IA: Selzer: RIP Braley

[DrScholl]

Braley is closing strong and will win.

Take a long walk off of a short pier, okay? This poll isn't anything like what we've seen recently, so it's an outlier.

The only outlier is your own words.

No, look at the RCP average that you cherish so much, there hasn't been a poll with this wide of a spread in weeks.

Ernst is closing strong.

There has not been a Braley lead in the RCP average in months. Didn't stop you.

I'm not talking about the average itself, I'm talking about the listing of polls it shows and there hasn't been big of a lead for your girl Joni in weeks. Even the average itself isn't +7.

[Mr. Illini]

We'll never forget you, Brice!

[ElectionsGuy]

Oh gosh. Braley is going to be talked about for months as the Democrats' Mourdock or Akin.

[Tender Branson]

Looks like the Democrats will get clobbered on Tuesday.

I have now adjusted my predictions accordingly.

CO and IA are likely gone.

AK and KS may be winnable, but who knows ?

Only Shaheen and Hagan could survive.

[MR. KAYNE WEST]

AK or CO, or Ia may be winnable.

Win La or Ga gets to 50

Hopefully Begich and nunn both win on election night

[Ljube]

If this is true, even Hagan will be swept away by the wave. Only Shaheen could possibly survive.

[MR. KAYNE WEST]

Not a wave when you have someone like Brandstand helping Ernest, the weaker candidate. 

Hope remains AK, KS and La. Tillis is finished.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

A lot of people are going to look really stupid on Wednesday.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Not a wave when you have someone like Brandstand helping Ernest, the weaker candidate. 

Hope remains AK, KS and La. Tillis is finished.

Complete nonsense. People ticket split all over the place. Braley is just trash even more than Ernst. Let's see Susan Collins pull Paul LePage across the finish line. Not the same situation, but CO is likely to vote differently for Sen/Gov and the wonderful people of Mass are going to show us jyit how much an individual candidate matters. There are going to be many Braley-Branstad voters because of his popularity. His success has nothing to with Ernst's potential win. Coattails can only help a little down ballot due to turnout increases, but with high profile races, every candidate is their own person. You think people in Iowa are turning out to vote for Branstaf and this is an afterthought? They've been bombarded for 4 months of nonstop ads for this race. They are going to vote for Ernst and maybe for who they want to be representative. It's not like they check Branstad and go with his entire party.

[MR. KAYNE WEST]

Hatch was just as bad a candidate as Fitzgerald. Just as you can list cases, I can list mine.

Pryor losing and Ross
Durbin and Quinn winning.

It is more to do with an incompetetent candidate and Hatch was one.

[Bigby]

I doubt the lead is a 7 point one, but I believe they're correct in that she is definitely in the lead.

Buddy Borkey was an elitist prick anyway.

[krazen1211]

IA-03 candidate Staci Appel is trying to run away from Bailey.

[President von Cat]

Terrible candidate.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

I will not weep for the loss of Bailey, but I will weep for the gain of Ernst.

[Maistre]

Bruce Braley waving goodbye to his career prospects.

[Recalcuate]

Not a wave when you have someone like Brandstand helping Ernest, the weaker candidate. 

Hope remains AK, KS and La. Tillis is finished.

R+4, R+5, R+6, R+7, R+8, R+9 is a wave. A 55-45 Senate, which at best is Democrats at 49 or 50 is a wave. It's just a matter of how big the wave is and if the Republicans end up controlling the Senate.

Again, this is not unexpected in the six-year itch election cycle.

[President von Cat]

I knew it was probably over as soon as I heard that "farmer from Iowa" story. Just awful.

[Sbane]

Not a wave when you have someone like Brandstand helping Ernest, the weaker candidate. 

Hope remains AK, KS and La. Tillis is finished.

R+4, R+5, R+6, R+7, R+8, R+9 is a wave. A 55-45 Senate, which at best is Democrats at 49 or 50 is a wave. It's just a matter of how big the wave is and if the Republicans end up controlling the Senate.

Again, this is not unexpected in the six-year itch election cycle.

If the Republicans win all the Republican states but lose purple states like IA, CO and NC, is that really a wave. What does that portend for the Republicans in 2016? Only if NC and NH fall am I calling this a Republican wave. We would also see the Republicans win most of the tossups in the governors race and gain more than 10 seats in the house. I am not saying that isn't a possibility, but that is what a wave looks like. Republicans winning seats in AR, AK and LA isn't a wave.

[Tanden Blamed Bernie For The Rise of COVID]

Not a wave when you have someone like Brandstand helping Ernest, the weaker candidate. 

Hope remains AK, KS and La. Tillis is finished.

R+4, R+5, R+6, R+7, R+8, R+9 is a wave. A 55-45 Senate, which at best is Democrats at 49 or 50 is a wave. It's just a matter of how big the wave is and if the Republicans end up controlling the Senate.

Again, this is not unexpected in the six-year itch election cycle.

R+4 isn't a wave. It's an expected result.

WV was gone even if J-Rock stayed in. SD was gone the moment Sandlin ruled herself out. MT was gone the moment Walsh got busted for plagiarism. And there's way too much going on for Democrats to defend AR (which is heading towards being gone), LA, IA, CO, and AK.

[Free Bird]

Bruce Braley waving goodbye to his career prospects.

Who?

[Recalcuate]

Not a wave when you have someone like Brandstand helping Ernest, the weaker candidate.  

Hope remains AK, KS and La. Tillis is finished.

R+4, R+5, R+6, R+7, R+8, R+9 is a wave. A 55-45 Senate, which at best is Democrats at 49 or 50 is a wave. It's just a matter of how big the wave is and if the Republicans end up controlling the Senate.

Again, this is not unexpected in the six-year itch election cycle.

If the Republicans win all the Republican states but lose purple states like IA, CO and NC, is that really a wave. What does that portend for the Republicans in 2016? Only if NC and NH fall am I calling this a Republican wave. We would also see the Republicans win most of the tossups in the governors race and gain more than 10 seats in the house. I am not saying that isn't a possibility, but that is what a wave looks like. Republicans winning seats in AR, AK and LA isn't a wave.

Nonsense.

The Democrats controlled the Senate by a 55-45 margin.

There were 21 Democrat seats up for grabs this cycle and 15 Republican.

If the polling stands (throwing tossups the way they are dispersed right now in the polling), this class will shift to 22R, 13D, 1 I.

Of course it's a wave. Even at R+4, Democrats go from a 21-15 to 17-18-1 in this cycle. And as the Times pointed out, right now, it's more likely to be an R+9 election than a R+4 or R+5 where the Senate remains in Democrat control.

In the worst case scenario it's 55-45 D to 54-46 R is a tsunami.  (Assuming Shaheen holds on).

As far as the House goes, a gain of 6-14 seats would likely by the max of Republican possible gains this cycle. Republicans pretty much have as much turf as they possibly can, except in marginal districts in blue states (like MA-6, NY-1, NY-24 with GA-12 being an exception).

[Recalcuate]

Not a wave when you have someone like Brandstand helping Ernest, the weaker candidate.  

Hope remains AK, KS and La. Tillis is finished.

R+4, R+5, R+6, R+7, R+8, R+9 is a wave. A 55-45 Senate, which at best is Democrats at 49 or 50 is a wave. It's just a matter of how big the wave is and if the Republicans end up controlling the Senate.

Again, this is not unexpected in the six-year itch election cycle.

If the Republicans win all the Republican states but lose purple states like IA, CO and NC, is that really a wave. What does that portend for the Republicans in 2016? Only if NC and NH fall am I calling this a Republican wave. We would also see the Republicans win most of the tossups in the governors race and gain more than 10 seats in the house. I am not saying that isn't a possibility, but that is what a wave looks like. Republicans winning seats in AR, AK and LA isn't a wave.

Nonsense.

The Democrats controlled the Senate by a 55-45 margin.

There were 21 Democrat seats up for grabs this cycle and 15 Republican.

If the polling stands (throwing tossups the way they are dispersed right now in the polling), this class will shift to 22R, 13D, 1 I.

Of course it's a wave. Even at R+4, Democrats go from a 21-15 to 17-18-1 in this cycle. And as the Times pointed out, right now, it's more likely to be an R+9 election than a R+4 or R+5 where the Senate remains in Democrat control.

In the worst case scenario 55-45 D to 54-46 R is a tsunami.

As far as the House goes, a gain of 6-14 seats would likely be the max of Republican possible gains this cycle. Republicans pretty much have as much turf as they possibly can, except in marginal districts in blue states (like MA-6, NY-1, NY-24 with GA-12 and UT-4 being an exception).

[Miles]

In the worst case scenario 55-45 D to 54-46 R is a tsunami.

Even more reason to suspend these elections until 2016.

[MR. KAYNE WEST]

 It will be a net 5 seat GOP gain or 4 with Orman. Begich or Udall wins and we seize Ga making Orman 51sr vote.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

If you put these seats in context, I don't see how you could realistically call R+4 a wave.

I mean, you are, but I disagree that it is.