Top swings toward Kerry:
1. Vermont - Howard Dean; High 2000 Nader vote; High conservative turnout in 2000 due to gay issue
2. Alaska - High 2000 Nader vote; Libertarian-leaning state
3. Montana - Same as Alaska
4. Oregon - High 2000 Nader vote
5. Colorado - High 2000 Nader vote
6. Maine - High 2000 Nader vote
7. New Hampshire - Libertarian-leaning state
8. Washington - High 2000 Nader vote
9. Idaho - Libertarian leaning state
10. Ohio - poor economy
Top swings towards Bush:
1. Alabama - Social conservatism
2. Tennessee - No Gore on ballot
3. Hawaii - Pro-incumbent state
4. Oklahoma - Populist state
5. New Jersey - 9/11 effect
6. Rhode Island - lots of pro-life Catholics; R.I. historically favors incumbents
7. Connecticut - 9/11 effect; No Lieberman on ballot
8. Louisiana - Populist state
9. New York - 9/11 effect
10. West Virginia - Populist state
I calculated the swings again, but looked only at Bush's percentage (to undo the Nader effect).
Top swings towards Bush:
1. Hawaii
2. Rhode Island
3. Alabama
4. New Jersey
5. Tennessee
6. Connecticut
7. Oklahoma
8. New York
9. Utah
10. Massachusetts
Top swings away from Bush (Note: Only VT, SD, and NC actually swung away from Bush--the rest are Bush's smallest improvements):
1. Vermont
2. South Dakota
3. North Carolina
4. Maine
5. Montana
6. Oregon
7. New Hampshire
8. Ohio
9. Colorado
10. Nevada
The Bush list is pretty similar, with Utah and Massachusetts (!) replacing Louisiana and West Virginia.
The anti-Bush list has 3 replacements, South Dakota (Daschle + anti-incumbent influence), North Carolina (Edwards), and Nevada (Yucca Mountain) replacing Alaska, Washington, and Idaho.
