Which result was more surprising?

[Miles]

Close, but I'll say option 2. Everyone thought LePage had a ceiling at 42-43%.

[Flake]

Rauner, even his internals didn't put him above 50%.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Definitely Rauner.


With Maine, you had Cutler's spoiler possibility. In Illinois, all recent polling showed Quinn leading him, and even if you thought Rauner would win, I doubt anyone expected it to be so large and so quick.

[Nhoj]

Definitely Rauner.


With Maine, you had Cutler's spoiler possibility. In Illinois, all recent polling showed Quinn leading him, and even if you thought Rauner would win, I doubt anyone expected it to be so large and so quick.

How does cutler being a spoiler give LePage a larger share of the vote than was expected?

[KCDem]

Definitely Rauner.


With Maine, you had Cutler's spoiler possibility. In Illinois, all recent polling showed Quinn leading him, and even if you thought Rauner would win, I doubt anyone expected it to be so large and so quick.

How does cutler being a spoiler give LePage a larger share of the vote than was expected?

^^this. The fact that LePage got 48% is criminal. Rural Maine hates the gays.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Rauner. Lepage was one of the calls I was most unsure about, but in the end I went with Cutler's support going low enough for a Michaud Victory. As for Rauner, as much as I liked him (and believe he'll be a great governor), after WAA showed him behind by 5 I was fully convinced of a Quinn victory.

However, the biggest surprise among the governors would be a tie between Maryland and Vermont. Oregon is right up there too.

[jaichind]

For sure LePage.  I expected the GOP to win both races by a narrow margin.  The fact that both were won by a 4%-5% margin were equally surprising.  But the ME race is more surprising because of the way LePage won.  If someone told me that Cutler would win 8% of the vote AND that turnout would rise 4% from 2010 I would have said that LePage is gone for sure.  Instead he won by 4%.  Cutler at 8% would have meant that there was significant tactical voting which in theory benefit Michaud.  Somehow it helped LePage more instead or it helped Michaud but somehow the Dem based did not turn out to vote and LePage.  But turnout in ME went up 4% from 2010 so that is not the answer either.  Somewhere or somehow there was a surge of support for LePage which no one seems to be able to explain and somehow that came at the net expense of Cutler which makes no sense since they should be two quite separate voting blocs.

[Vega]

Rauner, even his internals didn't put him above 50%.

[IceSpear]

For sure LePage.  I expected the GOP to win both races by a narrow margin.  The fact that both were won by a 4%-5% margin were equally surprising.  But the ME race is more surprising because of the way LePage won.  If someone told me that Cutler would win 8% of the vote AND that turnout would rise 4% from 2010 I would have said that LePage is gone for sure.  Instead he won by 4%.  Cutler at 8% would have meant that there was significant tactical voting which in theory benefit Michaud.  Somehow it helped LePage more instead or it helped Michaud but somehow the Dem based did not turn out to vote and LePage.  But turnout in ME went up 4% from 2010 so that is not the answer either.  Somewhere or somehow there was a surge of support for LePage which no one seems to be able to explain and somehow that came at the net expense of Cutler which makes no sense since they should be two quite separate voting blocs.

It's possible that the "LePage second choice" Cutler supporters abandoned him for LePage, whereas the "Michaud second choice" ones stuck with Cutler. I think there was a similar dynamic in the McAuliffe/Cuccinelli/Sarvis race. Sarvis got well below his polls, and Cuccinelli did far better than expected.

[ElectionsGuy]

I expected Quinn to get >50%. That race was probably the 2nd most surprising of the night besides Maryland.

[jaichind]

It's possible that the "LePage second choice" Cutler supporters abandoned him for LePage, whereas the "Michaud second choice" ones stuck with Cutler. I think there was a similar dynamic in the McAuliffe/Cuccinelli/Sarvis race. Sarvis got well below his polls, and Cuccinelli did far better than expected.

This is very possible.  The exit polls show that had it been a 2 way race LePage would have won 49-46 which is a total shock to me.  LePage won GOP voters 87-8 but held losses in Dem voters to 78-16 while mostly splitting the independent vote.  LePage won conservatives 86-9 and held losses in liberal voters to 79-15 while splitting the moderate vote.  It seems that this would validate your theory of "LePage second choice" Cultler voters who mostly are either Dem/Lib or Independent/Moderates having lost faith in Michaud and wanting to vote for Cutler then realized that Cutler could not win and then voted for LePage.  Cutler seems to have played a role of a transition station for Michaud voters to go over to Lepage.