia was never destined to vote for John Kerry. He just wasn't a good candidate in that state, and I don't believe any image doctoring whatsoever would have swung that state 16 points.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm afraid that West Virginia was never destined to vote for John Kerry. He just wasn't a good candidate in that state, and I don't believe any image doctoring whatsoever would have swung that state 16 points.

While he was far from an ideal candidate in WV, it's worth pointing out that until he pulled out in the pointless, messy and " you" way that he did he was consistantly polling higher in West Virginia that the U.S as a whole.

IMO all he needed to do to win the state was to show his face occasionally (while talking about how bad the economy in the state is) show Edwards' face a lot more (he did a good job stopping Kerry support in the Steubenville area from collapsing and the issues there are similer to over the river) co-operate with the Party machine and the unions... and hammer Bush over proposals to relax safety regulations in mines.

None of those things would have been hard and all would have been easy if he hadn't wasted his time in Florida.

I should also point out that being socially liberal isn't always a big handicap in West Virginia; it's never really hurt Rockefeller and didn't stop Wise from beating Underwood in 2000.

[jacob_101]

Actually Bush gained a lot more of the black vote in south Florida then is widely reported. I have gotten a lot of information on such matters from the Florida GOP.

Kerry still won FL blacks 86-13 and FL jews 80-20.

The "Black vote" is still slightly above the national average.  What is the improvement in both groups over 2000.

I don't know about the Jewish vote, but support among blacks went from 7% to 13% according to the exit polls.

[WalterMitty]

al, kerry lost wv by 13 points.  sure, it would have been closer if kerry had not pulled out.  but do you really think he had a cahnce?  if he had not pulled out, he porobably would have still lost by 8-10.

bush only lost california by 10 points.  would you argue that he would have been competitive in that state had he made a run at it?

[phk]

West Virginia is far more volatile than California.

[minionofmidas]

...and California is much larger and more diverse...you'd have to please lots more different groups - without pissing off others at the same time.
Given that Bus won by 13 points, no, I don't think Kerry could have won it. Unless the Republicans too would have run a radically different campaign, ie: no high fundie turnout. THat would have won it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Kerry campaign in WV ed up bigtime. If Kerry had done this:

"all he needed to do to win the state was to show his face occasionally (while talking about how bad the economy in the state is) show Edwards' face a lot more (he did a good job stopping Kerry support in the Steubenville area from collapsing and the issues there are similer to over the river) co-operate with the Party machine and the unions... and hammer Bush over proposals to relax safety regulations in mines."

He'd have won the state. The lessons for future candidates are pretty clear.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The Kerry campaign in WV f**cked up bigtime. If Kerry had done this:

"all he needed to do to win the state was to show his face occasionally (while talking about how bad the economy in the state is) show Edwards' face a lot more (he did a good job stopping Kerry support in the Steubenville area from collapsing and the issues there are similer to over the river) co-operate with the Party machine and the unions... and hammer Bush over proposals to relax safety regulations in mines."

He'd have won the state. The lessons for future candidates are pretty clear.

Seeing as he lost by 13 points, I don't think it mattered.  He only lost Missouri by 7 and Virginia by 8 despite ignoring those even more than WV.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Now I know what banging my head into a brick wall feels like...

[Gustaf]

Considering that Clinton won it by 15 points in 1996, well above his national average, it does seem to bump around a bit. Democrat margin compared to national average in WV:

2004: -11
2000: -7
1996: +6
1992: +7
1988: +13
1984: +7
1980: +15
1976: +15

I think that a different style of campaigning would do a big difference with a state of WV. But I doubt whether Kerry could have pulled it off and whether any Democrat is really interested.

[Gustaf]

This is the country divide of 1996 with Red=bigger Clinton margin than nationally and blue the opposite.



Realistically, states like Arkansas, Lousiana and West Virginia could still be swayed if another Clinton emerged.

[The Vorlon]

2.  When in doubt (as everything above seems to indicate) trust Mason-Dixon.

Yup

A few more factors on Florida.

1) Large Military population stationed overseas.  Florida has no state income tax, so for taxation (and voting) purposes a large number of overseas military "live" in Florida. - have to factor this in

2)  Snowbirds - Where do these seniors "live" for voting purposes..? In Florida, or some other place. - better sort it out in your screen...

3) Felons can't vote

4) Very high percentage of population is non citizen, hence (officially)
can't vote.

5) Heavy Hispanic/Cuban population - Do you have spanish speaking operators?

When in doubt.. trust the Mason-Dixon (I think I heard that somewhere before...?)

[J. J.]

I'm going to say two things:

1.  George W. Bush ran the best campaign since Clinton's 1992 campaign; I would argue that, in terms of campaigning, it was possibly better managed and presented than Reagan's in 1984.

2.  Kerry ran one of the worst campaigns since Dukakis in 1988, under the same terms.  It possibly was worse than that, sink to the McGovern levels of 1972.

That said, Bush needed to run a campaign that well to win.  The war was never widely popular, intelligence was bad on WMD's, and the economy was strong, but not roaring, as it was in 1984 and 1996.

Kerry made a huge mistake in investing in FL and clearly by October, he should have pulled out.  OH was the key and by blasting away in the in western PA (Pittsburgh media)and hitting Steubenville, he would have made some progress in WV. 

Bassically, Kerry lost the election in the upper Ohio River valley and came close to losing PA in the process.  There were a few people who put that forward at the time, but largely because the Democrats were so obsessed with FL, they ignored the obvious.  That goes from the top of the ticket all the way down to the posters on the board.  This was Kerry's last chance at victory, and he blew it!

[Beet]

I'm going to say two things:

1.  George W. Bush ran the best campaign since Clinton's 1992 campaign; I would argue that, in terms of campaigning, it was possibly better managed and presented than Reagan's in 1984.

2.  Kerry ran one of the worst campaigns since Dukakis in 1988, under the same terms.  It possibly was worse than that, sink to the McGovern levels of 1972.

That said, Bush needed to run a campaign that well to win.  The war was never widely popular, intelligence was bad on WMD's, and the economy was strong, but not roaring, as it was in 1984 and 1996.

Kerry made a huge mistake in investing in FL and clearly by October, he should have pulled out.  OH was the key and by blasting away in the in western PA (Pittsburgh media)and hitting Steubenville, he would have made some progress in WV. 

Bassically, Kerry lost the election in the upper Ohio River valley and came close to losing PA in the process.  There were a few people who put that forward at the time, but largely because the Democrats were so obsessed with FL, they ignored the obvious.  That goes from the top of the ticket all the way down to the posters on the board.  This was Kerry's last chance at victory, and he blew it!

Hindsight is 20 / 20!

[J. J.]

Hindsight is 20 / 20!

Well, but this one in the prophetic column then:

Would it be better for Kerry to abandon FL?

The polls in FL do not show any big Kerry lead and never did; more recently they TEND to show a Bush victory there.  If Kerry's numbers don't improve, would be better for Kerry NOT to make a great effort there and target Midwestern states, PA (and WV), NJ, and those weak areas in New Englland (NH, ME)?

This is straight strategic question.

Note the date.  I go on the thread to mention WI, MN, PA, NH, ME (which Kerry took), OH, IA, and WV.

Not thate except for MN (and my totally wrong NJ), these were all close states which ended up being closer than FL, IIRC.

[Sam Spade]

Hindsight is 20 / 20!

Well, but this one in the prophetic column then:

Would it be better for Kerry to abandon FL?

The polls in FL do not show any big Kerry lead and never did; more recently they TEND to show a Bush victory there.  If Kerry's numbers don't improve, would be better for Kerry NOT to make a great effort there and target Midwestern states, PA (and WV), NJ, and those weak areas in New Englland (NH, ME)?

This is straight strategic question.

Note the date.  I go on the thread to mention WI, MN, PA, NH, ME (which Kerry took), OH, IA, and WV.

Not thate except for MN (and my totally wrong NJ), these were all close states which ended up being closer than FL, IIRC.

Minnesota was closer than Florida (by almost 1 and 1/2%).  Maine was nowhere near as close as Florida.  I actually think, though I didn't look at the numbers, that Delaware and New Jersey were closer than Maine.

[AuH2O]

Kerry could not have won WV. He would have had to change the priorities of the electorate there to a very significant degree, which for all practical purposes is impossible.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Kerry could not have won WV. He would have had to change the priorities of the electorate there to a very significant degree, which for all practical purposes is impossible.

The main priorities of the bulk of the electorate in WV haven't changed much since the '60's. ("Food", Flag, God. A crude summary but more-or-less accuarate). Oh they don't like being f***ed around with either.

[J. J.]

I agree with Al.  WV was winnable in this election.  Kerry pulled out more than a month prior to the election.  True, had Kerry pulled out of FL, it might have looked like WV, but a 13 point defeat in FL nets you exactly the same number of EV's as a 3 point defeat, zero.

[AuH2O]

But across the board economic issues just didn't play in the 2004 election. Why would WV have the potential to be so much different?

[J. J.]

But across the board economic issues just didn't play in the 2004 election. Why would WV have the potential to be so much different?

A stong campaign could have made them the issue.  Al has it right.

[MissCatholic]

Hillary has a great chance of picking up Florida against any Republican especially if she goes with richardson.

[CARLHAYDEN]

I must disagree.

Hillary will NOT play well in Florida.

[??????????]

Hillary has a great chance of picking up Florida against any Republican especially if she goes with richardson.

Ok "MissNomo"