Top swings away from Bush (Note: Only VT, SD, and NC actually swung away from Bush--the rest are Bush's smallest improvements):
6. Oregon
9. Colorado
Does anyone know why Oregon and Colorado are still on this list after the Nader factor is controlled for?
I'd call that trending Democrat in the longterm.
Actually, it might have something to do with the fact that both parties spent quite a bit more money there than last time around. Both were on most people's battleground lists this time around. Four years ago Colorado was treated as a Rep certaincy...and Oregon was treated as a Dem certaincy until pretty late in the campaign.