|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
January 15, 2021, 09:21:50 AM
News: Chaos in the capitol: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=422360

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls
  YouGov fourth wave polls
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2]
Author Topic: YouGov fourth wave polls  (Read 2927 times)
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 43,768
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: October 26, 2014, 09:25:06 PM »

These are basically useless.
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,238
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: October 26, 2014, 09:48:45 PM »

my only guess of where the hell those HI numbers came from is that they forgot to include Aiona and just polled Ige vs Hannemann
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,335
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: October 26, 2014, 09:54:28 PM »

I'm skeptical Cutler is only at 7%, as I'd expected Michaud to be up more if so.
Logged
TJ in Oregon
TJ in Cleve
Moderators
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 8,777
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.13, S: 6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: October 26, 2014, 10:24:20 PM »

This is shaping up to be one of the closest elections in the country, though I still think Walker will end up pulling it out. He's led in more polls than Burke has over the last month. Of course they could simply be wrong. There's only one way to find out.

I'd been planning to vote on election day but perhaps I should vote early in case I drop dead between now and next Tuesday and Burke wins by one vote. Tongue
Logged
Vosem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,255
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: October 26, 2014, 10:35:20 PM »


Bro! Good to have you back! You should post more often.
Logged
Recalcuate
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 444


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: October 26, 2014, 10:36:05 PM »

Remember that it's the same people being surveyed again. I see GA's margin shrank a point IIRC.

Yeah. A lot of races where there's supposedly been a lot of movement seem to be pretty static though (Kansas, Massachusetts, Illinois, etc.).

I've always assumed based on where the results started in these polls for many that this was an overly-Republican sample and that the minimal movement is because there are going to be relatively few people chip off if that's the case.

OMG muh unskewing!!! ...

But yeah, in reality I never got the virtue of this style of polling. I mean, I'm no fan of lv screens... but how does this method accommodate changes in turnout models-enthusiasm?

It looks like there is a good bit of special sauce added to their polls. If you look at the Alabama link, it seems like they adjust for gender, party affiliation and ideology. Maybe that's based on some sort of modeling as to turnout and enthusiasm.
Logged
Lief 🐋
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 42,024
Dominica


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: October 26, 2014, 10:58:45 PM »

I'm skeptical Cutler is only at 7%, as I'd expected Michaud to be up more if so.

If other YouGov polls are anything like the one I took for New York, then they only list the two main candidates and then have an other you can check, where you're prompted to write in what "other" candidate you'll vote for. So the third party vote in these things is depressed considerably because of that.
Logged
Mr. Illini
liberty142
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -4.35


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: October 27, 2014, 12:59:24 AM »

This is going to be a fun one.
Logged
wifikitten
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,111
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: October 27, 2014, 06:57:52 AM »

This will probably be the race that keeps me up very late on the 4th.
Logged
I'm a John Fetterman Democrat
20RP12
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,519
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -6.61


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: October 27, 2014, 07:46:03 AM »

This will probably be the race that keeps me up very late on the 4th.

Have alcohol handy.
Logged
I'm a John Fetterman Democrat
20RP12
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,519
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -6.61


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: October 27, 2014, 07:47:32 AM »

Aren't the undecideds on a lot of these like 20%+? I'm pretty sure that's what I saw on the table of all the polls. If so, those are trash and need to be thrown out.
Logged
Andrew1
Rookie
**
Posts: 102
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: October 27, 2014, 12:01:43 PM »

The Governors numbers are now on their website. MN is Dayton 50-41.

Lol at Governor "Steve Parnell" in AK!
Logged
tmthforu94
Atlas Politician
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,081
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.97, S: -1.57

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: October 27, 2014, 12:39:25 PM »

This should be an exciting night - so many states could go either way.

Maryland is turning into a sleeper race, IMO. Hogan seems to have momentum and the numbers there have been tight for a while. Might be too little, too late, but we will see.
Logged
muon2
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,682


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: October 27, 2014, 02:02:18 PM »

I'm skeptical Cutler is only at 7%, as I'd expected Michaud to be up more if so.

If other YouGov polls are anything like the one I took for New York, then they only list the two main candidates and then have an other you can check, where you're prompted to write in what "other" candidate you'll vote for. So the third party vote in these things is depressed considerably because of that.

That is true in IL. YouGov did not include Grimm, so it is hard to read the undecided as a true undecided vote.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 63,487
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: October 28, 2014, 07:21:53 PM »

So... when are you accepting those accolades?
Logged
Pages: 1 [2]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.155 seconds with 14 queries.