Reasons for states' swings towards Kerry or Bush (user search)
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  Reasons for states' swings towards Kerry or Bush (search mode)
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Author Topic: Reasons for states' swings towards Kerry or Bush  (Read 3757 times)
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


« on: April 18, 2005, 07:58:38 AM »


+ Kerry didn't give up here, unlike Gore.
Same for Colorado.
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


« Reply #1 on: April 18, 2005, 08:00:47 AM »

Why would libertarians have swung AWAY from Bush, and why would populists have swung TOWARDS Bush?
Two words:
Guns. Gays.

Compare the 2000 and 2004 Republican Grassroots campaigns.
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


« Reply #2 on: April 21, 2005, 07:32:33 AM »

Top swings away from Bush (Note: Only VT, SD, and NC actually swung away from Bush--the rest are Bush's smallest improvements):

6. Oregon
9. Colorado

Does anyone know why Oregon and Colorado are still on this list after the Nader factor is controlled for?
I'd call that trending Democrat in the longterm. Smiley

Actually, it might have something to do with the fact that both parties spent quite a bit more money there than last time around. Both were on most people's battleground lists this time around. Four years ago Colorado was treated as a Rep certaincy...and Oregon was treated as a Dem certaincy until pretty late in the campaign.
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