Japan Lower House election - Dec 14, 2014

[jaichind]

NHK count

LDP  259
DPJ    51
JIP     28
KP      29
PFG     2
JCP    15
PLP     2
SDP    1
Ind     9 (6 pro-LDP, 3 pro-DPJ)

[jaichind]

In the old DPJ stronghold of 愛知 (Aichi) the DPJ is making a comeback.  So far DPJ JIP won 6 of the 14 seats called with one left to call which could very well go to DPJ.

[jaichind]

NHK count

LDP  264
DPJ    53
JIP     28
KP      29
PFG     2
JCP    15
PLP     2
SDP    2
Ind     9 (6 pro-LDP, 3 pro-DPJ)

[jaichind]

NHK count

LDP  271
DPJ    59
JIP     30
KP      30
PFG     2
JCP    17
PLP     2
SDP    2
Ind     9 (6 pro-LDP, 3 pro-DPJ)

[jaichind]

東海 PR region tends to be the bellweather region as far as PR votes are concerned.

With 10% of the vote in it is

LDP   35.5%
DPJ    21.9%
JIP     14.2%
KP     14.0%
JCP      8.8%
PFG     2.4%
PLP     1.4%
SDP     1.4%
HRP     0.6%

LDP+KP s far is 49.5%

[jaichind]

NHK count

LDP  274
DPJ    60
JIP     33
KP      31
PFG     2
JCP    17
PLP     2
SDP    2
Ind     9 (6 pro-LDP, 3 pro-DPJ)

[jaichind]

東海 PR region 

With 15% of the vote in it is

LDP   35.8%
DPJ    22.3%
JIP     14.5%
KP     12.8%
JCP      9.0%
PFG     2.3%
PLP     1.4%
SDP     1.3%
HRP     0.6%

LDP+KP s far is 48.6%

[jaichind]

NHK count

LDP  275
DPJ    61
JIP     35
KP      31
PFG     2
JCP    17
PLP     2
SDP    2
Ind     9 (6 pro-LDP, 3 pro-DPJ)

[jaichind]

Looking at PR vote of Hokkaido 北海道 it is clear that the DPJ NPD alliance did not work. 

With 55% of the vote in it is

LDP   31.7%
DPJ    28.9%
KP     12.8%
JCP    11.2%
JIP      8.7%

LDP-KP is at 44.5% which is a 7% positive swing from 2012.  It is pretty clear most of that came from NPD.  This is the main reason that DPJ did not achieve a victory in Hokkaido this time despite a nominal alliance with NPD.

[jaichind]

東海 PR region 

With 24% of the vote in it is

LDP   34.7%
DPJ    22.0%
JIP     15.3%
KP     12.9%
JCP      9.2%
PFG     2.4%
PLP     1.5%
SDP     1.5%
HRP     0.6%

LDP+KP s far is 47.6%

[jaichind]

Ashai count

LDP  283
DPJ    66
JIP     37
KP      33
PFG     2
JCP    19
PLP     2
SDP    2
Ind     9 (6 pro-LDP, 3 pro-DPJ)

[jaichind]

Looks like LDP-KP will end up with around 325 which is the same as 2012.  So we have a $600 million election to get the exact same result as 2012.

[jaichind]

Ashai count

LDP  284
DPJ    68
JIP     37
KP      33
PFG     2
JCP    19
PLP     2
SDP    2
Ind     9 (6 pro-LDP, 3 pro-DPJ)

[jaichind]

Ashai count

LDP  288
DPJ    69
JIP     37
KP      33
PFG     2
JCP    20
PLP     2
SDP    2
Ind     9 (6 pro-LDP, 3 pro-DPJ)

[jaichind]

Looking at the PR vote, the biggest swing toward LDP-KP was in Tokyo.  I guess YP votes in Tokyo went mostly to LDP.  That goes to explain why LDP/KP won in Tokyo big in FPTP.

[jaichind]

東海 PR region 

With 53% of the vote in it is

LDP   33.5%
DPJ    23.6%
JIP     14.3%
KP     12.9%
JCP      9.6%
PFG     2.3%
PLP     1.8%
SDP     1.3%
HRP     0.5%

LDP+KP s far is 46.4%. 

This implies that LDP+KP will be around 48% in Japan overall.

[jaichind]

NHK pretty much called all the FPTP seats

LDP    221
DPJ      39
JIP       11
KP         9
PFG       2
JCP       1
Ind       9 (6 pro-LDP, 3 pro-DPJ)

[jaichind]

Asahi pretty much called all 295 FPTP seats as well.  Their calls matches NHK except for Tokyo 21st.  NHK has DPJ winning and Asahi has LDP winning.

[jaichind]

Ashai count

LDP  289
DPJ    72
JIP     38
KP      33
PFG     2
JCP    20
PLP     2
SDP    2
Ind     9 (6 pro-LDP, 3 pro-DPJ)

[Vega]

Shintaro Ishihara and Yoshimi Watanabe both look to be defeated.
 

[jaichind]

Shintaro Ishihara and Yoshimi Watanabe both look to be defeated.
 

Yep, mentioned that earlier.  This seems to be the death of personality based parties.

[jaichind]

Ashai count

LDP  289
DPJ    72
JIP     38
KP      34
PFG     2
JCP    21
PLP     2
SDP    2
Ind     9 (6 pro-LDP, 3 pro-DPJ)

[jaichind]

Looks like LDP-KP PR will be more like 47.5% if not 47%.

[jaichind]

Ashai count

LDP  290
DPJ    72
JIP     39
KP      34
PFG     2
JCP    21
PLP     2
SDP    2
Ind     9 (6 pro-LDP, 3 pro-DPJ)

[Cassius]

Any ideas as to why the JCP is doing so comparatively well?