2014 US Congressional Election Results

[ElectionsGuy]

What in the world is going on in CA-16? Its D+8!

[cinyc]

Alaska Update almost 2/3 in.

UNITED STATES SENATOR      
Total
Number of Precincts      441   
Precincts Reporting      289   65.5%
Times Counted      178060/509011   35.0%
Total Votes      176419   
Begich, Mark   DEM   78218   44.34%
Fish, Mark S.   LIB   6300   3.57%
Gianoutsos, Ted   NA   3393   1.92%
Sullivan, Dan   REP   87711   49.72%
Write-in Votes      797   0.45%

Kenai all in.  SE 95% in.  Fairbanks 94% in.  Mat-Su 78% in.  Kodiak-based HD 71% in. State 65.5% in.  Anchorage 64% in. Bush 43% in.

[Ljube]

Looks like polls in Alaska (besides Ivan Moore and Hellenthal of course) were pretty good this time. No strong pro-D or pro-incumbent bias.

Both Ivan Moore and particularly Hellenthal had a very small, I dare say, skewed sample.

[Recalcuate]

AK - At Large called for Young by RCP. Bringing the Republicans to 239 (plus the two shoe in seats in LA for 241).

Current Race is Young +10

US REPRESENTATIVE      
Total
Number of Precincts      441   
Precincts Reporting      289   65.5%
Times Counted      178060/509011   35.0%
Total Votes      174806   
Dunbar, Forrest   DEM   71316   40.80%
McDermott, Jim C.   LIB   13219   7.56%
Young, Don   REP   89517   51.21%
Write-in Votes      754   0.43%

[cinyc]

AOSHQDD calls Alaska for Sullivan.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

It certainly wasn't a good night for the Nunn family, but down in Florida, another former Democratic Senator, that is Bob Graham, has reasons to celebrate with his daughter capturing the 2nd congressional district.

[Recalcuate]

Alaska update almost 3/4 of the vote in. Sullivan +6.

UNITED STATES SENATOR      
Total
Number of Precincts      441   
Precincts Reporting      325   73.7%
Times Counted      195234/509011   38.4%
Total Votes      193436   
Begich, Mark   DEM   85259   44.08%
Fish, Mark S.   LIB   6964   3.60%
Gianoutsos, Ted   NA   3774   1.95%
Sullivan, Dan   REP   96563   49.92%
Write-in Votes      876   0.45%

[Recalcuate]

AOSHQDD calls Alaska for Sullivan.

There's about 3/4 of the vote in, Sullivan roughly +6. The math is getting very difficult for the Democrat. I am sure the other media outlets will follow suit shortly.

[cinyc]

Alaska update almost 3/4 of the vote in. Sullivan +6.

UNITED STATES SENATOR      
Total
Number of Precincts      441   
Precincts Reporting      325   73.7%
Times Counted      195234/509011   38.4%
Total Votes      193436   
Begich, Mark   DEM   85259   44.08%
Fish, Mark S.   LIB   6964   3.60%
Gianoutsos, Ted   NA   3774   1.95%
Sullivan, Dan   REP   96563   49.92%
Write-in Votes      876   0.45%

Mainly heavily-R Mat-Su in that dump.  Kenai and Fairbanks all in.  SE at 95%.  Mat-Su at 90%. Anchorage at 75%.  Statewide at 73.7%.  Kodiak-based HD at 71%.  Bush at 52%,

[publicunofficial]

What in the world is going on in CA-16? Its D+8!

Turns out a district sandwiched between CA-10 and CA-21 gives Democrats the same problem that they suffer there. Latino turnout is abysmal.

Also Jim Costa, like Dan Maffei, is an unneeded Blue Dog who clung to the middle so closely that he has pleased no one. He's also a massive energy company shill, so good riddance if he loses.

At this point, the Democrats have lost so much that losing Costa is all positive to me.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     More votes come in and the margin remains roughly the same. Looking pretty grim for Begich.

[cinyc]

AOSHQDD calls Alaska for Sullivan.

There's about 3/4 of the vote in, Sullivan roughly +6. The math is getting very difficult for the Democrat. I am sure the other media outlets will follow suit shortly.

The problems for making any call is that there is no precinct-level data yet, the Bush is still out, and the early vote, which might not yet be fully counted, usually trends Democratic. 

But the fat lady is certainly warming up.

[Sol]

     More votes come in and the margin remains roughly the same. Looking pretty grim for Begich.

The Evil Ones gain another member of their America Asssassination Squad.

[Free Bird]

OC, where aaarrreeee you?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

What in the world is going on in CA-16? Its D+8!

Turns out a district sandwiched between CA-10 and CA-21 gives Democrats the same problem that they suffer there. Latino turnout is abysmal.

Also Jim Costa, like Dan Maffei, is an unneeded Blue Dog who clung to the middle so closely that he has pleased no one. He's also a massive energy company shill, so good riddance if he loses.

At this point, the Democrats have lost so much that losing Costa is all positive to me.

California turnout among votes counted on election day is always abysmal.

[Boston Bread]

Few races were close in the end. NH, VA, NC, maybe AK. Beyond that it's 5+ point wins. Similar to 2012 with opposite parties actually. Many house seats were tight though, since Democrats over performed in swing districts relative to blue districts, while doing terrible in both, making both types of seat close.

[Maxwell]

     More votes come in and the margin remains roughly the same. Looking pretty grim for Begich.

The Evil Ones gain another member of their America Asssassination Squad.

Golly, you guys should be in dramatic theater!

[Associate Justice PiT]

     More votes come in and the margin remains roughly the same. Looking pretty grim for Begich.

The Evil Ones gain another member of their America Asssassination Squad.

     I proposed that name at the recent Evil Ones meeting. I'm glad to see it catching on.

[IceSpear]

Another lesson from this election: Don't read too much into early voting. Or exit polls.

[Recalcuate]

Alaska Senate Update 76% in

UNITED STATES SENATOR      
Total
Number of Precincts      441   
Precincts Reporting      344   78.0%
Times Counted      200587/509011   39.4%
Total Votes      198743   
Begich, Mark   DEM   87932   44.24%
Fish, Mark S.   LIB   7139   3.59%
Gianoutsos, Ted   NA   3864   1.94%
Sullivan, Dan   REP   98916   49.77%
Write-in Votes      892   0.45%

[cinyc]

Alaska Senate Update 76% in

UNITED STATES SENATOR      
Total
Number of Precincts      441   
Precincts Reporting      344   78.0%
Times Counted      200587/509011   39.4%
Total Votes      198743   
Begich, Mark   DEM   87932   44.24%
Fish, Mark S.   LIB   7139   3.59%
Gianoutsos, Ted   NA   3864   1.94%
Sullivan, Dan   REP   98916   49.77%
Write-in Votes      892   0.45%

Anchorage and Bush votes.  Anchorage up to 82%.  Bush up to 58%.  Mat-Su remains at 90%.  One of the Kodiak-based HD precincts reported, too.

[publicunofficial]

Few races were close in the end. NH, VA, NC, maybe AK. Beyond that it's 5+ point wins. Similar to 2012 with opposite parties actually. Many house seats were tight though, since Democrats over performed in swing districts relative to blue districts, while doing terrible in both, making both types of seat close.

I think one silver lining is that unlike with most waves, most of the elections Democrats ended up loosing were decently close, especially in the House.


UT-04, IA-01, NH-01, TX-23, IL-10, FL-26 and likely CA-16, CA-07, CA-52, NV-04, and AZ-02 all had Democratic candidates loosing with 48% or less. ME-02, NY-01, GA-12, WV-02, and CO-06 were also decently close contests. Unlike 2010, we have a good chance at winning back a lot of these seats in 2016. We might even get 2nd chances in seats like FL-13, CA-25, CA-10, CA-21, VA-10, and IA-03.

[publicunofficial]

McSally is now ahead of Barber by less than 100 votes.

[IceSpear]

Looks like Delaney will pull it out. 50-49 with 100% in. Truly crazy it was so close. Ashford ahead 48-46 in NE-02 with 80% in.

[Free Bird]

I just realized. Sarvis spoiled... again