NC; PPP: Hagan only up one
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Author Topic: NC; PPP: Hagan only up one  (Read 3042 times)
Marston
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« on: October 30, 2014, 01:16:29 PM »
« edited: October 30, 2014, 01:18:15 PM by Marston »

47-46 for LCV

http://www.lcv.org/assets/pdf/nc-senate-poll-10-30-14.pdf
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Miles
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« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2014, 01:18:18 PM »

The report.
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JRP1994
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« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2014, 01:20:05 PM »

Only +1 in a poll for LCV? This is good news for Tillis.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2014, 01:20:16 PM »

Come on Kay, you can do it!
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2014, 01:21:47 PM »


If that's the best PPP/LCV (D) can do, things will be interesting in NC on Election Day. It's still Hagan's race to lose.
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KCDem
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« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2014, 01:22:50 PM »

Complete junk just like their Colorado poll.
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Marston
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« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2014, 01:23:45 PM »

The supposition that PPP polls for the LCV are bias in any way has no basis in fact.
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Miles
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« Reply #7 on: October 30, 2014, 01:26:51 PM »

The supposition that PPP polls for the LCV are bias in any way has no basis in fact.
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backtored
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« Reply #8 on: October 30, 2014, 01:29:40 PM »

The supposition that PPP polls for the LCV are bias in any way has no basis in fact.

Didn't they just have Braley up one in Iowa?
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Devils30
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« Reply #9 on: October 30, 2014, 01:31:15 PM »

One problem for the republicans in NC is that hagan seems to be up 1-4 points in every single poll. Probably better odds than having her up 5 in some and down 3 in others.
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Miles
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« Reply #10 on: October 30, 2014, 01:32:04 PM »

The supposition that PPP polls for the LCV are bias in any way has no basis in fact.

Didn't they just have Braley up one in Iowa?

Yep, like almost all IA polls, it was within the MoE.
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backtored
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« Reply #11 on: October 30, 2014, 01:37:53 PM »

The supposition that PPP polls for the LCV are bias in any way has no basis in fact.

Didn't they just have Braley up one in Iowa?

Yep, like almost all IA polls, it was within the MoE.

These LCV polls aren't very good. I suspect that the Survey USA numbers from both states are closer to reality.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #12 on: October 30, 2014, 02:00:09 PM »

How crazy would it be if Tillis somehow won, despite consistently trailing since early summer? Still unlikely, but definitely plausible.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #13 on: October 30, 2014, 02:01:56 PM »

The supposition that PPP polls for the LCV are bias in any way has no basis in fact.
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Consciously Unconscious
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« Reply #14 on: October 30, 2014, 02:11:27 PM »

I'm predicting Hagan will win as of now, but this race is only  tilt D and could easily go either way.  If the Republicans are having a good night, Tillis winning is a real possibility. 
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #15 on: October 30, 2014, 02:27:50 PM »
« Edited: October 30, 2014, 03:06:01 PM by Recalcuate »


The proposition that any poll done for an advocacy group should be marked as partial to that advocacy group is just common sense. The pollster is not necessarily calling the shots in these instances; they are working for a client.

It's different if it's a neutral observer like a TV station as opposed to the LCV or Chamber of Commerce. The red hats on here CORRECTLY point at the Chamber bias all the time.
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Mr. Reactionary
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« Reply #16 on: October 30, 2014, 02:47:29 PM »


The proposition that any poll done for an advocacy group should be marked as partial to that advocacy group is just common sense. The pollster is not necessarily calling the shots in these instances; they are working for a client.

It's different if it's a neutral observer like a TV station as opposed to the LCV or Chamber of Commerce. The red hats on here CORRECTLY point it the Chamber bias all the time.

But that's different ... Chamber of Commerce polls tend to favor Republicans, whereas LCV polls tend to favor Democrats. Therefore a LCV poll is automatically more trustworthy than a Chamber of Commerce Poll. Don't you see the logic?
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #17 on: October 30, 2014, 02:59:37 PM »

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Recalcuate
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« Reply #18 on: October 30, 2014, 03:08:51 PM »


The proposition that any poll done for an advocacy group should be marked as partial to that advocacy group is just common sense. The pollster is not necessarily calling the shots in these instances; they are working for a client.

It's different if it's a neutral observer like a TV station as opposed to the LCV or Chamber of Commerce. The red hats on here CORRECTLY point it the Chamber bias all the time.

But that's different ... Chamber of Commerce polls tend to favor Republicans, whereas LCV polls tend to favor Democrats. Therefore a LCV poll is automatically more trustworthy than a Chamber of Commerce Poll. Don't you see the logic?

Unfortunately, all I see is logic and a desire for intellectual consistency. That's not to say that PPP ultimately called the shots with the LCV polls. However, there should be full disclosure here. The polls were done for a D-leaning group. Caveat Buck emptor.
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #19 on: October 30, 2014, 03:14:51 PM »


Exactly that.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #20 on: October 30, 2014, 03:25:57 PM »

New Poll: North Carolina Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2014-10-29

Summary: D: 47%, R: 46%, I: 4%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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SPC
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« Reply #21 on: October 30, 2014, 04:19:06 PM »

How crazy would it be if Tillis somehow won, despite consistently trailing since early summer? Still unlikely, but definitely plausible.

If that does happen (which I would assign roughly the same probability as Udall winning re-election) I can guarantee that the reds on this board will not posit that pollsters are systematically biased against Republicans in North Carolina.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #22 on: October 30, 2014, 04:28:43 PM »

Guys, commissioned or not, PPP is not gonna be shovelling out junk results just to make Dems feel good 5 days before an election. They care too much about their accuracy.

You know, unlike the Republican pollsters which have no problem showing Todd Akin winning or Rick Santorum within the MoE, Democratic pollsters have shame.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #23 on: October 30, 2014, 04:30:04 PM »

Guys, commissioned or not, PPP is not gonna be shovelling out junk results just to make Dems feel good 5 days before an election. They care too much about their accuracy.

You know, unlike the Republican pollsters which have no problem showing Todd Akin winning or Rick Santorum within the MoE, Democratic pollsters have shame.

Link
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IceSpear
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« Reply #24 on: October 30, 2014, 04:33:20 PM »

Guys, commissioned or not, PPP is not gonna be shovelling out junk results just to make Dems feel good 5 days before an election. They care too much about their accuracy.

You know, unlike the Republican pollsters which have no problem showing Todd Akin winning or Rick Santorum within the MoE, Democratic pollsters have shame.

Link

"August"

I'm referring to the Wenzel polling showing Akin up 4, that was released a couple days before he got curbstomped by 16.
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