SurveyUSA last had Orman up by five and at 47%. Wonder where most of those undecided voters are going to go: to the Bob Dole-endorsed candidate or Obama's choice?
Hmm, considering more undecideds self-idenitfy as liberals/moderates than conservatives...
I know SUSA crosstabs are always wacky, but is it realistic that Perdue is winning the early vote 54/44?
I'd be fine with letting this poll be true if the republicans are okay with letting that alaska poll be true.
Is this poll partisan affiliated? Is there an established polling consensus for this race that this poll is substantially deviating from?
What is your point? I already acknowledged that the fact that Roberts has a deficit (albeit a statistically insignificant one) at this point is disconcerting.
My point is that in that post you were apparently questioning whether or not LePage being up ten differed from the polling consensus. We all have inconsistencies. 
That was a poor choice of words on my part. I did not think that LePage was actually ahead 10 points, but that such a poll would be indicative of a slight LePage advantage, given that the consensus is a dead heat. Begich's 10 point lead on the other hand came from a partisan firm at a time when every other pollster showed a 3-5 point Sullivan advantage, and thus I was skeptical. However, given that a more recent nonpartisan poll have given a similar result, I am willing to put aside my initial misgivings about the Alaska poll, as my prediction indicates.
