Can Democrats count on permanently high African-American turnout?

[Sol]

At least for the next 20+ years? It seems like they increasingly can, considering the way that voting in GA and NC has been going this year.

[Skill and Chance]

I think African-American turnout will remain comparable to white turnout for the foreseeable future.  Becoming a regular voter tends to be a permanent decision.  What may drift away from Dems over time is their margin among African-Americans. 

[eric82oslo]

I think so. The bigger question is what will happen with the Asian and Hispanic turnout in the near and midterm future. Will it remain as abysmally low as where it is today or will it slowly start to increase and at least cut the gap somewhat to the much higher black and white turnout? Hispanics have so much to gain from a higher turnout (immigration reform, fear of deportation for family and friends, higher minimum wage, social security, health care, education and a more human foreign policy main among these) and Asians are on average easily the best educated and highest earners of any demographic group, so I think these two factors will help both groups with increasing its turnouts over the span of the next 10-20-30 years. It will be a somewhat slow, yet inevitable process, I think.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Relevant article. Ignore the dumb headline.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/11/03/is-this-the-beginning-of-the-end-for-blacks-and-dems.html

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The trick for Democrats to get black turnout is to make blacks feel that their vote matters, and that if they vote their interests will be represented. This is true not only for black people, but for every voter. That's why turnout blew up from 105 million votes in the 2000 election to 122 million in 2004, to 131 million in 2008, and that 2012 stayed at 129 million.

When people feel that their vote matters, they will turnout. The Democrats did a phenomenal job in convincing black voters that their voices matter in 2012, 2008, and 1998, which is why they won. Having Bill Clinton (a "culturally black" President) and Obama (a half-black President) was a major motivating factor in convincing them of that. Now that he won't be on the ballot in 2016, the trick is for Democrats to convince blacks (and every other part of their coalition) that their vote matters in that election.

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"]

That article is incorrect when it says Clinton's popularity with blacks didn't transfer to Democrats that immediately followed -- Gore got 92% and a good turnout in 2000, helping to put away PA/MI, make FL a tossup, and give Democrats a five-seat gain in the Senate. The small shift to Bush is explained by 1) 9/11, like the rest of the electorate and 2) incumbency (the Bush team was able to shift money to black churches through the Office of Faith-Based Pork). That's a big flaw in the whole "Why can't the GOP go back to 2004-level support from minorities?" line -- that election was atypical.

[memphis]

I think African-American turnout will remain comparable to white turnout for the foreseeable future.  Becoming a regular voter tends to be a permanent decision.  What may drift away from Dems over time is their margin among African-Americans. 

You think non-negligible numbers of blacks are going to vote Republican? That's a....bold statement.

[Sol]

Well, pretty clearly not considering tonight.

[RedSLC]

Based on tonight's results:

NO.

[Likely Voter]

Actually the black vote has been fairly consistent recently and it started before Obama. Here is generic House Dem Vote and percent of voters for last 5 elections

          % voters / % Dem
2006   12   /   89
2008   13   /   93
2010   11   /   89
2012   13   /   91
2014   12   /   89

[hopper]

Maybe in select states like GA, and MI, where Atlanta, and Detroit  are in those states respectively but nationally no. Why? Because according to Pew Research Blacks will stay at their current population rate of making up 13% of the US Population in 2050 which is their population rate now of the US population.

Ohio for example Obama only beat Romney by 1% point with Black Turnout being at 15% but  Ohio's Black Population is only 12%. So still a tough state to hold for the Dems to win even with record Black Turnout in the state.

[hopper]

I think so. The bigger question is what will happen with the Asian and Hispanic turnout in the near and midterm future. Will it remain as abysmally low as where it is today or will it slowly start to increase and at least cut the gap somewhat to the much higher black and white turnout? Hispanics have so much to gain from a higher turnout (immigration reform, fear of deportation for family and friends, higher minimum wage, social security, health care, education and a more human foreign policy main among these) and Asians are on average easily the best educated and highest earners of any demographic group, so I think these two factors will help both groups with increasing its turnouts over the span of the next 10-20-30 years. It will be a somewhat slow, yet inevitable process, I think.

Asian Turnout was like 3% of the electorate in 2012 I think and they make up 5% of the US Population. That's not low turnout for an ethnic group in terms of what  % they make up of the US Population.

Hispanic turnout you have might have a point but some Hispanics are too young to vote or they are here illegally.

[Frodo]

Maybe in select states like GA, and MI, where Atlanta, and Detroit  are in those states respectively but nationally no. Why? Because according to Pew Research Blacks will stay at their current population rate of making up 13% of the US Population in 2050 which is their population rate now of the US population.

According to the US Census report, blacks are projected to slightly increase to 15% by 2060 as a proportion of the population.  Not a huge increase, but in close elections...  

[hopper]

At least for the next 20+ years? It seems like they increasingly can, considering the way that voting in GA and NC has been going this year.

No the Black Vote is not enough to push the Dems over the top in NC. Its the Asian and Hispanic Vote that put the Dems over the top in NC in 2008. Maybe even White Moderates push the Dems over the top in 2008 too in NC.

[hopper]

I forgot too the Black Vote is huge in Maryland.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The answer seems to be yes on Presidential years but not on Midterms.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The answer seems to be yes on Presidential years but not on Midterms.

I might add, that minority males didnt participate in last election.  Alot of them are disillusioned by the racial profiling still done to them by the police, which caused them not to vote.

However, Hilary has a unique opportunity to drive up the female vote all around despite this trend.

[Flake]

The answer seems to be yes on Presidential years but not on Midterms.

I might add, that minority males didnt participate in last election.  Alot of them are disillusioned by the racial profiling still done to them by the police, which caused them not to vote.

However, Hilary has a unique opportunity to drive up the female vote all around despite this trend.

what

[ElectionsGuy]

The answer seems to be yes on Presidential years but not on Midterms.

I might add, that minority males didnt participate in last election.  Alot of them are disillusioned by the racial profiling still done to them by the police, which caused them not to vote.

However, Hilary has a unique opportunity to drive up the female vote all around despite this trend.

what

OC's posts continue to be a work of art.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

LET ME REITERATE MY POST:

I was agreeing with above pollslter, that black turnout, especially in La senate race was not at its best.


But, in 2016, all females, regardless of race, will be enthusatic about candidacy about Hilary.

[Mister Mets]

A decline in turnout is pretty much certain without Obama on the ticket.

My guess is that black turnout will go back to being roughly what white turnout is (It's been slightly higher in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections).

[bobloblaw]

At least for the next 20+ years? It seems like they increasingly can, considering the way that voting in GA and NC has been going this year.

FAIL

[pbrower2a]

Barack Obama is probably the last African-American President for a very long time. We are more likely to see a(n)

Asian-American
female
Jewish
Italian-American
Polish-American
Scandinavian-American

or Latino
President than another African-American President.

Barack Obama has done nothing to hurt the chances of subsequent African-Americans; it's just that the circumstances that allowed him to become president will not be replicated. He's really a reject from the corrupt Chicago machine. The Chicago machine wanted him to go into the state legislature so that he would never prosecute any corrupt politician or contractor. Just imagine what havoc he might have been as a corruption-busting or syndicate-busting DA or judge, which is probably the ideal use of his talents. But he would probably wreck the careers of many corrupt Chicago pols.  Having a foreign-born father may be more unlikely than  being black for a President.

Most black politicians are either active in Southern states in which they are unlikely to win offices elected statewide (Tim Scott is an oddity in American politics, and he will never be elected President) or in big cities only to become unlikely to achieve a Governorship or a Senate seat. (OK, there was Douglas Wilder, Governor of Virginia, and he was really, really good... and the late Senator Ed Brooke). Big-city mayors do not get elected President even if they have certifiable ability as administrators. Is being a Governor of a small state more proof of ability than being the mayor of Los Angeles?


 

[Sol]

Cory Booker seems like a fairly likely future POTUS, IMO.

[Flake]

Cory Booker seems like a fairly likely future POTUS, IMO.

I'd definitely support Booker if he ran.

[ElectionsGuy]

Yes. Its been very consistent over the past 10-15 years. 85-95% of blacks vote Democrat and turnout stays roughly the same as white turnout. What they can't count on, however, is Latino turnout (usually horrendous in midterm years and OK at best in presidential years), and enough of the white vote for them to win. Not many people on the left recognize it, but they actually do have a problem with white voters. Especially in the Midwest, the white 'working class' people are increasingly Republican.