2014 US Congressional Election Results
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  2014 US Congressional Election Results
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Author Topic: 2014 US Congressional Election Results  (Read 189226 times)
Beagle
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« Reply #1050 on: November 05, 2014, 12:44:20 AM »

Considering the size of the wave, Gary Peters must really be an amazing retail politician. He's currently running ahead of Franken and Durbin (!) in the margins.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #1051 on: November 05, 2014, 12:44:23 AM »

Last guesses on Alaska?
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #1052 on: November 05, 2014, 12:44:29 AM »

In unrelated, Eastern news, Kathleen Rice has received a checkmark. Will Hurd is leading Pete Gallego 50-47 with 85% in; bar something unexpected, Hurd should be called as the winner soon. Most too-close-to-call races left east of the Four Corners are either very slow counters: in ME-2, with 49% in, Poliquin leads 46-43; in NE-2, with 62% in, Ashford leads 49-46; and in MN-8, with 61% reporting, Nolan leads 49-47; headed for an acrimonious recount, which would be NY-18 and NY-25; and places where what's left will cut the lead down strongly, so MD-6, where Bongino leads 50-48 but what's out is strongly Democratic. Those six are all that's left east of the Four Corners (excepting TX-23, which to me looks like it'll be getting a checkmark any minute now). West of the Four Corners, there are still lots of things which are unclear.

What's the House shift looking like about R+10 or maybe more?
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Flake
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« Reply #1053 on: November 05, 2014, 12:45:40 AM »

So can we officially say Love lost because of racism? Or did the Dem guy just outwork/outconnect her?

Did Brown just lose in very liberal Maryland because of racism?

You do realize that in mormon religion this is in it.

There's a reason Love lost, and it's not because Owen is a good candidate.
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Vosem
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« Reply #1054 on: November 05, 2014, 12:46:25 AM »

It's R+10 right now. TX-23 will make it R+11. There'll definitely be at least a few pickups in CA, but most of the uncalled Easterns look like they'll break Democratic, except ME-2. R+mid teens will be the final result; Walden will definitely exceed his goal of 245. 250 looks possible but unlikely.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #1055 on: November 05, 2014, 12:46:52 AM »

For UT-04, it looks like only Salt Lake County is left to count. Oh lord.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1056 on: November 05, 2014, 12:47:09 AM »

Considering the size of the wave, Gary Peters must really be an amazing retail politician. He's currently running ahead of Franken and Durbin (!) in the margins.

Franken and Durbin didn't have Terri Lynn Land as their opponent.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #1057 on: November 05, 2014, 12:47:50 AM »

Sullivan duh!

But if Begich can pull a reverse Corey Gardner, I'm going to have a lot of morbid laughter as I now hold for Tom Wolf's victory. Sort of like what I once would've had if McConnell had actually been ousted from this
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #1058 on: November 05, 2014, 12:48:51 AM »

It's R+10 right now. TX-23 will make it R+11. There'll definitely be at least a few pickups in CA, but most of the uncalled Easterns look like they'll break Democratic, except ME-2. R+mid teens will be the final result; Walden will definitely exceed his goal of 245. 250 looks possible but unlikely.

Well past expectations as well.

Amazing how Louise Slaughter almost lost in NY-25.
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jfern
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« Reply #1059 on: November 05, 2014, 12:49:20 AM »

Maffei did the tried and true tactic of having a typical Blue Dog voting record, and then losing a D+5 district by 18 points. Good riddance to that worthless trash.

That's the big silver lining here.  Enough with the Blue Dogs and their pandering to the right.  Be gone with ye!

It's like they never learned from all the other worthless Blue Dogs losing.
Meanwhile reasonably liberal Yarmuth wins a D+4 district by 28 points.
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Torie
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« Reply #1060 on: November 05, 2014, 12:49:52 AM »
« Edited: November 05, 2014, 12:51:26 AM by Torie »

Vosem, you need to stop projecting CA from absentee ballot tallies (and that is all that has been counted, and will be counted for another hour at least). Costa for example will win rather easily. Hispanics don't vote much absentee.

I'm tryna work with what I got, Torie. And Costa has a lead of 220 votes: even if Election Day returns favor him and he wins, this is a seat that was universally thought Safe D where the incumbent is getting quite the scare.

What do you think the absentee results say?

Absentees have a big Pub lean in low SES CD's (particularly ones with a high percentage of Hispanics), less so in high ones, none in say the West LA CD . The CA-26 numbers are however rather shocking. That one does look like a Pub pickup. There are a lot of today votes counted in CA-07, and that one is skin tight.

My wild guess is that the Pubs will net about 15 seats in the House.
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Vosem
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« Reply #1061 on: November 05, 2014, 12:50:15 AM »

UT-4 is doing everything backwards; they had 88% reporting 20 minutes ago and now they're down to 10%. Owens is leading 50-47. With those numbers, Love could actually still win this in non-embarrassing fashion. This was a bigger overreaction than when we thought a Libertarian was knocking off Andre Carson (who beat the Republican 55-42; seems like an underperformance, but Democrats were routinely held to single-digits in this district's predecessor, including in 2006, so I'd say Carson actually did pretty well).
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The Free North
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« Reply #1062 on: November 05, 2014, 12:51:06 AM »

Maffei did the tried and true tactic of having a typical Blue Dog voting record, and then losing a D+5 district by 18 points. Good riddance to that worthless trash.

His ads were also centered on the fact that his opponent left a loaded gun in his car which was then coincidently used in a shooting later on.

Its surprising to say the least since that district includes Syracuse and Maffei ran a pretty standard democratic campaign with a huge focus on women's issues
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SPC
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« Reply #1063 on: November 05, 2014, 12:51:13 AM »


Sullivan 56%, Begich 41%
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Vosem
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« Reply #1064 on: November 05, 2014, 12:52:35 AM »
« Edited: November 05, 2014, 12:55:53 AM by Vosem »

It's R+10 right now. TX-23 will make it R+11. There'll definitely be at least a few pickups in CA, but most of the uncalled Easterns look like they'll break Democratic, except ME-2. R+mid teens will be the final result; Walden will definitely exceed his goal of 245. 250 looks possible but unlikely.

Well past expectations as well.

Amazing how Louise Slaughter almost lost in NY-25.

With 100% in, she leads by 582 votes. If late votes break to Assini, or if there is a recount, Assini could still win, which would be freaking amazing. We actually had a touted candidate here in 2012 in Maggie Brooks, as opposed to Assini who is a no-name; Brooks got crushed by 14 points, but I think if she'd decided to run again she would certainly have beaten Slaughter this year.

EDIT: In western news, my accounts of Brownley's demise were exaggerated. The district just jumped from just-absentees to 42% reporting, and Brownley has gone from a 24-point deficit to a 206-vote lead. Looks like this one will go down the wire. On present numbers, the only seat that's flipping in CA would be DeMaio beating Peters, as Chabot is maintaining a narrow lead over Aguilar -- both are absentee only, though. With 41% reporting, Costa has also taken a lead...of seventeen votes. Amazing.
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J. J.
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« Reply #1065 on: November 05, 2014, 12:52:54 AM »

Fox is projecting a minimum of a 12 seat gain in the House; this would tie the post WW II numbers.  If so, it will be a route. 
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KCDem
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« Reply #1066 on: November 05, 2014, 12:56:11 AM »

Looks like Pryor will win get less than 40%. So maybe he is Blanche Lincoln Tongue
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Vosem
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« Reply #1067 on: November 05, 2014, 12:58:31 AM »

Strange in New York: with 100% reporting, Kathleen Rice has a lead of 64-36 over Bruce Blakeman. I don't doubt she's won, but the lead was switching back and forth here and when last I checked, with reporting %s somewhere in the 90s, Rice had 53% of the vote. Mistake?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1068 on: November 05, 2014, 12:58:52 AM »

It's pretty amazing that Shaheen and Gwen Graham were able to survive this wave.
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KCDem
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« Reply #1069 on: November 05, 2014, 01:00:14 AM »

Nunn is at 45% now...she's only doing 1 point worse than Anthony Brown Wink
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cinyc
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« Reply #1070 on: November 05, 2014, 01:00:45 AM »

First Alaska results:

2014 GENERAL ELECTION
November 4, 2014
Unofficial Results
Date:11/04/14
Time:20:52:45
Page:1 of 8
Registered Voters 509011 - Cards Cast 70425 13.84%
Num. Report Precinct 441 - Num. Reporting 101 22.90%
UNITED STATES SENATOR
Total
Number of Precincts
441
Precincts Reporting
101
22.9 %
Times Counted
70425/509011
13.8 %
Total Votes
69739
Begich, Mark
DEM 30816 44.19%
Fish, Mark S.
LIB 2544 3.65%
Gianoutsos, Ted
NA 1394 2.00%
Sullivan, Dan
REP 34649 49.68%
Write-in Votes
336
0.48%
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Smash255
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« Reply #1071 on: November 05, 2014, 01:01:07 AM »

Strange in New York: with 100% reporting, Kathleen Rice has a lead of 64-36 over Bruce Blakeman. I don't doubt she's won, but the lead was switching back and forth here and when last I checked, with reporting %s somewhere in the 90s, Rice had 53% of the vote. Mistake?

Yes,  she has 85,294 according to the Nassau County BOE  52.66-47.24  .1 write in
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jfern
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« Reply #1072 on: November 05, 2014, 01:01:56 AM »

Looks like Pryor will win get less than 40%. So maybe he is Blanche Lincoln Tongue

Wow, the polls were off there. It had been considered competitive until recently, and still it seemed like he was going to lose by high single digits. I'm think Arkansas may be unwinnable for the Democrats. And yes, that includes Hillary.


It's pretty amazing that Shaheen and Gwen Graham were able to survive this wave.

Doug Owens would be impressive if he wins.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #1073 on: November 05, 2014, 01:02:34 AM »

UT-04 seems a little screwy, but CNN says Love has a 1 point lead now with 18% (?) reporting after they just had 80+% reporting.
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jfern
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« Reply #1074 on: November 05, 2014, 01:02:51 AM »

Sullivan up 49-46 in exit poll. Sad I think it's R+8 tonight, with LA being a likely 9th next month.
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