5. New Jersey - 9/11 effect
+ McGreevey effect
I think NJ will be back towards the Dems in the future with Philadelphians moving there. 9/11+McGrrevey was devastating towards the Dems for they had to dedicate resources towards NJ after McGreevey. Pre-McGrrevey polls had NJ for Kerry as high as +20!
Many Philadelphians that move there are escaping a Democrat-controlled city. They aren't thrilled with the leadership here.
Isn''t the Philly burbs have a rather large influx of exPhiladelphians. MontCo, Deleware & Bucks have gotten much more Democratic
That's true but look at these ex-Philadelphians moving to NJ. Many of them are retirees (already Republicans) that are fed up with the way this city is run. Many of them also head to the Jersey shore (more and more Republican).
The Social Security plan could mess that all up
Interstingly Phil is right. Retirees moving to the shore are VERY Republican. However, those moving to immediate S. Jersey and PA suburbs are generally leaning Democrat. As for Congressional districts, this probably means NJ 2 will remain a GOP stronghold for years to come, however NJ 3 could flip upon Saxton's retirement.
