2014 US Congressional Election Results

[Vega]

I'm glad that the Democrats finally got NE-02. Seems like all the hype about the ND-AL race fizzled out. Sinner lost by alot.

[Holmes]

Well, looking at the NYT House map (great utility that, but notice if you look at the NYT front page today, just how bitchy that "pinko rag" is about the Pub sweep, aka "anger sweeps the land, as the Pubs cash in on hate" as it were?), the Pubs have picked up 13 seats, and will win WA-04, CA-07, ME-02 and the two LA runoff seats, netting an 18 seat gain in the House. The Dems pick up ground as the votes are counted over the ensuing weeks in CA, so the Dems are going to hold CA-52 most probably , along with CA-16 and CA-26. And Barber will hold on in AZ-02, which is kind of a surprise to me, because McSally was an excellent candidate. I suspect Kirkpatrick did so well in AZ-01 due to a heavy Native American vote, which she cultivated assiduously. Good for her!

All a most surprising outcome - a near Pub wave, which as per usual peters out as one gets near the left coast. Well, perhaps not totally surprising to some (hi there Lief), but I digress.

Why are you sad that a sexual predator might lose in CA-52?

[Torie]

Oh, I made my comments on the Pub disappointment thread about CA-52.  I really didn't follow the sexual harassment charges and counter charges going back and forth, and have no opinion about that. If he engaged in that activity, he should be sued, or be prosecuted if serious enough.  But he denies it all is my impression.

[J. J.]

An 18 seat gain in the House and 9 seats in the Senate would be a rout.  I'm still a bit skeptical it will happen. 

[jimrtex]

Ann Kirkpatrick up 53.4%-46.8% in AZ-1.  Wow.  And Barber down 36 votes in AZ-2. 

AZ-2

The early voting counting machine broke in Cochise County, and the ballots are being moved to Graham County to be counted.

Barber carried Pima County 52%-48%
McSalley is up better than 2:1 in Cochise.

Pima turnout was 60% of 2012.
Coshise turnout (counted) is 25% of 2012.

[5280]

So is AZ-2 going to be another recount?  Seems like a never ending battle.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Torie, what makes you think Barber will pull AZ-2 out?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If anyone wishes to find a silver lining to clutch to pathetically, MN-8 is a genuine relief. That was one of the worst moments of 2010.

Indeed, especially as Nolan and the DCCC ran awful campaigns. Mills was a bad candidate and a horrendous fit for the district, but they managed to actually make him sympathetic. Here's some info: http://www.mprnews.org/story/2014/10/22/anti-mills-ads-backfire

The theme of the ads and the point that Mills is a millionaire out to improve things for himself like Romney is a good talking point, but the ads portrayed this terribly. The last DCCC one which I was seeing constantly had a fairly condescending tone along the lines of "Don't vote for Stewart Mills. Like seriously, don't, it's not a good idea, trust us, he's not for you." akin to that of a parent telling their kid they shouldn't hang out with this other kid who's "bad news".

[Torie]

Torie, what makes you think Barber will pull AZ-2 out?

Late counted votes, provisionals, and so forth, tend to lean Dem, typically lower SES voters. But my statement was made before Jimtex said a bunch of votes had not been counted in Cochise, which is the Pub stronghold of the CD. So Barber is probably going down, making the Pub gain 19 seats, and if the gay guy somehow manages to win in CA-52 (unlikely but possible), that will make for an even score - the result I characterized would be a big surprise, but not totally shocking to me.  I perceived that the Dem turnout would suck, and in most places it did.

[rob in cal]

More funny outcomes, McConell with a better victory margin than Booker.

[rob in cal]

Do we really know that Sarvis the Libertarian "took" votes from Gillespie.  His support levels were just as strong, or stronger in areas won by Warner, FWIW.

[Maxwell]

Compared to some of his other colleagues, Booker performed rather solidly (Franken, Durbin, T. Udall). Looks like he's no longer "underperformin Cory"

[Miles]

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[KCDem]

It's pretty incredible what states the tsunami hit and which it didn't. I think this is more of an indication of disastrous turnout rather than swinge in the electorate.

[Vega]

I'm glad Terry is conceding. Let us have our 2nd pickup.

[Mehmentum]

Do we really know that Sarvis the Libertarian "took" votes from Gillespie.  His support levels were just as strong, or stronger in areas won by Warner, FWIW.

He got 10% of the 18 - 29 age group, which is normally heavily Democratic.  I suspect that if these people thought the race would be close (pretty much everyone was expecting a blowout), they may have voted for Warner.

[Miles]

Cotton carried AR-02 53/47. Yikes.

[Maistre]

What are we waiting for from AK?

[RI]

Did anyone else notice how poorly Childers did in the Mississippi Delta?

What are we waiting for from AK?

Absentee ballots.

[jimrtex]

Torie, what makes you think Barber will pull AZ-2 out?

Late counted votes, provisionals, and so forth, tend to lean Dem, typically lower SES voters. But my statement was made before Jimtex said a bunch of votes had not been counted in Cochise, which is the Pub stronghold of the CD. So Barber is probably going down, making the Pub gain 19 seats, and if the gay guy somehow manages to win in CA-52 (unlikely but possible), that will make for an even score - the result I characterized would be a big surprise, but not totally shocking to me.  I perceived that the Dem turnout would suck, and in most places it did.

A majority of votes in Arizona in 2012 were by mail, and is likely to be even higher by the passage of time.

In 2012, Barber won the early voting, and is doing so in 2014.  McSally received 60% of the election day votes yesterday.   So she might not match her 2/3 support in Cochise on election day, but should still roll up a few thousand vote margin.   Arizona requires receipt of mail ballots by election day, so voters as early as last Wednesday were urged to walk their ballots to a polling place.

The news on Cochise County was from their elections web site.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I'm glad Terry is conceding. Let us have our 2nd pickup.

Obama still has his magic in NE-02? LOL.

[Matty]

Begich being a bitch and not conceding. Even dems on twitter are calling him out.

[njwes]

Compared to some of his other colleagues, Booker performed rather solidly (Franken, Durbin, T. Udall). Looks like he's no longer "underperformin Cory"

I guess, but they were against B- and C-list Republicans. Jeff Bell was a D-list also-ran has-been. I'm so embarrassed that the NJ GOP chose him; just like the special election last year, a missed opportunity.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Begich being a bitch and not conceding. Even dems on twitter are calling him out.

Oh god.

[cinyc]

Begich being a bitch and not conceding. Even dems on twitter are calling him out.

I wouldn't concede if I were Begich, either.  He's leading the early vote that's in so far, and more of it is still out.  I doubt there are enough votes outstanding for Begich to win, but why concede until all the votes have been counted?