YouGov fourth wave polls

[mypalfish]

Walker 46
Burke 45

YouGov weighted an initial 31.1D/36.6I/32.2R (R+1.1) sample  into 35.1D/33.4I/31.4 R (D+3.7).

Walker up 4 with Independents and they show the same odd phenomenon the MU Law poll had of Walker gaining strongly with women (Burke up 3) and Burke gaining strongly with men (Walker up 6).

[IceSpear]

Link?

[mypalfish]

Link?

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/inlineimage/2014-10-24/WI_GOV_4.png

[IceSpear]

Link?

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/inlineimage/2014-10-24/WI_GOV_4.png

It's old, from their last wave of polls.

"Fieldwork: September 20 - October 1"

[mypalfish]

Link?

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/inlineimage/2014-10-24/WI_GOV_4.png

It's old, from their last wave of polls.

"Fieldwork: September 20 - October 1"

No, the numbers are completely different.  The dates just weren't updated yet.  They haven't "officially" released this yet, but all the new Gov races are there.


Phil Kerpen ‏@kerpen  8m8 minutes ago
CONFIRMED: Yesterday's YouGov uploads correct except for fieldwork dates. Compare:
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/inlineimage/2014-10-24/AZ_GOV_4.png …
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/inlineimage/2014-10-25/AZ_GOV_4.png …

[IceSpear]

Link?

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/inlineimage/2014-10-24/WI_GOV_4.png

It's old, from their last wave of polls.

"Fieldwork: September 20 - October 1"

No, the numbers are completely different.  The dates just weren't updated yet.  They haven't "officially" released this yet, but all the new Gov races are there.


Phil Kerpen ‏@kerpen  8m8 minutes ago
CONFIRMED: Yesterday's YouGov uploads correct except for fieldwork dates. Compare:
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/inlineimage/2014-10-24/AZ_GOV_4.png …
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/inlineimage/2014-10-25/AZ_GOV_4.png …

Ah, I see. Is there a way to get all of the results so we can do a megathread?

[Phony Moderate]

mypalfish is responsible for this thread:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=12005.0

[mypalfish]

Link?

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/inlineimage/2014-10-24/WI_GOV_4.png

It's old, from their last wave of polls.

"Fieldwork: September 20 - October 1"

No, the numbers are completely different.  The dates just weren't updated yet.  They haven't "officially" released this yet, but all the new Gov races are there.


Phil Kerpen ‏@kerpen  8m8 minutes ago
CONFIRMED: Yesterday's YouGov uploads correct except for fieldwork dates. Compare:
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/inlineimage/2014-10-24/AZ_GOV_4.png …
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/inlineimage/2014-10-25/AZ_GOV_4.png …

Ah, I see. Is there a way to get all of the results so we can do a megathread?

@kerpen on Twitter posted the results from a number of different races but not all, I don't think.

[mypalfish]

mypalfish is responsible for this thread:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=12005.0

Yes, I am.

And this poll result is still legit.

[IceSpear]

To get the results, paste this link into your address bar, but just change the state abbreviation (except for MN, which isn't there for some reason).

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/inlineimage/2014-10-24/AL_GOV_4.png

AL: Bentley 63-25
AK: Parnell 42-39
AZ: Ducey 50-40
AR: Hutchinson 47-38 (*GAIN)
CA: Brown 55-37
CO: Hickenlooper 48-44
CT: Malloy 42-41
FL: Scott 46-45
GA: Deal 47-43
HI: Ige 54-22 (?!?!)
ID: Otter 53-35
IL: Quinn 45-41
IA: Branstad 50-37
KS: Brownback 43-40
ME: Michaud 37-35 (*GAIN)
MD: Brown 51-38
MA: Coakley 45-41
MI: Schauer 45-44 (*GAIN)
MN: Dayton 50-41
NE: Ricketts 55-35
NV: Sandoval 53-28
NH: Hassan 47-38
NM: Martinez 50-38
NY: Cuomo 56-31
OH: Kasich 54-35
OK: Fallin 56-32
OR: Kitzhaber 48-42
PA: Wolf 52-39 (*GAIN)
RI: Raimondo 40-35
SC: Haley 50-33
SD: Daugaard 54-28
TN: Haslam 58-30
TX: Abbott 57-37
VT: Shumlin 47-35
WI: Walker 46-45
WY: Mead 58-33

[Boston Bread]

It doesn't look too outlierish actually.

[Dixie Reborn]

Switch MA with AK, then it's believable. Also, WTF is going on in Hawaii?

[Lief 🗽]

Doesn't look like there's been much movement since their last polls, unless I'm missing something.

Also I was polled by YouGov for the New York Governor race! They didn't have Hawkins as one of the options (it was Cuomo, Astorino, Other, and Undecided) so I wrote him in after selecting other.

[Adam Griffin]

Remember that it's the same people being surveyed again. I see GA's margin shrank a point IIRC.

[Lief 🗽]

Wow you're the "I will now accept my accolades" guy? It's an honor to meet you, Sir. You're a personal Atlas hero of mine.

[IceSpear]

Remember that it's the same people being surveyed again. I see GA's margin shrank a point IIRC.

The fact that it's the same people being surveyed again makes Hawaii even more weird. Ige was up 6 in the last poll, now he's up 32? Did Aiona kill small children on live TV in the past month?

[Lief 🗽]

Remember that it's the same people being surveyed again. I see GA's margin shrank a point IIRC.

Yeah. A lot of races where there's supposedly been a lot of movement seem to be pretty static though (Kansas, Massachusetts, Illinois, etc.).

[Adam Griffin]

Remember that it's the same people being surveyed again. I see GA's margin shrank a point IIRC.

Yeah. A lot of races where there's supposedly been a lot of movement seem to be pretty static though (Kansas, Massachusetts, Illinois, etc.).

I've always assumed based on where the results started in these polls for many that this was an overly-Republican sample and that the minimal movement is because there are going to be relatively few people chip off if that's the case.

[Person Man]

Again, Hick is looking good.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Remember that it's the same people being surveyed again. I see GA's margin shrank a point IIRC.

Yeah. A lot of races where there's supposedly been a lot of movement seem to be pretty static though (Kansas, Massachusetts, Illinois, etc.).

I've always assumed based on where the results started in these polls for many that this was an overly-Republican sample and that the minimal movement is because there are going to be relatively few people chip off if that's the case.

OMG muh unskewing!!! ...

But yeah, in reality I never got the virtue of this style of polling. I mean, I'm no fan of lv screens... but how does this method accommodate changes in turnout models-enthusiasm?

[IceSpear]

Since this is surveying the same people, "momentum" since the last poll is arguably more important than the toplines, so here it is for the relevant races:

AK: R+8
AR: D+2
CO: None
CT: D+1
FL: D+2
GA: D+1
HI: D+26 (lol)
ID: D+6
IL: D+1
KS: None
ME: D+3
MD: R+4
MA: R+2
MI: R+1
MN: D+2
NH: R+1
NM: R+5
OR: R+1
PA: D+4
RI: D+2
TX: R+6
WI: R+2

I'll do it in the Senate thread in a minute.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

HI: Ige 54-22 (?!?!)
IL: Quinn 45-41
KS: Brownback 43-40
MA: Coakley 45-41

Has KCDem been banned or something?

JUNK POLLS!!

[Bacon King]

Remember that it's the same people being surveyed again. I see GA's margin shrank a point IIRC.

The fact that it's the same people being surveyed again makes Hawaii even more weird. Ige was up 6 in the last poll, now he's up 32? Did Aiona kill small children on live TV in the past month?

Probably they just had terrible response rates messing their Hawaii sample up for some reason

[ElectionsGuy]

Meh

[Devils30]

FL and KS have constantly had an R bias while the opposite seems to be the case for MA.