1860: Lincoln vs. Buchanan

[President Johnson]

President James Buchanan runs for a second term against Abraham Lincoln in a two-way race. Is Buchanan reelected? Keep in mind, that secession of the south begun after the election.

[SPC]

Buchanan would perform worse than Douglas in the North and worse than Breckinridge in the South (there's no way it ends up being a two-way race, and I suspect that Bell would perform better if he was the only favorite son in the race)

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

With the renomination of Buchanan/Breckinridge and a strongly pro-slavery platform, a faction of  Democrats supporting a popular sovereignty approach and thus calling themselves the "People's Democrats" nominate Sen. Stephen Douglas and Rep. John Bussing Haskin, and are able to win the support of a few state Democratic parties in the North.  The Constitutional Union Party nominates Sam Houston and Edward Everett, winning the support of those who see in Houston hope for a more unifying leader, as well as the formerly Whig communities of the South. Buchanan's is widely seen as a failure, and Lincoln takes the election, but with the PD and CU cutting slightly into the Republicans' more moderate support.

Fmr. Rep. Abraham Lincoln (R-IL) / Sen. Hannibal Hamlin (R-ME)  36%  172
Pres. James Buchanan (D-PA) / VP John Breckenridge (D-KY)        26%    68
Sen. Stephen Douglas (PD-IL) / Rep. John Bussing Haskin (PD-NY)  21%   7
Gov. Sam Houston (CU-TX)/ Fmr. Sen. Edward Everett (CU-MA)     17%    56