florida

[WalterMitty]

even though john kerry invested significant resources in florida, the sunshine state wasnt too close.  the results also seemed to contradict the many polls of the state which consistently showed a tight race (some with kerry leading).

how can anyone argue that florida is still 'trending dem'?

[Rob]

There's no doubt that Florida is much more Republican than most people- including myself- thought it was before the election. There's one bright spot for the Democrats, though: Orange County. It voted (barely) for Kerry, only the second time since 1944 that its gone Democratic (the other time was for Gore in 2000).

[Redefeatbush04]

even though john kerry invested significant resources in florida, the sunshine state wasnt too close.  the results also seemed to contradict the many polls of the state which consistently showed a tight race (some with kerry leading).

how can anyone argue that florida is still 'trending dem'?

It isn't trending dem, but if one wanted to argue that it was they might start by saying that it is because of the large influx of northerners, particularly new england retirees.

[Sam Spade]

even though john kerry invested significant resources in florida, the sunshine state wasnt too close.  the results also seemed to contradict the many polls of the state which consistently showed a tight race (some with kerry leading).

how can anyone argue that florida is still 'trending dem'?

It isn't trending dem, but if one wanted to argue that it was they might start by saying that it is because of the large influx of northerners, particularly new england retirees.

Those areas still aren't growing as fast as the exurbs around Tampa/St. Pete, SW Florida, Orlando, Jacksonville and the Panhandle being populated mainly by rural transfers and Southern retirees.

Unless the Democrats start going successfully into those areas, the Reps will have the natural advantage, as they've had for a while now. (probably on the total of 3-4% nationally)

Statewide is where the Democrats are in real trouble.  StatesRights is quite correct (though sometimes a little Republican bullish) in his analysis on this problem.

[??????????]

Actually Bush gained a lot more of the black vote in south Florida then is widely reported. I have gotten a lot of information on such matters from the Florida GOP.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Actually Bush gained a lot more of the black vote in south Florida then is widely reported. I have gotten a lot of information on such matters from the Florida GOP.

Kerry still won FL blacks 86-13 and FL jews 80-20.

[J. J.]

Actually Bush gained a lot more of the black vote in south Florida then is widely reported. I have gotten a lot of information on such matters from the Florida GOP.

Kerry still won FL blacks 86-13 and FL jews 80-20.

The "Black vote" is still slightly above the national average.  What is the improvement in both groups over 2000.

[phk]

Actually Bush gained a lot more of the black vote in south Florida then is widely reported. I have gotten a lot of information on such matters from the Florida GOP.

Kerry still won FL blacks 86-13 and FL jews 80-20.

The "Black vote" is still slightly above the national average.  What is the improvement in both groups over 2000.

When you hit rock-bottom, you can only go up.

[A18]

Actually, you can also stay the same, and rock bottom is 0%.

[phk]

Actually, you can also stay the same, and rock bottom is 0%.

Well 'bottoming out' is what I meant.

[Smash255]

Part of it may of had to do with having a popular Govesnor (especially after all the hurricane's) as his brother.  The state iis still pretty close to the Natl average, and is MUCH closer to the national average than it use to be

[??????????]

Part of it may of had to do with having a popular Govesnor (especially after all the hurricane's) as his brother.  The state iis still pretty close to the Natl average, and is MUCH closer to the national average than it use to be

Author V.O. Key does a damn good job of explaining Florida in his book, "Southern Politics". And even though it was written in '48 his descriptions on how Florida politics works is almost virtually unchanged. Migration from New England is not new to Florida, its been going on since the 1880s at the earliest. And even in the 1940 census something like 45% of Floridians were not even born in the state of Florida. It's an interesting book and I very highly recommend it.

[Rob]

Part of it may of had to do with having a popular Govesnor (especially after all the hurricane's) as his brother.  The state iis still pretty close to the Natl average, and is MUCH closer to the national average than it use to be

Author V.O. Key does a damn good job of explaining Florida in his book, "Southern Politics". And even though it was written in '48 his descriptions on how Florida politics works is almost virtually unchanged. Migration from New England is not new to Florida, its been going on since the 1880s at the earliest. And even in the 1940 census something like 45% of Floridians were not even born in the state of Florida. It's an interesting book and I very highly recommend it.

I didn't care much for it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Kerry should have given up on Florida and gone nuts over OH, PA, WV. He didn't. He lost the election. Florida is a red herring for Democrats.

[opebo]

Florida was trending Dem in a big way, now GOP in a smaller way.  The reason is demographics - all the old people who can remember the Depression and understood where their bread was buttered were reliable Democrats.  They're mostly dead now, replaced by the next wave of one-foot-in-the-grave types, who are such silly asses they believe they made their own way in the world and the government was just a hindrance.

[WalterMitty]

Kerry should have given up on Florida and gone nuts over OH, PA, WV. He didn't. He lost the election. Florida is a red herring for Democrats.

that makes no sense.

all of the polling, right up to election day, showed florida to be super close.  why would kerry concede a major state when most polls showed it virtually tied.

secondly, there is no way bush could win without florida.  so kerry was smart to make a run at it.

[danwxman]

The most hilarious poll was the FoxNews one the weekend before the election that had Kerry several points ahead of Bush in Florida. It couldn't be more obvious they were trying to excite the base to vote, they pretty much lost all credibility (what little they had) with me.

[Sam Spade]

I get amused by the fact neither side will ever bother to learn two things about polling in Florida:

1.  It's ridiculously hard.  High percentage of the population is not legal American citizens and polling companies need Spanish speakers to deal with the large Latino population.  Most Florida polls are simply crap, plain and true. 

Unfortunately for the Democrats and their foresight, the polls nearly always lean Democrat because they oversample the Gold Coast of Florida and undersample the socially conservative Democrat portions in northern Florida and of pretty much everywhere else in Florida in general

Consider 2004:  Only three polls shined in Florida:  Strategic Vision (Bush +4), Rasumssen (Bush +5, and Mason-Dixon (Bush +4).  Of the other polls conducted the week before the election, only 1 out of the other 12 polls showed Bush doing better than these three.

That means the center of the polling numbers was clearly off this last week by a good 3-4 points.

Same thing happened in 2002, same thing happened in 2000.  Must be a sort of trend, don't you think.

2.  When in doubt (as everything above seems to indicate) trust Mason-Dixon.

Occasionally they're not perfect, but they always get it within the margin of error in Florida and always pick the right winner because they actually understand how to poll the state.

Mason-Dixon polled 5 times in Florida between 4/1/2005 and the election.  Their numbers:

Bush +8, Bush +2, Bush +4, Bush +3, and Bush +4, giving us a total of Bush +4.25.

Hard to get more accurate than that in such a tight and close election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

that makes no sense.

all of the polling, right up to election day, showed florida to be super close.  why would kerry concede a major state when most polls showed it virtually tied.

secondly, there is no way bush could win without florida.  so kerry was smart to make a run at it.

Kerry was foolish to make a run at it; it was always going to be tough whatwith the good economy there and all that. Thing about Florida is that campaigning there (if your a Democrat) don't help you in any other states, it's just a drain on your resources.

Complete waste of time and cost Kerry the election.

[Beet]

that makes no sense.

all of the polling, right up to election day, showed florida to be super close.  why would kerry concede a major state when most polls showed it virtually tied.

secondly, there is no way bush could win without florida.  so kerry was smart to make a run at it.

Kerry was foolish to make a run at it; it was always going to be tough whatwith the good economy there and all that. Thing about Florida is that campaigning there (if your a Democrat) don't help you in any other states, it's just a drain on your resources.

Complete waste of time and cost Kerry the election.

Part of the problem is Kerry himself. If the Dems want to do well in the South they need to nominate someone who is from the South.   If they had nominated Graham for example he'd probably be in the white house now. It sure as hell worked with Clinton and it would work in the future as well. The only problem with Clinton was that he never had any ideas of his own after the health care fiasco.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Part of the problem is Kerry himself. If the Dems want to do well in the South they need to nominate someone who is from the South.   If they had nominated Graham for example he'd probably be in the white house now. It sure as hell worked with Clinton and it would work in the future as well. The only problem with Clinton was that he never had any ideas of his own after the health care fiasco.

Graham wasn't seen as "electable", and so didn't win the primary. I don't know how he would have done in the general election, but the CW was not on his side. If he was seen as electable, he would have easily won.

[Beet]

Part of the problem is Kerry himself. If the Dems want to do well in the South they need to nominate someone who is from the South.   If they had nominated Graham for example he'd probably be in the white house now. It sure as hell worked with Clinton and it would work in the future as well. The only problem with Clinton was that he never had any ideas of his own after the health care fiasco.

Graham wasn't seen as "electable", and so didn't win the primary. I don't know how he would have done in the general election, but the CW was not on his side. If he was seen as electable, he would have easily won.

Under my impression he was seen as quite electable, only he entered the race too late once all the big players had already cast in their hats, managed his campaign poorly, and his antiwar thunder was stolen by Dean.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Kerry didn't know that 4 Hurricanes would hit, and George would spend tens of billions of blue stater's money to buy off the votes of people in Florida.

Something tells me that if the big one hit the bay area, they wouldn't get the same treatment. California would not be bailed out with the money that they sent to DC.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Part of the problem is Kerry himself. If the Dems want to do well in the South they need to nominate someone who is from the South.   If they had nominated Graham for example he'd probably be in the white house now. It sure as hell worked with Clinton and it would work in the future as well. The only problem with Clinton was that he never had any ideas of his own after the health care fiasco.

True enough

[Beet]

Something tells me that if the big one hit the bay area, they wouldn't get the same treatment. California would not be bailed out with the money that they sent to DC.

You are correct