5. New Jersey - 9/11 effect
+ McGreevey effect
I think NJ will be back towards the Dems in the future with Philadelphians moving there. 9/11+McGrrevey was devastating towards the Dems for they had to dedicate resources towards NJ after McGreevey. Pre-McGrrevey polls had NJ for Kerry as high as +20!
NJ's future depends a lot on how the next round of elections there go. There is a window of opporunity for the Republicans to possibly get the Governor's mansion or a Senate seat. If they manage to get one of them (more likely the senate seat) they can try and make some inroads to make the state more competitive.
