IL-Sen. 2016 Thread: Duckworth nearly triples Kirk Q2 fundraising

[Miles]

^ This is for the DCCC, not the DSCC.

[Mr. Illini]

I'd imagine this makes Bustos less likely to run for Senate:

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Terrible news! She was our best shot. She may enjoy another victory in her very favorable district now and run for governor in 2018 rather.

[Flake]

I'd imagine this makes Bustos less likely to run for Senate:

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Hopefully Robin Kelly or Tammy Duckworth can run!

[Xing]

I'm 90% sure Duckworth will run.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

As a big Mark Kirk fan, Duckworth worries me some because she, with her health, totally eliminates any 'sympathy advantage' that Kirk may have because of his health. She also won by 12 points last year against a significant challenger, despite the GOP Wave, and defeated an incumbent by 10 the cycle before that.

On the other hand, her voting record doesn't look moderate from a quick glance, and she's gotten into a bad habit of missing essentially every vote since the 2014 midterms (her attendance record is excellent before that, so it's probably not part of her medical situation):

https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/tammy_duckworth/412533 - Attendance
https://votesmart.org/candidate/key-votes/57442/tammy-duckworth#.VNRRz_nYVSk - Voting Record


I think we can close the door on a Bustos run, considering this: http://chicago.suntimes.com/politics/7/71/344472/rep-cheri-bustos-tapped-dccc-recruitment-vice-chair

Madigan would obviously be a stellar choice, for reasons I probably don't need to explain. If she runs, the race goes to just inches away from Safe D.

[free my dawg]

As a big Mark Kirk fan, Duckworth worries me some because she, with her health, totally eliminates any 'sympathy advantage' that Kirk may have because of his health. She also won by 12 points last year against a significant challenger, despite the GOP Wave, and defeated an incumbent by 10 the cycle before that.

On the other hand, her voting record doesn't look moderate from a quick glance, and she's gotten into a bad habit of missing essentially every vote since the 2014 midterms (her attendance record is excellent before that, so it's probably not part of her medical situation):

Two things:

*She may have beaten an incumbent by 10, but that incumbent was also Bachmann-tier crazy, had six overdue figures in child support, and actually said she "wasn't a true hero" because she "always talked about her military service". She should have won by a hell of a lot more, considering who she was facing.

*She's also missed every vote because she had a baby girl in November. Her maternity leave should be over soon and she should be back in Washington by the end of the month.

[Mr. Illini]

As a big Mark Kirk fan, Duckworth worries me some because she, with her health, totally eliminates any 'sympathy advantage' that Kirk may have because of his health. She also won by 12 points last year against a significant challenger, despite the GOP Wave, and defeated an incumbent by 10 the cycle before that.

On the other hand, her voting record doesn't look moderate from a quick glance, and she's gotten into a bad habit of missing essentially every vote since the 2014 midterms (her attendance record is excellent before that, so it's probably not part of her medical situation):

https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/tammy_duckworth/412533 - Attendance
https://votesmart.org/candidate/key-votes/57442/tammy-duckworth#.VNRRz_nYVSk - Voting Record


I think we can close the door on a Bustos run, considering this: http://chicago.suntimes.com/politics/7/71/344472/rep-cheri-bustos-tapped-dccc-recruitment-vice-chair

Madigan would obviously be a stellar choice, for reasons I probably don't need to explain. If she runs, the race goes to just inches away from Safe D.

I'm skeptical of any potential 'sympathy advantage' that would go Kirk's way. He can turn it into a positive by talking about how he battled back to serve them in the remainder of his term, which is legitimate in my eyes (I have respect for the guy). But that's different than a sympathy advantage. "I am sick so you should re-elect me" is not a realistic advantage in my opinion.

[badgate]

Rep. Robin Kelly "doing her due diligence to see if there is a path" to the Senate

http://chicago.suntimes.com/news-chicago/7/71/314849/rep-robin-kelly-mulling-senate-run

I've been a Kelly fan for a while now. She and Bustos are the best potential candidates at this point in my opinion.

WOO HOOO!!!!!!

[Pandaguineapig]

Kelly got Crushed the one time she tried to run statewide before so I don't understand all this hype and excitement over her

[badgate]

Kelly got Crushed the one time she tried to run statewide before so I don't understand all this hype and excitement over her

I don't buy that. Robin Kelly increased her share of the vote by 8% between the 2013 special and 2014. Mark Kirk won in 2010 by less than 2% and under 50%, while Kelly lost by 5% in what was a large wave election. Kirk might hold it close in the end, but I think he'd lose.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kelly defeated Halvorson 56-20 which was thought to be a competetive race and would be a better Senator than Duckworth.

[Mr. Illini]

State Senator Napoleon Harris floats his own name

http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20150130/NEWS02/150139976/are-a-policy-wonk-and-a-former-nfl-player-ready-for-2016

Sure wouldn't be my pick. Young, inexperienced, and socially conservative.

Kelly would receive my vote in the suggested Kelly-Harris primary from the article.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

State Senator Napoleon Harris floats his own name

http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20150130/NEWS02/150139976/are-a-policy-wonk-and-a-former-nfl-player-ready-for-2016

Sure wouldn't be my pick. Young, inexperienced, and socially conservative.

Kelly would receive my vote in the suggested Kelly-Harris primary from the article.

Fully endorsed, we need more like him in senate, a frm black NFLstate senator from Illinois and Ted Strickland and Sestak are solid recruits.

[Keystone Phil]

State Senator Napoleon Harris floats his own name

http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20150130/NEWS02/150139976/are-a-policy-wonk-and-a-former-nfl-player-ready-for-2016

Sure wouldn't be my pick. Young, inexperienced, and socially conservative.

Kelly would receive my vote in the suggested Kelly-Harris primary from the article.

Fully endorsed, we need more like him in senate, a frm black NFLstate senator from Illinois and Ted Strickland and Sestak are solid recruits.

We do need more NFL State Senators.

[badgate]

Kelly defeated Halvorson 56-20 which was thought to be a competetive race and would be a better Senator than Duckworth.

Good point. I forgot about the primary, but now that I think of it I recall everyone was sure that the black vote would split and stick us with Halvorson.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Quinn interjected himself on Peotone airport and the whole thing became about runway expansion, although Halvorson supported it at OHare, it made her the airport enemy.

[Mr. Illini]

Joe Walsh wants to challenge Kirk

http://www.dailyherald.com/article/20150216/news/150219038/

This would be comedic gold, as is any time Walsh makes his way into relevancy.

[Gass3268]

Joe Walsh wants to challenge Kirk

http://www.dailyherald.com/article/20150216/news/150219038/

This would be comedic gold, as is any time Walsh makes his way into relevancy.

Also any time and money Kirk would have to waste with Walsh would be excellent.

[Zioneer]

Joe Walsh wants to challenge Kirk

http://www.dailyherald.com/article/20150216/news/150219038/

This would be comedic gold, as is any time Walsh makes his way into relevancy.

Also any time and money Kirk would have to waste with Walsh would be excellent.

If he actually managed to become the nominee, I would cackle, but even a semi-close primary would be amusing.

[RogueBeaver]

Kelly feels she'd have a path to victory.

[Mr. Illini]

Kelly feels she'd have a path to victory.

I think she is going to run for sure, which I am excited about.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kelly feels she'd have a path to victory.

I think she is going to run for sure, which I am excited about.

Duckworth will run and win, although Kelly will run, she doesn't have the union support to cross finish line.

[Mr. Illini]

Mark Kirk kicks off fundraising with massive event featuring Rauner

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/chi-kirk-to-host-gop-fundraiser-for-2016-reelection-campaign-20150316-story.html

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Kelly feels she'd have a path to victory.

Every notable IL Democrat has a "path to victory". Kirk is the country's most vulnerable senator.

[Miles]

Bill Foster still looking at running:

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