IL 2016: Kirk is in

[jd1433]

He's Scott Brown in 2012.

Will go down only with a strong Dem challenger.

[henster]

Kirk barely won against a corrupt Democratic candidate in 2010 what makes you think he can beat Duckworth, Bustos in a Presidential year? He's nothing special the voters there barely even know him.

[moderatevoter]

I think Kirk is going to lose.

His favorables aren't anything special, which makes me think he's fairly anonymous.

Additionally, he barely beat a very flawed candidate in 2010 -- and didn't hit 50% for that matter.

[DS0816]

That Illinois U.S. Senate seat will become a 2016 Democratic pickup.

Telling that the Republican U.S. Senate-seats victories in Illinois, since after the 1980s, have always come in midterm but not presidential election cycles.

[Mr. Illini]

Who the HELL is going to run for this seat? I know there will be no shortage of power hungry Democrats in Illinois, but any good candidates?

Jan Schakowsky, Robin Kelly, Sheila Simon, Mike Frerichs, Tammy Duckworth, Cheri Bustos, Luis Gutierrez, Mike Quigley, etc etc

Don't worry, there's a host of ILDems already eyeing this one. I would think that Bustos or Duckworth are the strongest candidates at this point and therefore early frontrunners.

What Madigan does is very much unclear right now.

[Lief 🗽]

I hope it's not Duckworth. I think she's very over-rated (someone with a good resume but not a great campaigner). She did significantly worse than Obama in 2012 despite running against a right-wing lunatic.

[PAK Man]

I'm calling this a Tossup to start off with. Kirk may be a Republican in a blue state, but as someone who lived on the borders of the old 9th and 10th Districts (I lived in the 9th but I could walk to the 10th District from my house) I can tell you it won't be easy to defeat him. Even in Democratic wave years, he still somehow found ways to hold on. Yes, it will be a challenge for him to hold on, but don't be surprised if he pulls it out in the end.

[Maxwell]

I hope it's not Duckworth. I think she's very over-rated (someone with a good resume but not a great campaigner). She did significantly worse than Obama in 2012 despite running against a right-wing lunatic.

Yea, Duckworth is an example of someone who could very easily blow this race. I'll say this much - Cheri Bustos is someone Mark Kirk should watch out for - A strong campaigner, relatively moderate (but not in a way that offends the base), and can raise money. She's gotta be Kirk's worst nightmare. I think she'd be a better nominee than even Madigan, who can be tied to corrupt politicians in Springfield, compared to the relatively clean Kirk.

Kirk starts as the underdog, but really, he's not someone to just toss-off as an already picked-up seat.

[Vega]

Duckworth looks good on paper (She's a women, check, Asian, check, a Veteran, check and disabled, check). I'm not taking that away from her, but Dems could find better candidates.

[KCDem]

No thanks to Duckworth. We need someone to draw a contrast (however subtle) with Kirk's health.

[GaussLaw]

No thanks to Duckworth. We need someone to draw a contrast (however subtle) with Kirk's health.

I agree with this.  Voters might associate "Kirk" with "stroke," and that won't help him, even if he got a lot of sympathy for it.

[JRP1994]

No thanks to Duckworth. We need someone to draw a contrast (however subtle) with Kirk's health.

Unless there's concrete evidence that Kirk's stroke is still impeding his ability to execute his duties as Senator, then exploiting it for political gain is a horrible suggestion.

[Ljube]

Women tend to vote out of sympathy, so I expect Kirk will fare far better with women than a generic R would.
I think his stroke is a net positive.

[Mr. Smith]

It'd make me laugh if Obama came back to regain his old seat.

[politicus]

Women tend to vote out of sympathy, so I expect Kirk will fare far better with women than a generic R would.
I think his stroke is a net positive.

Stereotype much?

[Nichlemn]

It'd make me laugh if Obama came back to regain his old seat.

Funnier still if he lost. Though I do wonder how he'd do. I'd imagine a fairly ordinary performance for an Illinois Democrat, his advantages mitigated by being so associated with DC now.

If he did actually want to return to the Senate (and I doubt he would, why take a demotion when he could make millions giving speeches, and play the elder statesman without having to do any work?), I doubt he'd do it in his own term. Too much of a distraction from Presidential duties for too little gain (that is, something less than another term as President).