IA-Ipsos: Deadlocked
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Author Topic: IA-Ipsos: Deadlocked  (Read 2460 times)
IceSpear
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« on: October 30, 2014, 11:14:17 PM »

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/31/us-usa-elections-iowa-idUSKBN0IK00N20141031?feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews

Braley 45
Ernst 45

Stupendous news! Looks like Ernst will soon be going the way of Bailey's neighbors' chickens.
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Illuminati Blood Drinker
phwezer
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« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2014, 11:15:14 PM »

How good is Ipsos? I'll wait for another (decent) pollster to confirm this.
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KCDem
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« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2014, 11:16:16 PM »

Glorious news! Ernst is toast!
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Panda Express
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« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2014, 11:16:40 PM »

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Boston Bread
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« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2014, 11:17:26 PM »

I don't take a tie as great news. PPP with Bailey up outside the MOE will be.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2014, 11:18:15 PM »

When a tie with a veritable fruit-cake is a good thing... ugh.

But it's still positive, will definitely want more verification before I see it as more than white noise.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2014, 11:18:21 PM »

Hopefully Ernst finds some of those chickens Bailey chased out of his yard to trade for checkups, because she'll soon be unemployed.
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morgieb
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« Reply #7 on: October 30, 2014, 11:18:35 PM »

How good is Ipsos? I'll wait for another (decent) pollster to confirm this.
According to Fairfax (Australian newspaper who are now hiring Ipsos for Australian polling - Ipsos are an international firm rather than just an American one), "Ipsosí 2008 US presidential poll was regarded as the most accurate of the 22 covering the election that brought Barack Obama to power".

So you can't completely toss it in the junk.
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urban moving systems=smoking gun
freepcrusher
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« Reply #8 on: October 30, 2014, 11:18:59 PM »

This is a tragedy. Braley is a professional while Ernst is a full-on prole, almost a caricature really. If this was a house race (like the battle of mediocrities that is IA-03) it wouldn't be a big deal. But this is a six year deal. If Ernst entrenches herself like Grassley, it may take desperate measures (plant black tar heroin in her office) to get rid of her.
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morgieb
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« Reply #9 on: October 30, 2014, 11:19:34 PM »

But yes, I'm still waiting for PPP.
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Matty
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« Reply #10 on: October 30, 2014, 11:22:37 PM »

Does Ipsos have a ridiculous republican bias?
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cinyc
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« Reply #11 on: October 30, 2014, 11:25:42 PM »

From the last paragraph of the linked article:
Quote
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So whatever you think of YouGov's polls should probably apply here.  Personally, I see Internet polling as the wave of the future and don't discount it.
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KCDem
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« Reply #12 on: October 30, 2014, 11:26:04 PM »

Does Ipsos have a ridiculous republican bias?

That's irrelevant. Ernst cannot win.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #13 on: October 30, 2014, 11:27:21 PM »

I remember Ipsos(-Reid) in my province was an epic fail. Not relevant, I know Tongue
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IceSpear
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« Reply #14 on: October 30, 2014, 11:30:04 PM »

From the last paragraph of the linked article:
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So whatever you think of YouGov's polls should probably apply here.  Personally, I see Internet polling as the wave of the future and don't discount it.

The reason YouGov is discounted is because they poll the same people over and over again (therefore, not a random sample). As far as I know, Ipsos has never polled this race before, so it isn't a problem.
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KCDem
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« Reply #15 on: October 30, 2014, 11:30:37 PM »

From the last paragraph of the linked article:
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So whatever you think of YouGov's polls should probably apply here.  Personally, I see Internet polling as the wave of the future and don't discount it.

Yougov isn't junk because they poll online, but because they poll the same people over and over again.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #16 on: October 30, 2014, 11:32:16 PM »

Bruce has got the juice. He will prevail on Tuesday.
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Lief 🐋
Lief
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« Reply #17 on: October 31, 2014, 12:23:55 AM »

Interesting. Could the Democrats be making a final last stand?
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #18 on: October 31, 2014, 12:59:42 AM »

Interesting. Could the Democrats be making a final last stand?

I'd like to see the internals and crosstabs of this internet poll before making any determination on that. Either they do these type of internet polls right and are reputable or they are wrought with errors like the You Gov process, which seems not quite perfected.

You'd think internet polls would skew younger and would thus be more favorable to the Democrats, just like land line only polls would skew older and more Republican.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #19 on: October 31, 2014, 01:53:40 AM »

I remain pretty weary of online polls. They may be the wave of future but I'm not sure that the future is here yet.

Still, this is good to see. This one is obviously going to be super close.
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JRP1994
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« Reply #20 on: October 31, 2014, 06:31:13 AM »

Well look at that... Braswell Brentley is making a last stand after all.
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Mehmentum
Icefire9
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« Reply #21 on: October 31, 2014, 10:08:54 AM »

Colorado is gone for us, but Iowa is still in play!
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Stay out of Georgia
20RP12
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« Reply #22 on: October 31, 2014, 10:42:15 AM »

Colorado is gone for us, but Iowa is still in play!

Don't give up yet.
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #23 on: October 31, 2014, 11:12:58 AM »

Colorado is gone for us, but Iowa is still in play!

Iowa has never not really been out of play for the Democrats. The polling has shown Ernest generally with a slight lead. It will probably be the closest non-runoff state on Election Day.
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backtored
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« Reply #24 on: October 31, 2014, 11:35:02 AM »

Rassy has Ernst up one. This and North Carolina could be the tightest races of the night.
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