So can you Canadians explain the Martin situation?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

There was a little blurb in the StarTrib about this today. Apparentely Martin is in BIG trouble and this is being called Canada's Watergate. It didn't elaborate too much, but apparentely it has do with the Liberal Party taking bribes from ad agencies or something. What's the whole deal?

It also said that the Toronto Star has reported that if new elections were held, the Conservatives would win, although the percentages were small for both (36% for Conservatives, 25% for Liberals). So what's happening and is Martin likely on the way out? It'd be really lousy to see the Conservatives take power over a scandal.

[Jake]

36% for the Conservatives is 7% higher than last election and the 25% for the Liberals is 12% lower. If elections were held, say in a month, the Liberals would likely be trounced by the NDP and Conservatives.

[Gabu]

From what I know so far, it's something like this:

1. The Liberal government set up a sponsorship agency thingy in Quebec.
2. The agency was not supposed to be political in nature.
3. Liberal candidates and party members in Quebec funnelled millions of dollars from this agency into their own pockets.

Or at least, that's what Jean Brault, the guy in charge of the agency, has said.  Testimony is not yet complete; I would prefer to hold off comment until the Gomery Inquiry is finished.

It should be noted that Brault has a June court case date set in which he has to answer for multiple charges of fraud, among other things, so it's not exactly as if his word should be completely taken without corroboration.  It may be true, and in all honestly I wouldn't be surprised, but I'm personally going to hold off judgement.

[cp]

the Liberals would likely be trounced by the NDP and Conservatives.

HA! The idea of the Liberals being trounced by the NDP is like saying the Republicans would be trounced by the Libertarians in 2008. The NDP has a platform and reputation of being rather left wing and despite the unpopularity of the alternatives, they never get more than 1/4 of the Parliament seats. And that hasn't happened in decades; nowadays they barely get 20/301.

If the election is held soon, which is probably will be, the conservatives and liberals will probably just switch positions in terms of seat numbers. No party can win a majority anymore except the liberals and the conservatives would never be popular enough on their own to change that.

cp

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

There was a little blurb in the StarTrib about this today. Apparentely Martin is in BIG trouble and this is being called Canada's Watergate. It didn't elaborate too much, but apparentely it has do with the Liberal Party taking bribes from ad agencies or something. What's the whole deal?

It also said that the Toronto Star has reported that if new elections were held, the Conservatives would win, although the percentages were small for both (36% for Conservatives, 25% for Liberals). So what's happening and is Martin likely on the way out? It'd be really lousy to see the Conservatives take power over a scandal.

Scandals tend to be different in other first world countries.
Major scandal in another 1st world country = a below average day for Tom DeLay.

[Richard]

Lets just put it this way: lots of tax dollars went into corrupt people's pockets in exchange for political favors.  The people are furious with the Liberals.  It is time to wake up, people.

[Hatman 🍁]

Personally, I am very scared about a Conservative government. I don't need any Liberal attack ad to tell me that. (I don't like the Liberals either).  Anyways, many are predicting a spring election, perhaps in June.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Works like this: when Canada does a corruption scandel it does it on a grand scale.

[2952-0-0]

The Liberals only survived the last election because they protrayed the Conservatives as right-wing extremists. Yes, some candidates said:

the death penalty should be reinstated
abortion is as bad as Iraqi insurgents beheading hostages
"to heck with the courts..."
drop the Kyoto accord

And, and, Stephen Harper, the leader of the Conservative Party said the Liberals and NDP "supported" child porn and refused to apoligize.

The Liberals ambushed Conservatives by appearing at their campaign rallies and asking questions.

This election was the most brutal in Canadian history and religious organizations stepped in and urged politicians to tone it down. Unfortunately no one listened and turnout was record low at 60.4%

[Hatman 🍁]

The Liberals only survived the last election because they protrayed the Conservatives as right-wing extremists. Yes, some candidates said:

the death penalty should be reinstated
abortion is as bad as Iraqi insurgents beheading hostages
"to heck with the courts..."
drop the Kyoto accord

And, and, Stephen Harper, the leader of the Conservative Party said the Liberals and NDP "supported" child porn and refused to apoligize.

The Liberals ambushed Conservatives by appearing at their campaign rallies and asking questions.

This election was the most brutal in Canadian history and religious organizations stepped in and urged politicians to tone it down. Unfortunately no one listened and turnout was record low at 60.4%

It was a record low because it was in late June.

[Gabu]

The Liberals only survived the last election because they protrayed the Conservatives as right-wing extremists. Yes, some candidates said:

the death penalty should be reinstated
abortion is as bad as Iraqi insurgents beheading hostages
"to heck with the courts..."
drop the Kyoto accord

And, and, Stephen Harper, the leader of the Conservative Party said the Liberals and NDP "supported" child porn and refused to apoligize.

The Liberals ambushed Conservatives by appearing at their campaign rallies and asking questions.

This election was the most brutal in Canadian history and religious organizations stepped in and urged politicians to tone it down. Unfortunately no one listened and turnout was record low at 60.4%

It was a record low because it was in late June.

Oddly enough, our "record low" was about 4% higher than the American election.

[Jake]

the Liberals would likely be trounced by the NDP and Conservatives.

HA! The idea of the Liberals being trounced by the NDP is like saying the Republicans would be trounced by the Libertarians in 2008. The NDP has a platform and reputation of being rather left wing and despite the unpopularity of the alternatives, they never get more than 1/4 of the Parliament seats. And that hasn't happened in decades; nowadays they barely get 20/301.

If the election is held soon, which is probably will be, the conservatives and liberals will probably just switch positions in terms of seat numbers. No party can win a majority anymore except the liberals and the conservatives would never be popular enough on their own to change that.

cp

This election later this year most likely, will produce one of the biggest electoral shifts in a long time. Liberals will be hurt badly by the NDP in Ontario, British Columbia, and the North and the Conservatives will gain even more seats in the West and Ontario. IMO, the Conservatives will come close to, if not winning, a majority, and the Bloc will produce the Official Oppoisition.

Estimates IMO:
Conservatives c.150
Bloc   c.55
Liberals c.50
NDP c.45

[Gabu]

This election later this year most likely, will produce one of the biggest electoral shifts in a long time. Liberals will be hurt badly by the NDP in Ontario, British Columbia, and the North and the Conservatives will gain even more seats in the West and Ontario. IMO, the Conservatives will come close to, if not winning, a majority, and the Bloc will produce the Official Oppoisition.

Estimates IMO:
Conservatives c.150
Bloc   c.55
Liberals c.50
NDP c.45

I'm not so sure about those numbers.  The results from the last election were as follows:

Liberals - 135 seats - 36.71%
Conservatives - 99 seats - 29.61%
Bloq - 54 seats - 12.40%
NDP - 19 - 15.69%

My personal prediction is that the Liberals and Conservatives would more likely just flip their seat counts if an election were held today.  36% is not a high enough percentage of the popular vote to make a majority government likely.  The Liberals would maybe lose ten seats or so to the NDP, but not in the realm of thirty.  I don't see the NDP holding nearly a larger presence in Parliament than the Liberals, even after a scandal like this.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There could be a big turnover in seats: if the NDP poll where they are now in the election, they'll win a load of seats off the Reformatories out West... while if the Reformatories poll what they are at now in the election they'll win a load of seats off the Liberals in Ontario...

[Blerpiez]

If the Conservtives form a minority government, will they be able to govern effectively?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If the Conservtives form a minority government, will they be able to govern effectively?

Depends if they can get a deal with le Bloq or not. That Duceppe is basically the most powerful man in Canada right now is pretty scary...

[Hatman 🍁]

Something to note about the NDP. They came in 2nd in 12 seats by less than 1,000 votes last election.  So a small % increase in the vote will give them 12+ seats at least. Although, it stops in the mid-30's and 40 seats become out of the question. 

As for the Bloc, I can't see them getting many more seats than they do now, maybe a few but not many. 

And for the tories, I cannot honestly find 54 seats (what they need to gain for a majority)  in the country that they can gain.

[2952-0-0]

If the Conservtives form a minority government, will they be able to govern effectively?

Nope. The Tories are too anti-Quebec and their govt would collapse within less than a year or so.

[minionofmidas]

Isn't this the same scandal that was already around before the elections last year?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Isn't this the same scandal that was already around before the elections last year?

Basically. But the sh*t has really hit the fan recently...

[Gabu]

Isn't this the same scandal that was already around before the elections last year?

Yes, but nobody ever had a concrete idea regarding what happened at that time.  All we knew was that money had gone missing.

It's still not entirely crystal clear whether or not anything can be traced to Martin, but it's not like voters have ever been one to exercise restraint and logic.

[Storebought]

Isn't this the same scandal that was already around before the elections last year?

Yes, but nobody ever had a concrete idea regarding what happened at that time.  All we knew was that money had gone missing.

It's still not entirely crystal clear whether or not anything can be traced to Martin, but it's not like voters have ever been one to exercise restraint and logic.

Silly question, but what does the PPT in your sig stand for? Everytime I see it I think of a PowerPoint presentation

[DanielX]

Isn't this the same scandal that was already around before the elections last year?

Yes, but nobody ever had a concrete idea regarding what happened at that time.  All we knew was that money had gone missing.

It's still not entirely crystal clear whether or not anything can be traced to Martin, but it's not like voters have ever been one to exercise restraint and logic.

Silly question, but what does the PPT in your sig stand for? Everytime I see it I think of a PowerPoint presentation

He's President Pro Tempore of the Atlasian Senate.