NV: Ralston's final predictions

[Miles]

Article.

Governor
Sandoval (R)- 73%
Goodman (D)- 22%

LG
Hutchison (R)- 56%
Flores (D)- 40%

AG
Miller (D)- 46%
Laxalt (R)- 44%


SOS
Marshall (D)- 48%
Cegavske (R)- 47%


CD3
Heck (R)- 55%
Bilbray (D)- 41%

CD4
Horsford (D)- 47%
Hardy (D)- 45%

In most races, he has third parties/NOTA in mid to high single-digits.

He's predicting a narrow 11/10 R Senate and 22/20 D Assembly.

[JerryArkansas]

If the poll holds true, I can't wait for the senate election in 2016.

[RogueBeaver]

^ Ralston said, as he's been saying for months in Sandoval's case, that neither Sandoval nor Heck are interested.

[JerryArkansas]

^ Ralston said, as he's been saying for months in Sandoval's case, that neither Sandoval nor Heck are interested.

Of course he's going to say that while running for reelection.  Two years in an eon in politics.

[Lief 🗽]

What a sh[inks] show. Embarrassing.  Hopefully Miller and Marshall hold on. Democrats should be looking to pick up the governor's mansion and the senate seat in 2018 and they'd be strong candidates.

[KCDem]

No way Sandoval breaks 70% lol

[Joe Republic]

Regarding 2016:

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[Flake]

Regarding 2016:

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Thank God. It would be a devastating loss if he ran.

[Joe Republic]

As I stated elsewhere, Sandoval's success on Tuesday comes only partly from his popularity, but also mainly from his complete absence of a real Democratic opponent running any kind of campaign.  Bob Goodman doesn't even bear the distinction of being called a 'sacrificial lamb', because that would imply that the NVDems even cared about the race in the first place.  Even Goodman himself has been a ghost.

[KCDem]

As I stated elsewhere, Sandoval's success on Tuesday comes only partly from his popularity, but also mainly from his complete absence of a real Democratic opponent running any kind of campaign.  Bob Goodman doesn't even bear the distinction of being called a 'sacrificial lamb', because that would imply that the NVDems even cared about the race in the first place.  Even Goodman himself has been a ghost.

Joe Republic, will Sandoval cross 70%?

[Maxwell]

I've seen nothing but bad press about Adam Laxalt. He must be riding that wave pretty hard.

[Joe Republic]

As I stated elsewhere, Sandoval's success on Tuesday comes only partly from his popularity, but also mainly from his complete absence of a real Democratic opponent running any kind of campaign.  Bob Goodman doesn't even bear the distinction of being called a 'sacrificial lamb', because that would imply that the NVDems even cared about the race in the first place.  Even Goodman himself has been a ghost.

Joe Republic, will Sandoval cross 70%?

Probably.  Upper 60's at minimum.

[KCDem]

As I stated elsewhere, Sandoval's success on Tuesday comes only partly from his popularity, but also mainly from his complete absence of a real Democratic opponent running any kind of campaign.  Bob Goodman doesn't even bear the distinction of being called a 'sacrificial lamb', because that would imply that the NVDems even cared about the race in the first place.  Even Goodman himself has been a ghost.

Joe Republic, will Sandoval cross 70%?

Probably.  Upper 60's at minimum.

Damn! That's insane! I would think the Dem floor + third parties would be at least 30%

[IceSpear]

I have a feeling the presence of NOTA will keep Sandoval a hair below 70%. Now this actually matters because of our prediction maps...

[Maxwell]

As I stated elsewhere, Sandoval's success on Tuesday comes only partly from his popularity, but also mainly from his complete absence of a real Democratic opponent running any kind of campaign.  Bob Goodman doesn't even bear the distinction of being called a 'sacrificial lamb', because that would imply that the NVDems even cared about the race in the first place.  Even Goodman himself has been a ghost.

Joe Republic, will Sandoval cross 70%?

Probably.  Upper 60's at minimum.

Damn! That's insane! I would think the Dem floor + third parties would be at least 30%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nevada_gubernatorial_election,_2002 - It's been 12 years, but Sandoval seems to have shaped himself as a moderate in the Kenny Guinn-mold.

[Joe Republic]

The thing about the 2002 comparison is that Guinn's Democratic opponent, Joe Neal, was a long-term state senator with deep establishment connections who actually fought a campaign during that election.  That's why Sandoval stands a good shot at beating Guinn's result and breaking the 70% mark.

[KCDem]

Eh still #Sandovalunder80 #Goodmanover20 #Demmentum

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

As I stated elsewhere, Sandoval's success on Tuesday comes only partly from his popularity, but also mainly from his complete absence of a real Democratic opponent running any kind of campaign.  Bob Goodman doesn't even bear the distinction of being called a 'sacrificial lamb', because that would imply that the NVDems even cared about the race in the first place.  Even Goodman himself has been a ghost.

Joe Republic, will Sandoval cross 70%?

Probably.  Upper 60's at minimum.

Damn! That's insane! I would think the Dem floor + third parties would be at least 30%

The problem is that two Democrats in Clark County is voting this year.

Well, obviously an extreme exaggeration, but in the Nevada political battles of Clark County vs. rest of state, Clark County not only didn't show up for battle, they didn't even get out of bed in the morning.

[Miles]

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[Lief 🗽]

We don't even have a bench anymore in a solid Obama state. What a joke.

[Joe Republic]

We don't even have a bench anymore in a solid Obama state. What a joke.

Naw, if there's one thing I've learned from compiling maps of NV's various elections from the last couple of decades, is that a loss doesn't write off your career, especially if you're still relatively young.  Look at John Ensign in 1998, or Dina Titus in 2006 or 2010.  This definitely isn't the end of Ross Miller.

[Maxwell]

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Wow. Incredible.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Laxalt versus Reid?