Arkansas 2014 Statewide Averages by County

[Miles]

Well, not much to like here for Democrats.

I averaged the two-party performance of all eight statewide races by county:



Here's my calculations for each county.

Amazingly, the Republican average was under 60%!

Even in 2010, Democrats were competitive in south-central AR and the northeast, this cycle, they were more or less confined to counties that Obama won. Only three counties (Mississippi, Monroe, and Clark) voted for Romney but had DEM averages.

Blanche Lincoln can also take solace in that 1) her loss looks pretty respectable vis-à-vis these results and 2) she actually managed to carry several counties with REP averages this year.

In 2012, Obama lost the two-party vote by about 24% (losing 62.2/37.8 ). The Democratic average was 5.5% better statewide:



Pretty much what you'd expect. Democrats underperformed in 1) the northwest, where they haven't historically had a presence and 2) a few delta counties, where I imagine black turnout was down.

Democrats overperformed in that region north of Texarkana, which is surely due to Nate Steel.

Finally, here's a PVI. Its basically just showing how much more D/R each county was compared to the state:

[JerryArkansas]

Arkansas is now officially like TN.  A few black belt counties going democratic, and the liberal state capitol surrounded by large conservative suburbs.  Democrats can take some solace.  The Northwest, like I expected is now turning.

[ElectionsGuy]

Awsome work Miles! Amazing that Arkansas officially has no Democratic leadership at the Federal or State levels.

[IceSpear]

Blanche has been vindicated.

[KCDem]

Glorious news! The DLC is officially dead!

[Miles]

The statewide average for each CD:



I was expecting CD2 to be closer, and even though Pryor/Ross would carry it. Looking back I guess it kinda makes sense that it had an R average: Even for state Democrats, the ceiling in Pulaski County is only so high, and those suburban counties around it are tough.

One of the worst things for Democrats is how much CD1 has moved against them. Its partisan average in DRA (which includes most major statewide races from the last decade) is something like 56/44 D, IIRC. The DRA average for CD4, by contrast, was already slightly Republican; now, its the more Democratic of the two.

[Miles]

This was for my curiosity more than anything else: A few years ago, I made an alternate AR redistricting map where I was aiming for 2-2.

I wanted to see how my districts would have held up this year:



All four would have had Republican averages but 1) my CD1 would still be 5 points to the left of the state average and 2) given the electoral environment CD2 being 50/50 is pretty decent.

Comparing PVIs, you can see how Democrats still thought they could go for 3-1, while I tried to shore up 2 seats for them:

[Sol]

Again, (traditional) Southern Democrats continue to be dead.

Also proves the eternal idiocy of the ARDP in not drawing a Pine Bluff-Little Rock-Delta district.