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  KS-SUSA: Orman +2
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Author Topic: KS-SUSA: Orman +2  (Read 1740 times)
RogueBeaver
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« on: October 28, 2014, 05:04:45 pm »

44/42.
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International Brotherhood of Bernard
interstate73
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« Reply #1 on: October 28, 2014, 05:06:51 pm »

#Ormantum
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #2 on: October 28, 2014, 05:07:15 pm »

Dang undecideds, making me nervous.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #3 on: October 28, 2014, 05:09:45 pm »

Stupendous news! Gregory the Gallant will be a great senator.
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Wherever you want to go, you can't go there!
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #4 on: October 28, 2014, 05:10:04 pm »


http://youtu.be/ArC7XarwnWI
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #5 on: October 28, 2014, 05:38:20 pm »

SurveyUSA last had Orman up by five and at 47%. Wonder where most of those undecided voters are going to go: to the Bob Dole-endorsed candidate or Obama's choice?
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KCDem
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« Reply #6 on: October 28, 2014, 05:40:06 pm »

SurveyUSA last had Orman up by five and at 47%. Wonder where most of those undecided voters are going to go: to the Bob Dole-endorsed candidate or Obama's choice?

Fossil in, fossil out.
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #7 on: October 28, 2014, 05:44:33 pm »

SurveyUSA last had Orman up by five and at 47%. Wonder where most of those undecided voters are going to go: to the Bob Dole-endorsed candidate or Obama's choice?

It is a bit nerve wracking that Roberts does not have a plurality by now. Nevertheless, I still concur that Republicans will come home by Election Day.
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Miles
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« Reply #8 on: October 28, 2014, 05:46:54 pm »

SurveyUSA last had Orman up by five and at 47%. Wonder where most of those undecided voters are going to go: to the Bob Dole-endorsed candidate or Obama's choice?

Hmm, considering more undecideds self-idenitfy as liberals/moderates than conservatives...
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Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #9 on: October 28, 2014, 05:48:28 pm »

SurveyUSA last had Orman up by five and at 47%. Wonder where most of those undecided voters are going to go: to the Bob Dole-endorsed candidate or Obama's choice?

Hmm, considering more undecideds self-idenitfy as liberals/moderates than conservatives...

I know SUSA crosstabs are always wacky, but is it realistic that Perdue is winning the early vote 54/44?
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Miles
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« Reply #10 on: October 28, 2014, 05:50:42 pm »

^ Fine, I walked into that one Tongue
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IceSpear
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« Reply #11 on: October 28, 2014, 05:51:19 pm »

SurveyUSA last had Orman up by five and at 47%. Wonder where most of those undecided voters are going to go: to the Bob Dole-endorsed candidate or Obama's choice?

Hmm, considering more undecideds self-idenitfy as liberals/moderates than conservatives...

I know SUSA crosstabs are always wacky, but is it realistic that Perdue is winning the early vote 54/44?

I'd be fine with letting this poll be true if the republicans are okay with letting that alaska poll be true.

Is this poll partisan affiliated? Is there an established polling consensus for this race that this poll is substantially deviating from?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #12 on: October 28, 2014, 05:54:05 pm »

Miles, enough of the independent avatar charade.
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Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #13 on: October 28, 2014, 06:00:04 pm »

SurveyUSA last had Orman up by five and at 47%. Wonder where most of those undecided voters are going to go: to the Bob Dole-endorsed candidate or Obama's choice?

Hmm, considering more undecideds self-idenitfy as liberals/moderates than conservatives...

I know SUSA crosstabs are always wacky, but is it realistic that Perdue is winning the early vote 54/44?

I'd be fine with letting this poll be true if the republicans are okay with letting that alaska poll be true.

Is this poll partisan affiliated? Is there an established polling consensus for this race that this poll is substantially deviating from?

What is your point? I already acknowledged that the fact that Roberts has a deficit (albeit a statistically insignificant one) at this point is disconcerting.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #14 on: October 28, 2014, 06:06:42 pm »

SurveyUSA last had Orman up by five and at 47%. Wonder where most of those undecided voters are going to go: to the Bob Dole-endorsed candidate or Obama's choice?

Hmm, considering more undecideds self-idenitfy as liberals/moderates than conservatives...

I know SUSA crosstabs are always wacky, but is it realistic that Perdue is winning the early vote 54/44?

I'd be fine with letting this poll be true if the republicans are okay with letting that alaska poll be true.

Is this poll partisan affiliated? Is there an established polling consensus for this race that this poll is substantially deviating from?

What is your point? I already acknowledged that the fact that Roberts has a deficit (albeit a statistically insignificant one) at this point is disconcerting.

My point is that in that post you were apparently questioning whether or not LePage being up ten differed from the polling consensus. We all have inconsistencies. Wink
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #15 on: October 28, 2014, 06:22:26 pm »

SurveyUSA last had Orman up by five and at 47%. Wonder where most of those undecided voters are going to go: to the Bob Dole-endorsed candidate or Obama's choice?

Hmm, considering more undecideds self-idenitfy as liberals/moderates than conservatives...

I know SUSA crosstabs are always wacky, but is it realistic that Perdue is winning the early vote 54/44?

I'd be fine with letting this poll be true if the republicans are okay with letting that alaska poll be true.

Is this poll partisan affiliated? Is there an established polling consensus for this race that this poll is substantially deviating from?

What is your point? I already acknowledged that the fact that Roberts has a deficit (albeit a statistically insignificant one) at this point is disconcerting.

My point is that in that post you were apparently questioning whether or not LePage being up ten differed from the polling consensus. We all have inconsistencies. Wink

That was a poor choice of words on my part. I did not think that LePage was actually ahead 10 points, but that such a poll would be indicative of a slight LePage advantage, given that the consensus is a dead heat. Begich's 10 point lead on the other hand came from a partisan firm at a time when every other pollster showed a 3-5 point Sullivan advantage, and thus I was skeptical. However, given that a more recent nonpartisan poll have given a similar result, I am willing to put aside my initial misgivings about the Alaska poll, as my prediction indicates.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #16 on: October 29, 2014, 11:34:00 am »

Orman's 11 best poll showings since mid August:

49
48
48
48
47
46
46
46
46
45
45

Roberts 11 best poll showings since mid August:

49
48
44
44
44
43
42
42
42
42
41

And these numbers don't even include the retracted Rasmussen poll which showed Orman 12% ahead.

In all 16 polls registered with RCP, Orman's median is 46, while Roberts' median is 42. Only two pollsters, a Republican firm and YouGov, are currently showing Roberts ahead. Plus two really old polls by Fox and CNN.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #17 on: October 29, 2014, 11:37:19 am »

Can't feel to good about a lead this small. There's a great chance that Roberts will survive.
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marty
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« Reply #18 on: October 29, 2014, 05:52:25 pm »

I think republicans will come home in the end here.
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KCDem
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« Reply #19 on: October 29, 2014, 06:08:18 pm »

I think republicans will come home in the end here.

Ummm....there are only 5 days left...times is running out for the DC Fossil.
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marty
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« Reply #20 on: October 29, 2014, 06:35:56 pm »

You're insufferable
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