IL-Sen. 2016 Thread: Duckworth nearly triples Kirk Q2 fundraising

[Mr. Illini]

Just over a week out of the 2014 midterms and we've already got rumors swirling in all different threads about this, one of the most intriguing races of the cycle.

This thread will serve as the grapevine.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I want Kirk to survive, but it's going to be a very tough fight for him, whether he's against Madigan or some B-list option like Duckworth.

[Lief 🗽]

I hadn't heard of Tom Dart before today, but I've looked into him a bit this afternoon and I have to say he seems like an intriguing choice. Handsome, seems charismatic and positive, unique profile (not another legislator looking for a promotion), his advocacy on prison reform and suspension of foreclosures in 2009 are impressive. Apparently he was heavily recruited in 2009 to run for the seat, but declined.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I read somewhere about Quinn running but I can't imagine Illinois Democrats being so masochistic.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I read somewhere about Quinn running but I can't imagine Illinois Democrats being so masochistic.

LOLOL.

Only place Quinn is going is to the nearest jail.

[Mr. Illini]

Just to bring the thread to speed.

Mark Kirk (R-Highland Park) is running for re-election
http://abc7chicago.com/politics/us-sen-mark-kirk-to-run-for-re-election-in-2016-/382589/

Duckworth (D-Hoffman Estates) is leaning heavily against running
http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20141111/BLOGS02/141119947?template=mobile&X-IgnoreUserAgent=1

Other names tossed out since last Tuesday:
Lisa Madigan (D-Chicago)
Cheri Bustos (D-Moline)
Mike Quigley (D-Chicago)
Bill Foster (D-Naperville)
Tom Dart (D-Chicago)
Jan Schakowsky (D-Evanston)
Sheila Simon (D-Carbondale)
Joe Walsh (R-McHenry)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Just to bring the thread to speed.

Mark Kirk (R-Highland Park) is running for re-election
http://abc7chicago.com/politics/us-sen-mark-kirk-to-run-for-re-election-in-2016-/382589/

Duckworth (D-Hoffman Estates) is leaning heavily against running
http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20141111/BLOGS02/141119947?template=mobile&X-IgnoreUserAgent=1

Other names tossed out since last Tuesday:
Lisa Madigan (D-Chicago)
Cheri Bustos (D-Moline)
Mike Quigley (D-Chicago)
Bill Foster (D-Naperville)
Tom Dart (D-Chicago)
Jan Schakowsky (D-Evanston)
Sheila Simon (D-Carbondale)

Why is Simon a serious option? Wouldn't being tied to the unpopular Quinn be a huge negative?

[Lief 🗽]

Wait Joe Walsh is considering a primary challenge? omg

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

This race hinges on 3 things:

1.) The electorate and environment on November 8, 2016
2.) The Democratic candidate
3.) The status of Mark Kirk's campaign and personal brand

If just one of these 3 things isn't in his favor, Kirk's in serious jeopardy (could pull it out, but I wouldn't bet on it). If two of them aren't, he's a goner. And even if all 3 are going for him, he's still struggle-busing.

It would be interesting to see if Kirk could become the Kay Hagan of 2016: good campaign, flawed challenger, personally inoffensive, but still taken down by the environment and electorate.

[Mr. Illini]

Just to bring the thread to speed.

Mark Kirk (R-Highland Park) is running for re-election
http://abc7chicago.com/politics/us-sen-mark-kirk-to-run-for-re-election-in-2016-/382589/

Duckworth (D-Hoffman Estates) is leaning heavily against running
http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20141111/BLOGS02/141119947?template=mobile&X-IgnoreUserAgent=1

Other names tossed out since last Tuesday:
Lisa Madigan (D-Chicago)
Cheri Bustos (D-Moline)
Mike Quigley (D-Chicago)
Bill Foster (D-Naperville)
Tom Dart (D-Chicago)
Jan Schakowsky (D-Evanston)
Sheila Simon (D-Carbondale)

Why is Simon a serious option? Wouldn't being tied to the unpopular Quinn be a huge negative?

She is much more closely tied to her father than to Quinn, and that matters downstate. That said, I don't think she's a good candidate. Her performance for comptroller was underwhelming.

To Lief's post, I am guessing you saw me talking about Dart in one of the other threads. He's an awesome candidate. The charisma is Kennedy-esque and he is a candidate that can get people excited, unlike people like Foster and Quigley, who are quite frankly very boring.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Just to bring the thread to speed.

Mark Kirk (R-Highland Park) is running for re-election
http://abc7chicago.com/politics/us-sen-mark-kirk-to-run-for-re-election-in-2016-/382589/

Duckworth (D-Hoffman Estates) is leaning heavily against running
http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20141111/BLOGS02/141119947?template=mobile&X-IgnoreUserAgent=1

Other names tossed out since last Tuesday:
Lisa Madigan (D-Chicago)
Cheri Bustos (D-Moline)
Mike Quigley (D-Chicago)
Bill Foster (D-Naperville)
Tom Dart (D-Chicago)
Jan Schakowsky (D-Evanston)
Sheila Simon (D-Carbondale)

Why is Simon a serious option? Wouldn't being tied to the unpopular Quinn be a huge negative?

She kept Topinka under 50%, and she's personally inoffensive. The Quinn tie would fall flat unless somehow he went down in an investigation and she was linked to it, which is highly unlikely.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I hadn't heard of Tom Dart before today,

What a cool name.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Tom Dart or Mike Quigley would be great.

[Senator Cris]

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/223859-top-kirk-advisor-moving-to-campaign-side-in-preparation-for

[Mr. Illini]

Just to bring the thread to speed.

Mark Kirk (R-Highland Park) is running for re-election
http://abc7chicago.com/politics/us-sen-mark-kirk-to-run-for-re-election-in-2016-/382589/

Duckworth (D-Hoffman Estates) is leaning heavily against running
http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20141111/BLOGS02/141119947?template=mobile&X-IgnoreUserAgent=1

Other names tossed out since last Tuesday:
Lisa Madigan (D-Chicago)
Cheri Bustos (D-Moline)
Mike Quigley (D-Chicago)
Bill Foster (D-Naperville)
Tom Dart (D-Chicago)
Jan Schakowsky (D-Evanston)
Sheila Simon (D-Carbondale)

Why is Simon a serious option? Wouldn't being tied to the unpopular Quinn be a huge negative?

She kept Topinka under 50%, and she's personally inoffensive. The Quinn tie would fall flat unless somehow he went down in an investigation and she was linked to it, which is highly unlikely.

She's not particularly exciting and her campaign was nearly nonexistent this year. I agree the Quinn tie is irrelevant here, but she really is not a candidate that can get people excited. I'm hoping that she, Foster, and Quigley bow out early.

The nominee is going to need to electorally be good at getting support in the suburbs and Democratic leaning areas downstate. You need an exciting candidate to do that, because Kirk is an exciting candidate, especially in the suburbs.

[IceSpear]

Wait Joe Walsh is considering a primary challenge? omg

Yeah I got excited for a second.  Unfortunately Illinois is one of the few states where a nutjob Tea Partier would have no chance whatsoever to win a primary against an incumbent Senator.

[henster]

Madigan puts this race away early less $$ to spend, someone like Bustos would be good a generic D who can ride Cook to victory.

[RogueBeaver]

Another source says Duckworth is interested but focused on her daughter's impending birth.

[Maxwell]

To me, Bustos is Kirk's worst fear.

[henster]

Madigan is definitely Kirk's worse fear his second would be Duckworth. Between Madigan, Duckworth, and Bustos if I were him I'd rather run against Bustos.

[Mr. Illini]

Madigan is definitely Kirk's worse fear his second would be Duckworth. Between Madigan, Duckworth, and Bustos if I were him I'd rather run against Bustos.

I think you're underestimating Bustos. Not being from Chicagoland is one huge benefit right from the start. She's proven already to be a pragmatist while still being a liberal. She's a good public speaker and she has built her career on saving manufacturing jobs. She's poyfect.

[Landslide Lyndon]

How about Kwame Raoul?

[Maxwell]

Madigan is definitely Kirk's worse fear his second would be Duckworth. Between Madigan, Duckworth, and Bustos if I were him I'd rather run against Bustos.

Duckworth is a pretty underwhelming campaigner, Madigan is too entrenched, Bustos is neither of those things.

[henster]

Madigan is definitely Kirk's worse fear his second would be Duckworth. Between Madigan, Duckworth, and Bustos if I were him I'd rather run against Bustos.

Duckworth is a pretty underwhelming campaigner, Madigan is too entrenched, Bustos is neither of those things.

I have no doubt all three could defeat Kirk.

[windjammer]

To me, Bustos is Kirk's worst fear.