Watching at home or abroad? Can't make sense of Election Night? Using 2001 declaration times, here's a wee guide to the wee hours to check how things are shaping up (Scottish seats which used to declare in droves early on are mostly missing due to boundary changes) Here we have a list of key seats (not all, 5 seats a minute can be declared during the 1am to 3am rush) Based on BBC data, for simplicity's sake!
10.43pm GMT
Sunderland South: LAB
Always a race in Sunderland to see who declares first. No suprises here but may give a brief indication of Lib Dem support in urban areas. North East seats were quick to declare, Tynebridge, Houghton etc so it's worth watching.
12.23am
Portsmouth North: LAB
Conservative target. Need a 7% swing to take it, according to the BBC this swing if repeated would put them at 275 seats in a Hung Parliament. If it falls to the Conservatives, Labour's majority will be in trouble. Unlikely however, it should again give indication of trends.
Torbay: LIB
Also declaring at around this time. Lib Dems will hold it (majority of over 6000), but they may see their vote fall (or rise) The first seat in the Lib/Con battleground in the South East
12.31am
Crosby: LAB
No chance for the Tories here. They need an 11.5% swing to take it. 'If' they did however they would be heading towards a majority of 48. Watch it for that fact alone.
12.40am
Vale of Clywd: LAB
Conservatives need a 9% swing to take this Welsh seat. If it falls along with Portmsouth North it's not looking good for Labour. If both remain Labour then we are likely to see Labour back in power.
12.57am
Western Isles: LAB
One of those bizzare Labour seats. SNP target
12.58am
Yns Mon: LAB
Plaid Cymru target. Labour gained this seat from PC in 2001
1.00am
Birmingham Yardley: LAB
Lib Dem target. They need a 4.5% swing to dislodge Labour here. A swing like this nationwide would see the Liberal Democrats add up to 10 seats to their current total
1.04am
Pendle: LAB
Conservatives need a 5.5% swing to take this Lancashire seat from Labour. The BNP polled 5% here last time. If the Conservatives get this swing nationwide the Labour majority is cut to a small but comfortable 30
1.06am
East Renfrewshire: LAB
Conservatives need a 9.5% swing to take back the old Eastwood bastion of pre-1997
1.07am
Blaydon: LAB
Lib Dem target. Earlier results from the North East should allow us to take a good guess here. They need a big big swing of 11% to take it, but if they did they could well be on their way to 90 seats nationwide. The Lib Dems fate won't be sealed until the South West results come in later, where I have a feeling we will have a few recounts.
1.18am
Oldham East and Saddleworth: LAB
Likely Lib Dem gain on a swing of 3%. BNP came fourth here with 11% last time round.
By this time of the night in 2001 the Conservatives had only won 1 seat, Poole.
1.24am
Newbury: LIB
Conservatives need a 2.5% swing to take back this 'bypassed' seat (get it?..never mind
) from the Lib Dems.
1.27am
Sedgefield: LAB
Tony Blair's seat. Very safe. But his speech will be televised and is the first chance of the night to hear Blair's own thoughts on the results. Check for the body language!
1.34am
Dumfries and Galloway: Notional LAB
The Conservative marginal that is now a Labour marginal after boundary changes. Dead cert Tory gain, but will it just be their first of the night or one of many scalps?
For now i'm calling it a day. I may add more as we go along. Please add your comments and any seats I may have missed, I have a feeling i've missed a few 'pointers.'
