Opinion on the Taiwan issue?

[hangfan91]

The Nationalists lost the Chinese Civil War and had to flee to the island of Taiwan after 1949. They maintain their claim over the rest of mainland China and the Communists in Beijing maintain that Taiwan is a part of their People's Republic of China.

Now there is a debate in Taiwan whether to be closer to China and reunite (pan blue) or go their own separate way (pan green).

Which is better IYO?

[politicus]

It was polled in June:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=193763.0

[andrew_c]

Based on the current situation, Taiwan should be independent.  If they reunified with mainland China, they'd end up like Hong Kong: Freedom and democracy taken away by Beijing.

I do believe that Taiwan should eventually reunify with a free and democratic Mainland China.  After all, the Communist Party won't rule forever. 
The Soviet Union lasted for 74 years.  If we use that as a precedent, the Chinese Communist Party will lose control of the country within 10 years.

[TDAS04]

Option 1, especially if it's the only way it can keep democracy.  Also, Taiwan is a well-run place.  It's wealthy, and may not reunite while mainland is much poorer.  Taiwan is also one of the most socially progressive, tolerant places in Asia, and if it's China, it should at least be able to remain a more humane China.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Based on the current situation, Taiwan should be independent.  If they reunified with mainland China, they'd end up like Hong Kong: Freedom and democracy taken away by Beijing.

I do believe that Taiwan should eventually reunify with a free and democratic Mainland China.  After all, the Communist Party won't rule forever. 
The Soviet Union lasted for 74 years.  If we use that as a precedent, the Chinese Communist Party will lose control of the country within 10 years.

lol

[TNF]

I mean I tend to think that the Taiwanese should be ultimate arbiters of that question, but as to me personally, I tend to oppose things (like Taiwanese independence) that could result in World War III.

[H. Ross Peron]

Maintain status quo until China democratizes

[TNF]

Maintain status quo until China democratizes

There is no guarantee that China is going to democratize, and if it does, it will probably look a lot more like what passes for 'democracy' in Russia than what passes for it in Western Europe or the United States.

[H. Ross Peron]

Maintain status quo until China democratizes

There is no guarantee that China is going to democratize, and if it does, it will probably look a lot more like what passes for 'democracy' in Russia than what passes for it in Western Europe or the United States.

If we get lucky it'll be Taiwan or South Korea, if not we might have something like LDP-era Japan.

[Frodo]

Maintain status quo until China democratizes

^^^^^^^^^^^^

I hope those demanding we recognize Taiwan officially as an independent country understand the full ramifications of that -and the likelihood of war with China as a direct result. 

[tpfkaw]

If China "democratized," it'd be at war with Taiwan within the month.

Anyway, China's a part of the RoC.

Well, not exactly. Pretending that the de facto government doesn't exist is a very 20th-century idea.

[Incipimus iterum]

I believe that Taiwan should remain a independent country.

[Redalgo]

I doubt it would turn out the way it should, but Taiwan could be an autonomous region of the PRC, establish a new government, and cease any territorial claims to the mainland in exchange for lots of leeway to govern most of its own affairs. The notion of a fully independent Taiwan is not offensive to me by the way... it just seems like more of a political wound in need of healing (e.g. like the Korean division) than an instance of having two countries with fundamentally distinct identities, histories, and aspirations.

Maybe there is a better way to look at this, because I will freely admit to lack depth of knowledge on this issue. More than anything at the moment it appears as though American stances on Taiwan, Tibet, force projection to southeast Asia, and farm subsidies back home piss the PRC off, making it more difficult to coexist in harmony with and secure mutual gains through fruitful diplomatic dialogues. That is not to say appeasement should be a default position of ours with China but the U.S. steps on their toes a lot and it may eventually come back to haunt us in the future.