Reasons for states' swings towards Kerry or Bush
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  Reasons for states' swings towards Kerry or Bush
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Author Topic: Reasons for states' swings towards Kerry or Bush  (Read 3706 times)
nclib
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« on: April 16, 2005, 03:28:14 PM »

There may be a thread on this somewhere, but I figured I'd list the reasons for the states that swung strongly towards Kerry or Bush. Please list additional reasons if you have them.

Top swings toward Kerry:

1. Vermont - Howard Dean; High 2000 Nader vote; High conservative turnout in 2000 due to gay issue
2. Alaska - High 2000 Nader vote; Libertarian-leaning state
3. Montana - Same as Alaska
4. Oregon - High 2000 Nader vote
5. Colorado - High 2000 Nader vote
6. Maine - High 2000 Nader vote
7. New Hampshire - Libertarian-leaning state
8. Washington - High 2000 Nader vote
9. Idaho - Libertarian leaning state
10. Ohio - poor economy

Top swings towards Bush:

1. Alabama - Social conservatism
2. Tennessee - No Gore on ballot
3. Hawaii - Pro-incumbent state
4. Oklahoma - Populist state
5. New Jersey - 9/11 effect
6. Rhode Island - lots of pro-life Catholics; R.I. historically favors incumbents
7. Connecticut - 9/11 effect; No Lieberman on ballot
8. Louisiana - Populist state
9. New York - 9/11 effect
10. West Virginia - Populist state
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Cashcow
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« Reply #1 on: April 16, 2005, 05:39:09 PM »


+ McGreevey effect
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #2 on: April 16, 2005, 06:53:05 PM »

7. New Hampshire - Libertarian-leaning state

+ John Kerry was more local than George W. Bush.


+ Kerry didn't give up here, unlike Gore.
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FerrisBueller86
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« Reply #3 on: April 16, 2005, 07:13:49 PM »

Why would libertarians have swung AWAY from Bush, and why would populists have swung TOWARDS Bush?
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nclib
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« Reply #4 on: April 16, 2005, 07:32:54 PM »

Bush is more socially conservative than economically conservative.
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TeePee4Prez
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« Reply #5 on: April 17, 2005, 12:42:32 AM »


I think NJ will be back towards the Dems in the future with Philadelphians moving there.  9/11+McGrrevey was devastating towards the Dems for they had to dedicate resources towards NJ after McGreevey.  Pre-McGrrevey polls had NJ for Kerry as high as +20!
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ATFFL
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« Reply #6 on: April 17, 2005, 12:50:41 AM »


I think NJ will be back towards the Dems in the future with Philadelphians moving there.  9/11+McGrrevey was devastating towards the Dems for they had to dedicate resources towards NJ after McGreevey.  Pre-McGrrevey polls had NJ for Kerry as high as +20!

NJ's future depends a lot on how the next round of elections there go.  There is a window of opporunity for the Republicans to possibly get the Governor's mansion or a Senate seat.  If they manage to get one of them (more likely the senate seat) they can try and make some inroads to make the state more competitive.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #7 on: April 17, 2005, 01:07:11 PM »

10. West Virginia - Populist state

The Kerry campaign in WV ed up big time. There was absolutely no reason whatsoever to pull out when the did, and the way they pulled out was shameful.
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Hitchabrut
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« Reply #8 on: April 17, 2005, 02:48:13 PM »


I think NJ will be back towards the Dems in the future with Philadelphians moving there.  9/11+McGrrevey was devastating towards the Dems for they had to dedicate resources towards NJ after McGreevey.  Pre-McGrrevey polls had NJ for Kerry as high as +20!

That was 1 poll. Most showed Kerry ahead by 2-10%
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Alcon
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« Reply #9 on: April 17, 2005, 02:58:21 PM »


I think NJ will be back towards the Dems in the future with Philadelphians moving there.  9/11+McGrrevey was devastating towards the Dems for they had to dedicate resources towards NJ after McGreevey.  Pre-McGrrevey polls had NJ for Kerry as high as +20!

That was 1 poll. Most showed Kerry ahead by 2-10%

Actually, NJ polling was schizophrenic: in the last month, they ranged from Push to Kerry +12, with no real clear number between them - they were everywhere.
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Beet
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« Reply #10 on: April 18, 2005, 04:50:30 AM »

I'm not sure you can explain all the Northwest by the Nader vote. You might want to add libertarian-leaning in there to more states than just ID. Bush's gain in WA, OR, ID, WY, MT, SD and CO were all much lower (~1%) than his average national gain (~2.5%). On the other hand Bush's best areas were in the New York area and the Southeast, especially the mountain areas around Tennessee. But look at just the Bush vote without looking at the Kerry vote to get the relative changes controlling for Nader.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #11 on: April 18, 2005, 07:58:38 AM »


+ Kerry didn't give up here, unlike Gore.
Same for Colorado.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #12 on: April 18, 2005, 08:00:47 AM »

Why would libertarians have swung AWAY from Bush, and why would populists have swung TOWARDS Bush?
Two words:
Guns. Gays.

Compare the 2000 and 2004 Republican Grassroots campaigns.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #13 on: April 18, 2005, 07:20:10 PM »


I think NJ will be back towards the Dems in the future with Philadelphians moving there.  9/11+McGrrevey was devastating towards the Dems for they had to dedicate resources towards NJ after McGreevey.  Pre-McGrrevey polls had NJ for Kerry as high as +20!

Many Philadelphians that move there are escaping a Democrat-controlled city. They aren't thrilled with the leadership here.
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Ebowed
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« Reply #14 on: April 18, 2005, 07:48:54 PM »

10. West Virginia - Populist state

The Kerry campaign in WV f**cked up big time. There was absolutely no reason whatsoever to pull out when the did, and the way they pulled out was shameful.
What way did they pull out...?
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jfern
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« Reply #15 on: April 18, 2005, 08:18:29 PM »

10. West Virginia - Populist state

The Kerry campaign in WV f**cked up big time. There was absolutely no reason whatsoever to pull out when the did, and the way they pulled out was shameful.

Kerry would probably have still lost it. When an ad runs that says that Democrats want to ban the bible, and it's effective, the situation is pretty hopeless.
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Smash255
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« Reply #16 on: April 19, 2005, 12:40:55 AM »


I think NJ will be back towards the Dems in the future with Philadelphians moving there.  9/11+McGrrevey was devastating towards the Dems for they had to dedicate resources towards NJ after McGreevey.  Pre-McGrrevey polls had NJ for Kerry as high as +20!

Many Philadelphians that move there are escaping a Democrat-controlled city. They aren't thrilled with the leadership here.

Isn''t the Philly burbs have a rather large influx of exPhiladelphians.  MontCo, Deleware & Bucks have gotten much more Democratic
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #17 on: April 19, 2005, 02:41:56 AM »


Resources started to come out in the early summer (transferred to VA and OH for the most part) for no good reason.
The actually pull out was done in a real " you" way; he suddenly cancelled a visit to a church (where he was due to meet a lot of state party bigwigs) without giving much of a reason... and he made this even worse by the way he pulled the ads out; the story was basically leaked to the Charleston Daily Mail in a very messy way... no one else had heard about it, least of all state party officials...
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #18 on: April 19, 2005, 02:07:30 PM »


I think NJ will be back towards the Dems in the future with Philadelphians moving there.  9/11+McGrrevey was devastating towards the Dems for they had to dedicate resources towards NJ after McGreevey.  Pre-McGrrevey polls had NJ for Kerry as high as +20!

Many Philadelphians that move there are escaping a Democrat-controlled city. They aren't thrilled with the leadership here.

Isn''t the Philly burbs have a rather large influx of exPhiladelphians.  MontCo, Deleware & Bucks have gotten much more Democratic

That's true but look at these ex-Philadelphians moving to NJ. Many of them are retirees (already Republicans) that are fed up with the way this city is run. Many of them also head to the Jersey shore (more and more Republican).
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nclib
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« Reply #19 on: April 19, 2005, 05:23:37 PM »

Top swings toward Kerry:

1. Vermont - Howard Dean; High 2000 Nader vote; High conservative turnout in 2000 due to gay issue
2. Alaska - High 2000 Nader vote; Libertarian-leaning state
3. Montana - Same as Alaska
4. Oregon - High 2000 Nader vote
5. Colorado - High 2000 Nader vote
6. Maine - High 2000 Nader vote
7. New Hampshire - Libertarian-leaning state
8. Washington - High 2000 Nader vote
9. Idaho - Libertarian leaning state
10. Ohio - poor economy

Top swings towards Bush:

1. Alabama - Social conservatism
2. Tennessee - No Gore on ballot
3. Hawaii - Pro-incumbent state
4. Oklahoma - Populist state
5. New Jersey - 9/11 effect
6. Rhode Island - lots of pro-life Catholics; R.I. historically favors incumbents
7. Connecticut - 9/11 effect; No Lieberman on ballot
8. Louisiana - Populist state
9. New York - 9/11 effect
10. West Virginia - Populist state

I calculated the swings again, but looked only at Bush's percentage (to undo the Nader effect).

Top swings towards Bush:

1. Hawaii
2. Rhode Island
3. Alabama
4. New Jersey
5. Tennessee
6. Connecticut
7. Oklahoma
8. New York
9. Utah
10. Massachusetts


Top swings away from Bush (Note: Only VT, SD, and NC actually swung away from Bush--the rest are Bush's smallest improvements):

1. Vermont
2. South Dakota
3. North Carolina
4. Maine
5. Montana
6. Oregon
7. New Hampshire
8. Ohio
9. Colorado
10. Nevada

The Bush list is pretty similar, with Utah and Massachusetts (!) replacing Louisiana and West Virginia.

The anti-Bush list has 3 replacements, South Dakota (Daschle + anti-incumbent influence), North Carolina (Edwards), and Nevada (Yucca Mountain) replacing Alaska, Washington, and Idaho.
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Smash255
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« Reply #20 on: April 20, 2005, 09:29:56 PM »


I think NJ will be back towards the Dems in the future with Philadelphians moving there.  9/11+McGrrevey was devastating towards the Dems for they had to dedicate resources towards NJ after McGreevey.  Pre-McGrrevey polls had NJ for Kerry as high as +20!

Many Philadelphians that move there are escaping a Democrat-controlled city. They aren't thrilled with the leadership here.

Isn''t the Philly burbs have a rather large influx of exPhiladelphians.  MontCo, Deleware & Bucks have gotten much more Democratic

That's true but look at these ex-Philadelphians moving to NJ. Many of them are retirees (already Republicans) that are fed up with the way this city is run. Many of them also head to the Jersey shore (more and more Republican).

The Social Security plan could mess that all up
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nclib
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« Reply #21 on: April 20, 2005, 10:37:30 PM »

Top swings away from Bush (Note: Only VT, SD, and NC actually swung away from Bush--the rest are Bush's smallest improvements):

6. Oregon
9. Colorado

Does anyone know why Oregon and Colorado are still on this list after the Nader factor is controlled for?
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TeePee4Prez
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« Reply #22 on: April 21, 2005, 03:33:57 AM »


I think NJ will be back towards the Dems in the future with Philadelphians moving there.  9/11+McGrrevey was devastating towards the Dems for they had to dedicate resources towards NJ after McGreevey.  Pre-McGrrevey polls had NJ for Kerry as high as +20!

Many Philadelphians that move there are escaping a Democrat-controlled city. They aren't thrilled with the leadership here.

Isn''t the Philly burbs have a rather large influx of exPhiladelphians.  MontCo, Deleware & Bucks have gotten much more Democratic

That's true but look at these ex-Philadelphians moving to NJ. Many of them are retirees (already Republicans) that are fed up with the way this city is run. Many of them also head to the Jersey shore (more and more Republican).

The Social Security plan could mess that all up

Interstingly Phil is right.  Retirees moving to the shore are VERY Republican.  However, those moving to immediate S. Jersey and PA suburbs are generally leaning Democrat.  As for Congressional districts, this probably means NJ 2 will remain a GOP stronghold for years to come, however NJ 3 could flip upon Saxton's retirement.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #23 on: April 21, 2005, 07:32:33 AM »

Top swings away from Bush (Note: Only VT, SD, and NC actually swung away from Bush--the rest are Bush's smallest improvements):

6. Oregon
9. Colorado

Does anyone know why Oregon and Colorado are still on this list after the Nader factor is controlled for?
I'd call that trending Democrat in the longterm. Smiley

Actually, it might have something to do with the fact that both parties spent quite a bit more money there than last time around. Both were on most people's battleground lists this time around. Four years ago Colorado was treated as a Rep certaincy...and Oregon was treated as a Dem certaincy until pretty late in the campaign.
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No more McShame
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« Reply #24 on: April 22, 2005, 01:21:11 AM »

Top swings away from Bush (Note: Only VT, SD, and NC actually swung away from Bush--the rest are Bush's smallest improvements):

6. Oregon
9. Colorado

Does anyone know why Oregon and Colorado are still on this list after the Nader factor is controlled for?

Both states have libertarian leanings.  If the Republicans ran a more libertarian-minded candidate, they would be very competitive in Oregon and couldn't be touched in Colorado.
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