NC: SUSA: Tie
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Author Topic: NC: SUSA: Tie  (Read 1742 times)
Miles
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« on: October 27, 2014, 10:49:43 AM »
« edited: October 27, 2014, 10:51:40 AM by Miles »

Report.

Hagan (D)- 44%
Tillis (R)- 44%
Haugh (L)- 5%
Other - 3%
Not sure- 5%

10% already voted, and Hagan leads 56/37 with them.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2014, 11:14:48 AM »

No change from SUSA's last highpoint poll.
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #2 on: October 27, 2014, 11:25:35 AM »

Report.

Hagan (D)- 44%
Tillis (R)- 44%
Haugh (L)- 5%
Other - 3%
Not sure- 5%

10% already voted, and Hagan leads 56/37 with them.

There are less than 100 people in the survey voted already if it's 10%. MOE for that is about +/- 10-11%. Pretty much meaningless.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2014, 11:26:35 AM »

"To be included, a voter needed to have voted in both 2010 & 2012, or needed to have registered to vote thereafter."

Junk poll!
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2014, 03:47:10 PM »

New Poll: North Carolina Senator by Survey USA on 2014-10-25

Summary: D: 44%, R: 44%, I: 5%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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jfern
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E: -7.38, S: -8.36

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« Reply #5 on: October 28, 2014, 04:40:32 AM »

101 point race gap. I didn't even know that was possible.

That's nothing. Here's a 173 point gap.

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/states/exitpolls/mississippi.html
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Ljube
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« Reply #6 on: October 28, 2014, 04:55:49 AM »

Well, Tillis still isn't winning enough whites to win this one, but the race seems to have tightened.
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #7 on: October 28, 2014, 10:11:51 AM »

Well, Tillis still isn't winning enough whites to win this one, but the race seems to have tightened.


He's been winning whites consistently by something like 55/35. Its actually pretty on par with 2008; Hagan lost whites 57/39 then.
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #8 on: October 28, 2014, 10:25:14 AM »

Well, Tillis still isn't winning enough whites to win this one, but the race seems to have tightened.


He's been winning whites consistently by something like 55/35. Its actually pretty on par with 2008; Hagan lost whites 57/39 then.

What would 2008 have looked like with a 2010 electorate?
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Miles
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« Reply #9 on: October 28, 2014, 10:45:22 AM »

^ Sadly, there were no exit polls in 2010, so its hard to compare apples to apples.

Bush's margin in 2004, though, was about the same as Burr's and he put together a similar coalition. Bush won the white vote 73/27.

Hagan won the two-party vote 54/46. If Dole ran slightly behind Bush's numbers, and got only 70% of whites, she would have flipped Hagan's margin.
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